As far as shoulder tendinitis goes, listen on the news wires to make sure he does not require cortizone shots. If he does, he could require tendon surgery in a couple of months, or the Padres would shelve him if they fall out of contention. If they just need to ice it after games, then he should be alright.
Long term, I don't like his future. Has a Kerry wood Mechanics look to me.... I think he either has an off and on Wood career or he goes to a closer role and has a decent career, maybe.
basically the WBC started all of his problems. He hasn't had enough rest to heal himself other than being thrown to the end of the rotation. I think a 15 day DL trip would get it done, but as long as peavy can throw the ball Bochey will still keep him in the lineup.
His follow through, he's throwing across his body with the right shoulder whipping him toward the first base line in his release rather than more straight through to the plate, that's basically putting more torque on the shoulder and elbow. It also makes for nastier sliders or curves, but the greater torque on the shoulder and elbow takes a bigger toll on the ligaments, and the ligaments give out faster (usually) than straight follow through pitchers.
Every baseball player (especially pitchers) is damaging his arm to an extent no matter how good his mechanics are because the human body is designed to throw underhand, not overhand, but across the body type throwers usually pay the price sooner.
This eventually means major ligament surgery and a loss of velocity (and thus a less nasty breaking pitch) after recovery and some pitchers adjust to it and some don't. It seems to have sunk Kerry Wood, and Dwight Gooden had a similiar motion, but he had about 7 great years, then his arm gave out and he was just average after that. Pedro Martinez did it, he had some surgeries, lost some velocity and the nasty slider but made up for it by becoming more a location and change of speed pitcher. But for Peavy, there are no guarantees, he could be done, he could have 8 good years in him before he pays for those mechanics, but my guess is less since he's already having issues. The issues could linger, or he could have a major surgery and a long recovery time, and then he'd have to learn how to pitch with less velociy.
The problem is, this can sometimes happen in two stages, sometimes the shoulder gives out, it gets fixed, you adjust, then the elbow gives out, and you lose even more velocity.
To spot these guys, the two tells are: the pitcher falls off the mound towards the baseline, or the curve or slider is unnaturally nasty.
Some guy's have rubber arms and can get away with this longer than others, but this is usually a reliever's mechanics, guys like K-Rod. Relievers can have more years throwing like that because they're throwing fewer innings and spacing those innings out one or two innings at a time. Pitchers throwing 200 innings a year like that 7 or 9 innings at a time will give out much sooner.
I worry about the performance of a lot of guys on my team. Peavy is not one.
While his ERA is about 4.40, that's a statistical freak. If you look at the Sabermetric data (balls in play, strand rates, hit rates etc) .... his expected ERA is below 3.00. The fact that he has a sub 1.2 WHIP and more than 9K/9 are pretty solid indicator. The rest of his BPIs are as good or better than any of his full major league seasons. AND THIS IS ALL WHEN HE WAS "HURTING."
Shoulder tendinitis can be dealt with. Many pitchers have it at some stage. It's not good, of course, but it's managable. And SD seems to be treating it well.
As for his mechanics, you might be right. Tough to generalize. A lot of guys with freaky or violent deliveries and odd batting stances have done pretty well for long periods. I just can't see avoiding him on speculation of a future potential injury.
cakewalk5 wrote:The biggest thing he needs is rest.
As far as shoulder tendinitis goes, listen on the news wires to make sure he does not require cortizone shots. If he does, he could require tendon surgery in a couple of months, or the Padres would shelve him if they fall out of contention. If they just need to ice it after games, then he should be alright.
Well perhaps this all-star break came just at the right time, I did read that now he may pitch Saturday or Sunday, so possibly, just possibly he is feeling better!
Can anyone confirm if it is Sat. or Sun. he may pitch?
Cafe Home
Fantasy Football
Fantasy Basketball
Fantasy Hockey
by Philliebuster » Sun Jul 09, 2006 9:29 pm 
