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Lessons Learned

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Postby mikhayl » Mon Jul 10, 2006 2:06 pm

schmidty wrote:
jsphlly wrote:What are some other lessons you guys have learned this season?


Stay away from guys with "health" issues. Unless you're just taking a flier on them as a late-round draft pick or a free agent pick-up. Just not worth the headaches.


I would clarify that. Stay away from the pitchers with health issues, they never seem to work.

Definitely take a gamble on offensive players who missed the prior season or a good part of it. Thome, Rolen, Berkman, Nomar, Magglio, and Ramon Hernandez are enough success stories for me to buy into it.
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Postby jsphlly » Tue Jul 11, 2006 1:04 pm

mikhayl wrote:
schmidty wrote:
jsphlly wrote:What are some other lessons you guys have learned this season?


Stay away from guys with "health" issues. Unless you're just taking a flier on them as a late-round draft pick or a free agent pick-up. Just not worth the headaches.


I would clarify that. Stay away from the pitchers with health issues, they never seem to work.

Definitely take a gamble on offensive players who missed the prior season or a good part of it. Thome, Rolen, Berkman, Nomar, Magglio, and Ramon Hernandez are enough success stories for me to buy into it.


I didn't want any part of Wood, Prior or Burnett this year. I would have taken Gagne if the price was right, but didn't have a great feeling about him.

Last year I think I took too many "risks" and not enough "upside", so this year I limited myself to one "risk pick" which happened to be Thome in the 8th round.

So I agree with mikhayl for the most part, but I would try to limit your risk or at least balance it well with upside or "stable" vets.
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Postby bellings » Tue Jul 11, 2006 1:33 pm

One lesson that I learned is that you must go with the flow when drafting SB's. It doesn't do you any good to win the cat by 100. I was drafting solid 5-cat guys, but Pierre was available super late so I grabbed him with intentions to trade (since I didn't need him). But then no one wanted him, which is another lesson learned. Never draft a guy for the purpose of trading.
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Postby jsphlly » Tue Jul 11, 2006 1:43 pm

bellings wrote:Never draft a guy for the purpose of trading.


That's a good one. I've never actually said it outloud but I could never understand someone who drafted someone they didn't need then said, "Trade bait." Why not just draft the guy you need?!
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Postby garf112 » Tue Jul 11, 2006 2:29 pm

I learned the "be patient" mantra last season, but apparently still didn't totally learn my lesson, as I dropped Alex Rios before the season began because of rumblings of a lack of playing time. The question that I need to ask myself now will be, "Is this player good enough to earn a full-time role, or at least enough at bats to make him useful?" If I had asked myself that question before dropping him, I would have certainly held onto him.

One thing that I have learned over the past couple of years is trust the numbers. That goes for minor and major league numbers. They don't lie. A guy who has had success at AA and above more than likely will have success in the majors. A guy that has an outlier of a year will more than likely regress back to his normal numbers. Young players will almost always improve from year to year, as long as their walk and strikeout totals improve.

Most of all, I have learned that pitching is entirely too unpredictable. Finding the "diamonds in the rough" is tougher but more important on the pitching side. Breakouts are easier to predict on the hitting side, but reading the signs of breakouts for pitchers are almost always correct (increase in k/9 decrease in bb/9) and many of these pitchers start the year on the waiver wire. I am more apt to change my starters and closers because of this.
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Postby SmartassBoiler » Tue Jul 11, 2006 9:59 pm

I took two shallow position studs early in the draft (Jeter, Figgins) which really hurt my HR/RBI offense in the first half, especially with Teixeira stinking up the joint. I will never neglect the power part of my offense like that again in a draft.
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Postby ukrneal » Wed Jul 12, 2006 2:38 am

I say it to myself every year, but it is so hard to stick to sometimes. Stick to your gut and your preparations. Don't get sucked into the hype, and it is so easy to do. I made some highly unorthadox picks, but most of them have worked out. I only failed once this year, when I didn't pick Fuentes and I would be kicking myself if not for the 15-20 point lead I have. But, my worst category is saves, so he really would have helped.
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Postby Niffoc4 » Wed Jul 12, 2006 3:30 am

One of the things I have learned, is (in a keeper league) skill is the most important thing... I stayed away from Utley a couple years ago, because I wasn't sure if he would start with Polanco on the team... boy I wish I had gone for the talent...ironically I have Polanco this year, and it taunts me, since he has not given me what I need from my 2Bmen.
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Postby jsphlly » Wed Jul 12, 2006 8:14 am

ukrneal wrote:I say it to myself every year, but it is so hard to stick to sometimes. Stick to your gut and your preparations. Don't get sucked into the hype, and it is so easy to do. I made some highly unorthadox picks, but most of them have worked out. I only failed once this year, when I didn't pick Fuentes and I would be kicking myself if not for the 15-20 point lead I have. But, my worst category is saves, so he really would have helped.


It's easier said then done to "stick to your gut".

I spend a decent amount of time each spring training making a cheat sheet for the draft. The sheet's basically a compilation of mock drafts & rankings. Every year, it'll be my pick in the draft and I'm not comfortable with the next best guy on the list.

Picking the guy I'm uncomfortable with hurt me last year, so this year if I wasn't comfortable I moved down the list until I found a guy I wanted.
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Postby bellings » Wed Jul 12, 2006 8:28 am

jsphlly wrote:
ukrneal wrote:I say it to myself every year, but it is so hard to stick to sometimes. Stick to your gut and your preparations. Don't get sucked into the hype, and it is so easy to do. I made some highly unorthadox picks, but most of them have worked out. I only failed once this year, when I didn't pick Fuentes and I would be kicking myself if not for the 15-20 point lead I have. But, my worst category is saves, so he really would have helped.


It's easier said then done to "stick to your gut".

I spend a decent amount of time each spring training making a cheat sheet for the draft. The sheet's basically a compilation of mock drafts & rankings. Every year, it'll be my pick in the draft and I'm not comfortable with the next best guy on the list.

Picking the guy I'm uncomfortable with hurt me last year, so this year if I wasn't comfortable I moved down the list until I found a guy I wanted.


This is kind of like the "be patient" saying. In my keeper league, the first FA picks are in the 8th round. I was torn between picking Mauer of Carlos Lee with the 2nd pick. Next thing I know, the 1st pick takes Peralta, and since every other descent SS was a keeper, I panicked and took Felipe Lopez. Doh! If only I would have stuck to my list!
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