bjc3345 wrote:"key stats". if k/9 and bb/9 are more "key" than era or W v. L than I think you are misguided. his era in comparison to the league average has been pretty consistent - this year aside. a slight drop -but by no means significant.
you are referrig to key fantasy stats. while some of them translate to era - that is the much more telling statistic, along with wins.
take a guy like glavine this year for example. his "key stats" k/9 and bb/9 suck - but he is 11-2 witha solid era. I think the mets would have rathered had him for the first half of the year than peavy who's "key stats" are much more impressive.
I understand peavy is a stud and glavin is an aging veteran - but who would you have rathered had in the first half of the year??
I would recommend reading the information at The Hardball Times
, Baseball Prospectus
as well as Rotowire
. Also if you click into my article list in my sig I've got a couple articles - Projecting Wins and Projecting Whip - that will give you some good information as well pertinent to the current discussion.
Long story short though ERA and wins are very poor indicators of talent and are both littered with noise mostly created by luck. While a guy can get lucky for a year or two the component numbers (k/9, bb/9, hr/9 and gb%) must be there or the ERA and wins will regress to the mean. Chasing pitchers that have good ERA/wins (when the ERA is not supported by the component numbers and the wins aren't supported by the pitcher's skill and team run support) is not a good approach to fantasy OR real baseball.
Last edited by The Loveable Losers on Fri Jul 14, 2006 11:14 am, edited 2 times in total.