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5x5: Frank Thomas = Adam Dunn??

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Postby activechamp2006 » Sat Jul 08, 2006 2:04 am

i think they will have similar home run numbers from here on out.. both could knock in around 20+.. rbis go to thomas runs 2 dunn and BA to thomas by a LARGE margin.. i think thomas will be the more valuable player for the rest of this season if he can stay healthy ;-D no one can say hes never put up power numbers like this before..
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Postby Los_Dodgers » Sat Jul 08, 2006 2:23 am

I don't think that Thomas will keep up with Dunn. I project Dunn to have about 45 HRs and I think Thomas will hit around 32 - 34. I also think that Thomas' batting average will be substantially higher, but Dunn's runs will cancel those out. I think that the RBIs will be a wash, with Thomas maybe having a slight advantage.
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Postby activechamp2006 » Sat Jul 08, 2006 2:54 am

Los_Dodgers wrote:I don't think that Thomas will keep up with Dunn. I project Dunn to have about 45 HRs and I think Thomas will hit around 32 - 34. I also think that Thomas' batting average will be substantially higher, but Dunn's runs will cancel those out. I think that the RBIs will be a wash, with Thomas maybe having a slight advantage.


but see that really wouldnt be much better.. were looking at from here on out, not season stats.. even if we went by what you said, which i think is wrong.. thomas would have 13-15 homers from here on out and dunn would have 18.. and theres no way dunns rbis are as good as franks, he just doesnt drive in runs very well.. plus we all know the a's will heat up in the 2nd half, they always seem to do so.. expect frank to be right in the middle of that.. i see frank thomas hitting 17-20.. like i said before if he stays heatlhy 20 is a great possibility.. dunn should be right around the same.. overall itll be like this..
homeruns =
rbis <thomas
runs<<dunn
BA<<thomas

i actually think thomas will end up being the more valuable player from here on out. (not overall season statistics) because he will hit for a MUCH better BA..
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Postby Los_Dodgers » Sat Jul 08, 2006 3:26 am

activechamp2006 wrote:
Los_Dodgers wrote:I don't think that Thomas will keep up with Dunn. I project Dunn to have about 45 HRs and I think Thomas will hit around 32 - 34. I also think that Thomas' batting average will be substantially higher, but Dunn's runs will cancel those out. I think that the RBIs will be a wash, with Thomas maybe having a slight advantage.


but see that really wouldnt be much better.. were looking at from here on out, not season stats.. even if we went by what you said, which i think is wrong.. thomas would have 13-15 homers from here on out and dunn would have 18.. and theres no way dunns rbis are as good as franks, he just doesnt drive in runs very well.. plus we all know the a's will heat up in the 2nd half, they always seem to do so.. expect frank to be right in the middle of that.. i see frank thomas hitting 17-20.. like i said before if he stays heatlhy 20 is a great possibility.. dunn should be right around the same.. overall itll be like this..
homeruns =
rbis <thomas
runs<<dunn
BA<<thomas

i actually think thomas will end up being the more valuable player from here on out. (not overall season statistics) because he will hit for a MUCH better BA..


Well, I see what you are saying, but I'm not sure that Frank will outproduce Dunn by that many in the RBI category, even though Dunn is one of the worst RBI guys in all of baseball with the chances he gets, he has the much better tablesetters, which counts for something. Also, in the past couple weeks, his RBIs have had an upward trend, as he is sometimes hitting singles and doubles even. I wouldn't be surprised if Thomas hurt himself soon, but I don't know how well he will hold up throughout the second half. His power seems to still be there, as he absolutely crushes the balls that he hits out. So, activechamp, if you had Dunn, and tomorrow somebody offered you Thomas for him straight up, would you accept? I know I wouldn't.
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Postby Steve-o » Sat Jul 08, 2006 11:08 am

activechamp2006 wrote:
Los_Dodgers wrote:I don't think that Thomas will keep up with Dunn. I project Dunn to have about 45 HRs and I think Thomas will hit around 32 - 34. I also think that Thomas' batting average will be substantially higher, but Dunn's runs will cancel those out. I think that the RBIs will be a wash, with Thomas maybe having a slight advantage.


but see that really wouldnt be much better.. were looking at from here on out, not season stats.. even if we went by what you said, which i think is wrong.. thomas would have 13-15 homers from here on out and dunn would have 18.. and theres no way dunns rbis are as good as franks, he just doesnt drive in runs very well.. plus we all know the a's will heat up in the 2nd half, they always seem to do so.. expect frank to be right in the middle of that.. i see frank thomas hitting 17-20.. like i said before if he stays heatlhy 20 is a great possibility.. dunn should be right around the same.. overall itll be like this..
homeruns =
rbis <thomas
runs<<dunn
BA<<thomas

i actually think thomas will end up being the more valuable player from here on out. (not overall season statistics) because he will hit for a MUCH better BA..


I think you are making a critical assumption which might not be true. You are assuming that both players will have about 250 AB for the rest of the season. You want to make that assumption for Dunn, fine, but for Thomas? That's more of a risk.

In order to do a more accurate evaluation, I would assume Dunn gets 250 AB while Thomas gets around 200.

So looking at Thomas' stats from the last month and given them a bump a little (based on your favorable projections) we get something like:

.265, 30R, 20 HR, 40 RBI

and Dunn with 250 AB at (again with numbers based on the last month):

.255, 39 R, 20 HR, 47 RBI

Now if Thomas plays 250 AB, his number will be something like:

.265, 39 R, 26 HR, 52 RBI

Which are better then Dunn's.


Thomas is a good second half sleeper though...
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Postby Fade2White12 » Sat Jul 08, 2006 11:32 am

Personally, I don't think Thomas keeps up this pace in the slightest. Again, he is 38 years old and hasn't played a full season since 2003. If you project his stats out from his 1st half stats, yes, he will beat Dunn is some categories. However, we all know that just projecting stats like that usually doesn't work. By season end, I think Dunn will beat Thomas in all stats besides Avg.
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Postby dewey finn » Sat Jul 08, 2006 12:32 pm

Don't forget the K's and BB's
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Postby activechamp2006 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:34 pm

I thought this would be a fun post to bump back up.. Well all you Thomas haters, I hate to say it but so far post allstar break he's outplaying Dunn as I expected..

Big Frank Thomas: 8hr 29rbi 23runs 316BA
Little Adam Dunn: 10hr 27rbi 26runs 274BA

I expected Frank to be leading by quite a bit more in the Rbi department, but i think that will come in time.. So far post allstar they are basicaly a wash in everything but that huge BA dif.
So who will end the season on a higher note? I still have my money on BIG Frank Thomas.
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Postby Guaranteed Loser » Thu Aug 24, 2006 7:48 pm

I have them both, so I hope they battle it out to the end.
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Postby Mreater71 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:30 pm

I never lost faith in Frank. Admitedly, i was getting frustrated at the beginning when he kept going on the DL, so I dropped him a couple of times; but rethought, and still believing he could come back, picked him back up and he has been doing what my expectations thought he would!
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