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5x5: Frank Thomas = Adam Dunn??

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5x5: Frank Thomas = Adam Dunn??

Postby bigh0rt » Fri Jul 07, 2006 5:40 pm

Projecting Dunn and Thomas' numbers out to 550 ABs...

DUNN:
.237 AVG, 49 HR, 100 RBI, 109 R, 4 SB

THOMAS:
.238 AVG, 51 HR, 117 RBI, 88 R, 0 SB

Thomas looks like he could be Dunn Lite, even surpassing him in some areas if he stays healthy this 2nd half. His health is always the question, but when he's at the plate, he rakes for power and drives in runs. I know the projecting to 550 AB's isn't some sort of special formula, and generally I'm against it, but just for argument's sake here, I figured I'd give a go at it, since these guys seemed to be hitting so similarly.

Debate it, argue it, provide some other 'Lite' versions of some heavy hitting (see: heavily valued) counterparts that can be had cheaply, etc. Have fun. ;-D
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Postby A's » Fri Jul 07, 2006 5:48 pm

the stats are possible for thomas if he stays healthy but flip the HR category, dunn will end up with much more than thomas
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Postby brandnew » Fri Jul 07, 2006 6:06 pm

Nice find. I just find it hard for any team to take a .220 average from a player...

Jeff Francoeur could be a cheap source of RBIs. Because he never walks, he has a bunch of ABs (Not PAs) with RISP, leading to more runners being knocked in. If you can live with a .260 average and about 85-90 Rs, he'll give you some nice RBIs.
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Postby bleach168 » Fri Jul 07, 2006 6:27 pm

Both are great players to own. Dunn should be a .250 hitter at least and Thomas has been batting .270 the past two months. Dunn was a little too pricey pre-season, but makes for a good buy low.
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Postby SmartassBoiler » Fri Jul 07, 2006 7:50 pm

bleach168 wrote:Both are great players to own. Dunn should be a .250 hitter at least and Thomas has been batting .270 the past two months. Dunn was a little too pricey pre-season, but makes for a good buy low.


This is worth noting...Thomas' average is dragged down from his horrible slow start. I bet over the rest of the season that Thomas has a higher average by a decent margin.
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Re: 5x5: Frank Thomas = Adam Dunn??

Postby Rohan » Fri Jul 07, 2006 8:05 pm

bigh0rt wrote:Projecting Dunn and Thomas' numbers out to 550 ABs...

DUNN:
.237 AVG, 49 HR, 100 RBI, 109 R, 4 SB

THOMAS:
.238 AVG, 51 HR, 117 RBI, 88 R, 0 SB

Thomas looks like he could be Dunn Lite, even surpassing him in some areas if he stays healthy this 2nd half. His health is always the question, but when he's at the plate, he rakes for power and drives in runs. I know the projecting to 550 AB's isn't some sort of special formula, and generally I'm against it, but just for argument's sake here, I figured I'd give a go at it, since these guys seemed to be hitting so similarly.

Debate it, argue it, provide some other 'Lite' versions of some heavy hitting (see: heavily valued) counterparts that can be had cheaply, etc. Have fun. ;-D


Neither player will maintain those averages. Because they have those averages today, doesn't mean at season end they will have
.238 and .237

I say someone around .270 for the both. Maybe Thomas a little higher.
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Postby bleach168 » Fri Jul 07, 2006 8:05 pm

SmartassBoiler wrote:
bleach168 wrote:Both are great players to own. Dunn should be a .250 hitter at least and Thomas has been batting .270 the past two months. Dunn was a little too pricey pre-season, but makes for a good buy low.


This is worth noting...Thomas' average is dragged down from his horrible slow start. I bet over the rest of the season that Thomas has a higher average by a decent margin.


Yup. Considering he missed most of 2004 and 2005, you have to give him a pass for a poor April. From 4/26 to 7/4, he has hit .275 with 15 HR and 34 RBIs in 138 ABs.
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Re: 5x5: Frank Thomas = Adam Dunn??

Postby bigh0rt » Fri Jul 07, 2006 8:15 pm

Rohan wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:Projecting Dunn and Thomas' numbers out to 550 ABs...

DUNN:
.237 AVG, 49 HR, 100 RBI, 109 R, 4 SB

THOMAS:
.238 AVG, 51 HR, 117 RBI, 88 R, 0 SB

Thomas looks like he could be Dunn Lite, even surpassing him in some areas if he stays healthy this 2nd half. His health is always the question, but when he's at the plate, he rakes for power and drives in runs. I know the projecting to 550 AB's isn't some sort of special formula, and generally I'm against it, but just for argument's sake here, I figured I'd give a go at it, since these guys seemed to be hitting so similarly.

Debate it, argue it, provide some other 'Lite' versions of some heavy hitting (see: heavily valued) counterparts that can be had cheaply, etc. Have fun. ;-D


Neither player will maintain those averages. Because they have those averages today, doesn't mean at season end they will have
.238 and .237

I say someone around .270 for the both. Maybe Thomas a little higher.


Dunn is a career .247 hitter and has never bat higher than .266 in his career. Why ought we assume he's going to bat around .270, when he hasn't even bat .240 through the mid-point? :-?
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Re: 5x5: Frank Thomas = Adam Dunn??

Postby Spedieddie » Fri Jul 07, 2006 10:57 pm

bigh0rt wrote:
Rohan wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:Projecting Dunn and Thomas' numbers out to 550 ABs...

DUNN:
.237 AVG, 49 HR, 100 RBI, 109 R, 4 SB

THOMAS:
.238 AVG, 51 HR, 117 RBI, 88 R, 0 SB

Thomas looks like he could be Dunn Lite, even surpassing him in some areas if he stays healthy this 2nd half. His health is always the question, but when he's at the plate, he rakes for power and drives in runs. I know the projecting to 550 AB's isn't some sort of special formula, and generally I'm against it, but just for argument's sake here, I figured I'd give a go at it, since these guys seemed to be hitting so similarly.

Debate it, argue it, provide some other 'Lite' versions of some heavy hitting (see: heavily valued) counterparts that can be had cheaply, etc. Have fun. ;-D


Neither player will maintain those averages. Because they have those averages today, doesn't mean at season end they will have
.238 and .237

I say someone around .270 for the both. Maybe Thomas a little higher.


Dunn is a career .247 hitter and has never bat higher than .266 in his career. Why ought we assume he's going to bat around .270, when he hasn't even bat .240 through the mid-point? :-?


Thomas is a chronic DL-visitor and has not avoided the DL in recent history, possibly his whole career. Why ought we assume he's going to bat around 550 ABs when he hasn't even kept off the DL through the mid-point? :-D
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Postby Mreater71 » Sat Jul 08, 2006 12:44 am

I agree about Dunn not surpassing the .240 avg. mark, and I think Thomas will reach around the .270 avg. as long as he keeps off the DL. April was a horrible month for him, but as of recent, he has been on a terror and improving his average every week when he plays.
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