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Game on the line; Ortiz? Jeter? Zimmerman????

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Postby Trot Nixon » Sat Jul 08, 2006 1:14 am

Ortiz...don't get me started
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Thanks chipper!!!!

There is such a thing called clutch and David Ortiz is the modern day definition of it
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Postby mrmelo15 » Sat Jul 08, 2006 1:17 am

Hafner? ;-D
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Postby HOOTIE » Sat Jul 08, 2006 1:17 am

BB, i'm not a fan of clutch in bb. Really haven't seen much proof it exists over extended periods.

http://www.geocities.com/cyrilmorong@sb ... clutch.htm

http://www.baseball1.com/bb-data/grabin ... lutch.html


While Ortiz has been clutch in 05 and half of 06, for his career it's a wash.

The 10 best clutch seasons from 00-03 found no Ortiz. The 4th highest clutch season from 00-03 belonged to none other then Arod in 03. Anyone can be clutch in a series or season.

Expect a player's performance in a upcomng clutch ab to be more like his overall performance, then his past clutch performances. (The Book), playing the percentages in BB.
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Postby BronXBombers51 » Sat Jul 08, 2006 1:23 am

HOOTIE wrote:BB, i'm not a fan of clutch in bb. Really haven't seen much proof it exists over extended periods.

http://www.geocities.com/cyrilmorong@sb ... clutch.htm

http://www.baseball1.com/bb-data/grabin ... lutch.html


While Ortiz has been clutch in 05 and half of 06, for his career it's a wash.

The 10 best clutch seasons from 00-03 found no Ortiz. The 4th highest clutch season from 00-03 belonged to none other then Arod in 03. Anyone can be clutch in a series or season.

Expect a player's performance in a upcomng clutch ab to be more like his overall performance, then his past clutch performances. (The Book), playing the percentages in BB.


Thanks for the links. I skimmed through them and they looked really interesting. Going to read through them thoroughly in a little while.

So basically what you're saying is that calling Ortiz (or anyone for that matter) a clutch baseball player is wrong?

You said that he has been clutch for a season and a half...
1.) How can you determine what is and isn't a clutch season?
2.) How long would one have to perform like this in order to be considered a clutch player and has anyone ever done it?
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Postby HOOTIE » Sat Jul 08, 2006 1:47 am

BronXBombers51 wrote:So basically what you're saying is that calling Ortiz (or anyone for that matter) a clutch baseball player is wrong?

You said that he has been clutch for a season and a half...
1.) How can you determine what is and isn't a clutch season?
2.) How long would one have to perform like this in order to be considered a clutch player and has anyone ever done it?


Compare his wOBA in high pressure situations versus his overall wOBA. There is no concrete definition, but usng the 8th inning on with the batting team down 1, 2, or 3 runs. You have to look at careers, you can't cherry pick seasons. If Ortiz is clutch, why hasn't he been his whole career? Has anyone? Open to debate.
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Postby BronXBombers51 » Sat Jul 08, 2006 10:43 am

HOOTIE wrote:
BronXBombers51 wrote:So basically what you're saying is that calling Ortiz (or anyone for that matter) a clutch baseball player is wrong?

You said that he has been clutch for a season and a half...
1.) How can you determine what is and isn't a clutch season?
2.) How long would one have to perform like this in order to be considered a clutch player and has anyone ever done it?


Compare his wOBA in high pressure situations versus his overall wOBA. There is no concrete definition, but usng the 8th inning on with the batting team down 1, 2, or 3 runs. You have to look at careers, you can't cherry pick seasons. If Ortiz is clutch, why hasn't he been his whole career? Has anyone? Open to debate.


Sorry if I sound like an idiot...

What's wOBA and how can I find it in the scenario you suggested (8th inning, down by 1-3). Close and late is slightly different. I'm not sure what wOBA is either...maybe you're just writing it in a different way... :-?
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Postby fitz0527 » Sat Jul 08, 2006 4:27 pm

BronXBombers51 wrote:
TheYanks04 wrote:LOL...I dunno. A-Choke or Dunn in the clutch? Mr. May agaiinst TB vs Mr. K?


A-Rod's the 2nd best player on that list, that should be where he's ranked. Pujols number 1. Ortiz/Manny at 4/5. Bonds in his prime would be number 1 easily but he's struggling this year, so he doesn't get up there. Based on this year, Thome would be close to the top, having a great season.

Don't cry because everybody knows Ortiz > Arod in the clutch
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Postby BronXBombers51 » Sat Jul 08, 2006 5:05 pm

fitz0527 wrote:
BronXBombers51 wrote:
TheYanks04 wrote:LOL...I dunno. A-Choke or Dunn in the clutch? Mr. May agaiinst TB vs Mr. K?


A-Rod's the 2nd best player on that list, that should be where he's ranked. Pujols number 1. Ortiz/Manny at 4/5. Bonds in his prime would be number 1 easily but he's struggling this year, so he doesn't get up there. Based on this year, Thome would be close to the top, having a great season.

Don't cry because everybody knows Ortiz > Arod in the clutch


I'm pretty sure nobody here is crying. As HOOTIE just said, there isn't any evidence to suggest any player is clutch over time. Hitters should be expected to do what they do normally in clutch situations. Read the second link that HOOTIE posted.
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Postby HOOTIE » Sun Jul 09, 2006 2:25 am

wOBA is weighted oba. It's a formula based off run values by events. A bit like ops, but ops has flaws in it.

Retrosheet.org has a history of boxscores to find per game events.

If you want to explore things more, i suggest TangoTigers book, Playing The Percentages In Baseball.
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Postby Phantom Tag » Sun Jul 09, 2006 7:51 am

HOOTIE wrote:The 10 best clutch seasons from 00-03 found no Ortiz.




why would they?


he was getting 300-400 ab's being misused as one half on a platoon
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