Lessons Learned - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Lessons Learned

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby ukrneal » Thu Jul 13, 2006 3:06 am

bellings wrote:
jsphlly wrote:
ukrneal wrote:I say it to myself every year, but it is so hard to stick to sometimes. Stick to your gut and your preparations. Don't get sucked into the hype, and it is so easy to do. I made some highly unorthadox picks, but most of them have worked out. I only failed once this year, when I didn't pick Fuentes and I would be kicking myself if not for the 15-20 point lead I have. But, my worst category is saves, so he really would have helped.


It's easier said then done to "stick to your gut".

I spend a decent amount of time each spring training making a cheat sheet for the draft. The sheet's basically a compilation of mock drafts & rankings. Every year, it'll be my pick in the draft and I'm not comfortable with the next best guy on the list.

Picking the guy I'm uncomfortable with hurt me last year, so this year if I wasn't comfortable I moved down the list until I found a guy I wanted.


This is kind of like the "be patient" saying. In my keeper league, the first FA picks are in the 8th round. I was torn between picking Mauer of Carlos Lee with the 2nd pick. Next thing I know, the 1st pick takes Peralta, and since every other descent SS was a keeper, I panicked and took Felipe Lopez. Doh! If only I would have stuck to my list!


Exactly what I mean. Youhave to trust what you've done and not get off course YOUR game plan. Because the minute I do that, I put myself in a hole. And jsphlly is totally right - not easy.
ukrneal
General Manager
General Manager


Posts: 2322
Joined: 29 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby jsphlly » Thu Jul 13, 2006 8:30 am

ukrneal wrote:Exactly what I mean. Youhave to trust what you've done and not get off course YOUR game plan. Because the minute I do that, I put myself in a hole. And jsphlly is totally right - not easy.


Yeah, it's your turn in the draft. The "next" guy on your list is player A, whom you don't feel comfortable taking. About 6-7 lines down is that 3rd year OF you have a real good feeling about. If you pick player A, and miss out on that OF, you're not going to be happy with your team. I've decided its worth reaching slightly to get a team you feel really good about.
jsphlly
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 882
Joined: 28 Feb 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby The Loveable Losers » Thu Jul 13, 2006 12:14 pm

Lots of good stuff I could put here but I'd say that the most important part is to keep good lines of communication open with the other owners. Ask about players on their team and what they'd be interested to trade for them. Ask about what type of players they'd like to get. Be polite, be positive, don't insult people with lowball offers nor try to get one over on someone. And if you don't think you can keep all of the information that you collect about people's trade interests straight then write it all down.

The good will you get by not being a prick will go a long way toward having people at least be willing to entertain trade offers from you. More importantly the information that you've collected may give you the ability to see larger trades that other people might miss out on getting.

Just an example from this year...I knew that one owner was very down on Javier Vazquez and also wanted to dump Peralta. I knew another owner was in firesale mode and as long as I sent him back warm bodies at his positions he'd be willing to sell off Julio Lugo and Ryan Dempster very cheaply. So I made a deal that brought me back Saito, Vazquez and Peralta (among some other minor players) and had me sending out Rollins, Meadows and MacDougal. On its face the trade had me losing a little value but it met my team's needs. And then when I was able to move Peralta and Ken Ray with a minor pick upgrade to pick up Lugo and Dempster I'd basically taken a small downgrade at ss this year, freed up a keeper slot that I needed by dealing Rollins and solidified both my starting rotation and my bullpen.

I wouldn't have been so willing to take the first deal if I didn't think I could make a deal similar to the second but I knew there were actually a few shortstops out there that could at least fill in most of the sb's I'd lose from Rollins. And that type of information comes from keeping open lines of communication and staying positive with the other owners. And just like with real gm's it helps a ton if you're giving information as well as receiving - you have to be willing to pass on some of the information you've gathered that would be useful to the other team while not shooting yourself in the foot and hurting your chances of getting deals that you want done.

So in short I'd say that one of the most under-appreciated fantasy baseball commodities is league information. Especially in an active league knowing what the other owners are trying to accomplish can be just as valuable as knowing who's closing for the Atlanta Braves this week.
The Loveable Losers
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterWeb Supporter
Posts: 7290
Joined: 30 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Cubs Win!!! Cubs Win!!!

Postby schmidty » Thu Jul 13, 2006 3:59 pm

jsphlly wrote:
ukrneal wrote:Exactly what I mean. Youhave to trust what you've done and not get off course YOUR game plan. Because the minute I do that, I put myself in a hole. And jsphlly is totally right - not easy.


Yeah, it's your turn in the draft. The "next" guy on your list is player A, whom you don't feel comfortable taking. About 6-7 lines down is that 3rd year OF you have a real good feeling about. If you pick player A, and miss out on that OF, you're not going to be happy with your team. I've decided its worth reaching slightly to get a team you feel really good about.


You guys have hit on another big one for me this year. In my case, I've learned -- avoid "position runs" in the draft. Trust your preparation, what guys you like, what guys you don't like, and where they should be taken in the draft. Just because other managers start taking a bunch of guys at one position early doesn't mean you should too. Instead of making a bad pick, use their mistake to your advantage and pick a guy who must've dropped past their value.

I learned this the hard way on a couple of teams. I picked Chone Figgins in the 2nd round after an early run on MIs (waaaay too early for him, and with him and my 1st rounder Teix my offense has been crippled all year). I also picked Gagne after a closer run (breaking the "don't draft pitchers with health issues" rule too).

Kind of a related thing I think I've learned from this year's drafts -- be flexible in your draft plan, and worry more about picking the best guys available (at least in the 1st half of the draft) rather than filling your roster. There's some balance of course -- you can't draft 6 1st-basemen or anything. But there's decent guys at every spot either late in the draft or as free agents. I can't help but imagine how much better my team would've been if I drafted a stud then, and "filled in" at 2B with easily available guys later like Uggla, Vidro, Phillips, Lopez, etc.
schmidty
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
Cafeholic
Posts: 1710
Joined: 6 Mar 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby d18Mike » Thu Jul 13, 2006 4:11 pm

I have only one rule: never overpay for pitching.

* Your odds of getting a great pitcher in the 10th round are about the same as the 4th round. Wait. Get the bat instead.

* Closer turover runs at apout 30% a year. Don't overdraft. Some of he best closers this year were WW pickups -- Papelbon, Putz et al. Seems to be true every year.
d18Mike
Major League Manager
Major League Manager


Posts: 1696
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Simulacrum » Thu Jul 13, 2006 4:25 pm

Notes to self for 2007-

1) Don't draft closers

2) Don't draft guys who provide speed only (at least early)

3) Avoid drafting high power, low average guys. They go earlier than they're worth.
Simulacrum
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Chief Pixel PusherCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeInnovative MemberWeb Supporter
Posts: 9875
Joined: 12 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: On a Mission

Postby ukrneal » Thu Jul 13, 2006 5:30 pm

Simulacrum wrote:Notes to self for 2007-

1) Don't draft closers

2) Don't draft guys who provide speed only (at least early)

3) Avoid drafting high power, low average guys. They go earlier than they're worth.


1) I disagree. This can be effective (though I understand what you mean). I have one team where I drafted three top closers in the top 10-12 picks and it has been the solid foundation of my pitching all year long. Although, admittedly, I didn't take my first until the 7th round or so.

2) I agree. I avoid Pierre like the plague in my leagues. I drafted Pods only once and only after the 100 player had been drafted.

3) Totally agree! People get 'big eyes' when they see the likes of Dunn. They usually regret it later. I won't even mention that Mariner guy...
ukrneal
General Manager
General Manager


Posts: 2322
Joined: 29 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby JustAnotherYanksFan » Fri Jul 14, 2006 9:27 am

The two main things I learned this year were:

1. Don't take unproven players too early.

2. The players that everyone just seems to know are going to bust are probably going to bust.


I took Felix in the 4th round this year (keeper league, but we don't keep that many players and I doubt he'll be worth keeping). I won't be doing the same thing with Liriano next year (although he'll probably be kept so it won't be an issue.)

I also got Kent and Pettitte much later than they were usually going (7th and 9th, respectively). So far, they haven't exactly been bargains, in spite of their draft position.
JustAnotherYanksFan
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1004
Joined: 25 Dec 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Starkmadfan » Fri Jul 14, 2006 9:44 am

jsphlly wrote:
ukrneal wrote:Exactly what I mean. Youhave to trust what you've done and not get off course YOUR game plan. Because the minute I do that, I put myself in a hole. And jsphlly is totally right - not easy.


Yeah, it's your turn in the draft. The "next" guy on your list is player A, whom you don't feel comfortable taking. About 6-7 lines down is that 3rd year OF you have a real good feeling about. If you pick player A, and miss out on that OF, you're not going to be happy with your team. I've decided its worth reaching slightly to get a team you feel really good about.


Absolutely agree - I got to be able to look at my team and feel happy about it - that I took players that I felt would be good for me, and not necessarily would be the next best available in draft order.

My best example, I drafted Jojima 4 months or so ago as the 4th best catcher - I could have gotten other big names, but once my top 3 were drafted, I decided I would go with who I'd be happy with even though he was unproven and I wanted Jojima.
Starkmadfan
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 842
Joined: 22 Jun 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Previous

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact