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Pence, Bruce, Dukes, Tabata, McCutchen?

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Pence, Bruce, Dukes, Tabata, McCutchen?

Postby jnormy » Tue Jul 11, 2006 8:59 am

Please rank these OF prospects and, if possible, some commentary as to why. Thanks!

Hunter Pence, Hou
Jay Bruce, Cin
Elijah Dukes, TB
Jose Tabata, NYY
Andrew McCutchen, Pit
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Postby PlayingWithFire » Tue Jul 11, 2006 7:12 pm

1. Hunter Pence-closer to the majors, tremendous power potential and will hit in Minute Maid park.
2. Jay Bruce-toolsy OF drafted out of HS, still in A ball but doing great there
3. Jose Tabata-toolsy OF, I just prefer Bruce better than him.
4. Elijah Dukes-It's hard to ignore what he's doing, but the guy doesn't have his head on straight.
5. McCutchen-speedy guy, doing okay in his first pro year but not as good as Bruce or Tabata
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Postby rmande09 » Tue Jul 11, 2006 11:27 pm

PlayingWithFire wrote:1. Hunter Pence-closer to the majors, tremendous power potential and will hit in Minute Maid park.
2. Jay Bruce-toolsy OF drafted out of HS, still in A ball but doing great there
3. Jose Tabata-toolsy OF, I just prefer Bruce better than him.
4. Elijah Dukes-It's hard to ignore what he's doing, but the guy doesn't have his head on straight.
5. McCutchen-speedy guy, doing okay in his first pro year but not as good as Bruce or Tabata


Ay carumba.

1. Jay Bruce - Tough call here. I give it to Bruce, by a little. Still a ways away, but could become a LEGIT power threat as he grows into his body. Probably won't run much as he gets bigger (6'3''), but should be an unbelievable player.

2. Jose Tabata - Again, a ways away, but the ceiling is through the roof. Could hit 40+ homers annually. Manny Ramirez comps are whispered, but people hate to do that because he's 17 in A-ball.

3. Elijah Dukes - STUD. MLB ready. Won't put up great power numbers, but should hit for average and steal bases. Has good power potential, not through the roof though. Where he fits, I don't know. Could be traded. Needs to get his stuff together.

4. Andrew McCutchen - Still very young, very fast, and his power is developing very well. Could be a five-category player. Average doesn't look great in first full season, but everything else is there, and his power has been utterly impressive.

5. Hunter Pence - Not much closer to being MLB ready than Bruce or McCutchen, ceiling is not so high. Does have very good power, but lots of Ks, lack of patience, and inability to hit for average question whether he'll be a regular.
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Postby jnormy » Tue Jul 11, 2006 11:35 pm

Thanks for the input guys. I'm leaning toward Bruce, I think... was in both of your top two, and he was my frontrunner by a whisker before I posted this question. Anyone else?
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Postby Mean One » Wed Jul 12, 2006 1:59 am

If you need help in the immediate future, I like:

Pence
Dukes


If you can stand to wait 2-3 years possible, I like:

McCutchen
Bruce
Tabata
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Postby rmande09 » Wed Jul 12, 2006 5:31 pm

Mean One wrote:If you need help in the immediate future, I like:

Pence
Dukes


If you can stand to wait 2-3 years possible, I like:

McCutchen
Bruce
Tabata


I hope you don't mean in that order. McCutchen will not hit for much power in the big leagues, is very fast, and has a low contact rate with a not-so-great eye. Not to mention his hitting skills are no where near Bruce's or Tabata's.

Dukes is light-years ahead of Pence. Dukes could easily be in the Devil Rays' lineup now, at 21, and be solid. Pence would be awful in Houston. Still has a long ways to go and it's questionable whether he has the talent to be a successful big leaguer.

Bruce should be the first guy you take, and Tabata second.
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Postby J35J » Wed Jul 12, 2006 5:48 pm

rmande09.........I'm not saying I would take Pence first here but why would he be bad in Houston if called up later in the season?

Career minor leagues.....

986 ABs
.306 avg
59 HR
58 2B
190 RBI
180 R
.960ish OPS
110/194 BB/SO
80% contact rate

Thats an average of .306 33hr 106rbi 101r 61BB 108SO (for 550 ABs)

I'd say thats not to bad. Maybe its just compared to the young studs in Bruce, Tabata, Dukes that you are saying this but it comes across as Pence being garbage?

I'm not saying that I know any better and not really questioning what you know, just curious as to why the numbers show a solid player and your not too high on him.....

Thanks
Jason
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Postby TurdFerguson » Wed Jul 12, 2006 6:17 pm

I dont really agree with what he is saying either.Pence could be a really good player and is putting up the numbers to prove it.I think you could make a statement about his K rate
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Postby Galt » Wed Jul 12, 2006 11:02 pm

Pence is also a year or more closer to the majors than Dukes, and probably 3 years ahead of Tabata, Bruce, or McCutchen.

I think that most people tend to overvalue 19 year olds compared to guys who are more projectable and closer to the majors. I'd rather take 90% of a B than 70% of an A especially when I get the B 3 years sooner.
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Postby rmande09 » Thu Jul 13, 2006 12:21 am

Galt wrote:Pence is also a year or more closer to the majors than Dukes, and probably 3 years ahead of Tabata, Bruce, or McCutchen.

I think that most people tend to overvalue 19 year olds compared to guys who are more projectable and closer to the majors. I'd rather take 90% of a B than 70% of an A especially when I get the B 3 years sooner.


Ay.

First, I apologize for sounding as though I was dismissing Pence. Fact is, he doesn't have age on his side, and his track record isn't proven.

From what I know of, the Texas League is a hitter's league. Hence the dramatic increase in power. Though he is a big boy, I do not think he will hit more than 20-25 annually. And his K rate has increased at each level, as his power has increased, which indicates that it will continue to increase as he progresses, which is not a good thing.

Pence is also at least a year away. Dukes is raking at AAA Durham, is 21, and is ready NOW (three years? Are you serious?). If it wasn't for all his attitude problems, he would have a very good chance of being up with the Big league club. As it stands now, he should get a chance in September, and could be dealt simply because of the logjam in Tampa's OF. But the sky is the limit for this kid - when all is said and done, he could end up being the best player out of any current prospect (including Delmon Young).

Bruce and Tabata are still years away (Tabata 3, Bruce 2). They could end up pulling an Ian Stewart and falling apart, but all signs point towards superstar status. What Tabata is doing right now at 17 is unparalleled - as I said earlier, few scouts want to say this but can't help but think it - he comps very well to Manny Ramirez. Physically, tools-wise, approach, everything. All signs point to him being a superstar.

Bruce is a stud. He's putting up better numbers than Upton and Maybin at the same level at the same age. There is no question in my mind that he should be rated ahead of Maybin. And if he continues to do what he's been doing, I would not be surprised to see him ranked ahead of Maybin AND Upton on 2007 prospect sheets. Top five is not a far reach at all. Sure, he's a ways away, but can you pass on a guy that scouts put ahead of their poster-child for superstar in Justin Upton?

Pence may crack a top 40, MAYBE. If he continues to hit for power like this all year (read that as 35+ homers). His BB:K rate is what screws people up. Will it be his downfall? Quite possibly. But he could develop enough power and fill out his frame even more so his BB:K rate really doesn't matter all that much. As it stands, he does not have enough power to overcome his rate or his guaranteed low batting average.
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