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Tim Hudson in the second half

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Tim Hudson in the second half

Postby mushman05 » Tue Jul 11, 2006 1:33 pm

What are your guys thoughts? After a brutal start, Huddy strung together a nice month of May but just completely bottomed out (along with my team) in June...

I own Huddy in a keeper league and I've tried to move him for basically peanuts in recent weeks and there are just no takers.

Do you guys think he strings together a run of sild starts in July/August or is this basically the beginning of the end of Hudson's days as a serviceable middle tier fantasy starter?
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Tue Jul 11, 2006 1:49 pm

Hudson is a decent SP now but nothing more. His k/9 and k/bb ratios are pedestrian at best but his gb% allows him to suppress extra base hits to the point that he can get by with slightly lower than acceptable k/9 and k/bb ratios. His larger number of balls in play make him susceptible to the occassional hit parade but I wouldn't say his days as a serviceable middle tier fantasy starter are over...well, at least not in 12 team h2h leagues where teams are carrying somewhere near the top 84-96 SP's on their rosters. He's just not the guy that was hyped big-time in Oakland anymore. In fact, none of the 'Big Three' from Oakland were as good as advertised. But all 3 still are serviceable SP's (although Mulder's injury may change that for him) with Zito being at the top of that group.
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Postby Snakes Gould » Tue Jul 11, 2006 1:49 pm

The Loveable Losers wrote:Hudson is a decent SP now but nothing more. His k/9 and k/bb ratios are pedestrian at best but his gb% allows him to suppress extra base hits to the point that he can get by with slightly lower than acceptable k/9 and k/bb ratios. His larger number of balls in play make him susceptible to the occassional hit parade but I wouldn't say his days as a serviceable middle tier fantasy starter are over...well, at least not in 12 team h2h leagues where teams are carrying somewhere near the top 84-96 SP's on their rosters. He's just not the guy that was hyped big-time in Oakland anymore. In fact, none of the 'Big Three' from Oakland were as good as advertised. But all 3 still are serviceable SP's (although Mulder's injury may change that for him) with Zito being at the top of that group.


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Postby Ranger Roto » Tue Jul 11, 2006 5:51 pm

Ditto.

I was happy to deal Hudson a couple weeks ago.
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Postby Mreater71 » Thu Jul 13, 2006 11:18 am

I'm hoping he comes out a lot better in the second half for my fantasy team's sake. Could use some better numbers by him compared to his first half!
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Postby bjc3345 » Fri Jul 14, 2006 7:47 am

I do disagree with the comment that the big 3 weren't as good as advertised. break them up and analyze them from a fantasy baseball standpoint (c'mon - its "fantasy") and you are right - but in real baseball terms - to go zito, hudson, mulder back to back to back - tough to beat them.

and please - to dismiss hudson as hype is absurd. the guy hasn't had a lineup with a bat in it for about 5 years when the a's were unloaded one young superstar after another (damon, giambi, tejada...). the guy hasn't even been close to a .500 season...

bottomline - he will turn it around the second half, get over .500 for the year.
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Postby d18Mike » Fri Jul 14, 2006 8:52 am

Having the 1927 Yankees around him can't reverse his skills decline.

Virtually all of Hudon's key stats have been eroding since his first year in OAK. His K/9 has gone from 8 in his first year to 7, then to 6 and now it hovers in the very pedestrian 5 range -- it even dipped to the perilous 4 territory at one point. His GB rate is down and his LD rate is up. The only thing that has improved in ATL is his BB/9 -- but that small improvement happened after he move to the NL (no DH).

No one is saying he isn't a solid pitcher. Clearly he is. But he's a mid-rotation guy on most solid teams, not an elite by any measure.
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Postby bravo369 » Fri Jul 14, 2006 9:20 am

He has pitched fairly well in the 2nd half in his career...or at least from a quick look at it. I think also the fact that the braves bullpen stinks, if he is having a good game or if the braves are up by 10 runs, cox will let him go for the CG. That will also add some points on.
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Postby bjc3345 » Fri Jul 14, 2006 10:47 am

"key stats". if k/9 and bb/9 are more "key" than era or W v. L than I think you are misguided. his era in comparison to the league average has been pretty consistent - this year aside. a slight drop -but by no means significant.

you are referrig to key fantasy stats. while some of them translate to era - that is the much more telling statistic, along with wins.

take a guy like glavine this year for example. his "key stats" k/9 and bb/9 suck - but he is 11-2 witha solid era. I think the mets would have rathered had him for the first half of the year than peavy who's "key stats" are much more impressive.

I understand peavy is a stud and glavin is an aging veteran - but who would you have rathered had in the first half of the year??
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Fri Jul 14, 2006 11:07 am

bjc3345 wrote:"key stats". if k/9 and bb/9 are more "key" than era or W v. L than I think you are misguided. his era in comparison to the league average has been pretty consistent - this year aside. a slight drop -but by no means significant.

you are referrig to key fantasy stats. while some of them translate to era - that is the much more telling statistic, along with wins.

take a guy like glavine this year for example. his "key stats" k/9 and bb/9 suck - but he is 11-2 witha solid era. I think the mets would have rathered had him for the first half of the year than peavy who's "key stats" are much more impressive.

I understand peavy is a stud and glavin is an aging veteran - but who would you have rathered had in the first half of the year??


I would recommend reading the information at The Hardball Times, Baseball Prospectus as well as Rotowire. Also if you click into my article list in my sig I've got a couple articles - Projecting Wins and Projecting Whip - that will give you some good information as well pertinent to the current discussion.

Long story short though ERA and wins are very poor indicators of talent and are both littered with noise mostly created by luck. While a guy can get lucky for a year or two the component numbers (k/9, bb/9, hr/9 and gb%) must be there or the ERA and wins will regress to the mean. Chasing pitchers that have good ERA/wins (when the ERA is not supported by the component numbers and the wins aren't supported by the pitcher's skill and team run support) is not a good approach to fantasy OR real baseball.
Last edited by The Loveable Losers on Fri Jul 14, 2006 11:14 am, edited 2 times in total.
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