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Top 15 Prospects???

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Postby bigken117 » Tue Jul 04, 2006 7:14 pm

1. Delmon Young
2. Justin Upton
3. Alex Gordon
4. Brandon Wood
5. Lastings Milledge
6. Howie Kendrick
7. Cameron Maybin
8. Billy Butler
9. Homer Bailey
10. Phillip Hughes
11. Stephen Drew
12. Andy Marte
13. Mike Pelfrey
14. Chris Young
15. Hunter Pence
16. Ian Stewart
17. Matt Garza
18. Nick Adenhart
19. Jay Bruce
20. Troy Tulowitzki

I probably forgot someone or two - good luck with your draft ;-D
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Postby hybrid » Tue Jul 04, 2006 7:33 pm

rmande09 wrote:Sorry, he hasn't fallen behind. They have gone ahead. Billingsley has lost his control a little bit (4+ BB/9 at AAA), and has been good, but not dominant. Granted, he's still young and in his first year at AAA. His performance in the Majors, though not ready, does not help his prospect status.

Hughes, who just turned 20, has been unreal at A+ and AA. He has plus-plus control and has an exceptionally low BAA, two traits that will complement each other very well. Minus his first couple of starts at AA, Hughes has been lights out and has "broken" through into elite prospect status this season.

Pelfrey, who is 22, has been excellent in his first full season in the pros. Was awesome at A+ with St. Lucie, and again, after a rough outing or two to start his AA career, has been dominant. This less than a year after he was facing middle-of-the-pack college offenses at Wichita State. Control has been a little iffy at AA, averaging around 3.5 BB/9, which is not really bad at all. Lights out stuff as well.

Bailey is my favorite of the three, and is the top pitching prospect in baseball, in my opinion. In his second full season, had a rough start adjusting to A+ in Sarasota. Found his rhythm after April and was dominant. Great control (under 3 BB/9), great BAA, high K rates, two plus-plus pitches. Got the promotion to AA not too long ago, and after three starts, has been UNREAL. No adjusting period, went right in to AA and dominated more advanced, polished hitters from the get-go. 17 innings in 3 starts, a .133 BAA (!!!), only 4 walks, and 22 strikeouts. Hard to argue against that as a 20 year old playing above his age.


So they have gone ahead because they are now doing what Billingsley has already done? Seems pretty odd to me then ...

Pelfrey is older then Billingsley and is just now in AA. I wonder what Billingsley would be doing if he could go back to AA again. I'm pretty sure it would include the word dominant, so it's pretty hard to see your point especially w/ Pelfrey.

I think you can make a better case for Hughes and Bailey though. As they could potentially be there, but 3 dominant starts for Homer doesn't say he is when Billingsley has already done that in AA. Then you also have to take into account injury concerns for Hughes.

I would discuss it more, but I don't have the time at the moment. Overall Billingsley has dominated his level at a young age, just like Hughes/Bailey are doing. So to me you have to wait till they get to more advanced compition before you start saying they are better.
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Postby rmande09 » Tue Jul 04, 2006 7:46 pm

hybrid wrote:
rmande09 wrote:Sorry, he hasn't fallen behind. They have gone ahead. Billingsley has lost his control a little bit (4+ BB/9 at AAA), and has been good, but not dominant. Granted, he's still young and in his first year at AAA. His performance in the Majors, though not ready, does not help his prospect status.

Hughes, who just turned 20, has been unreal at A+ and AA. He has plus-plus control and has an exceptionally low BAA, two traits that will complement each other very well. Minus his first couple of starts at AA, Hughes has been lights out and has "broken" through into elite prospect status this season.

Pelfrey, who is 22, has been excellent in his first full season in the pros. Was awesome at A+ with St. Lucie, and again, after a rough outing or two to start his AA career, has been dominant. This less than a year after he was facing middle-of-the-pack college offenses at Wichita State. Control has been a little iffy at AA, averaging around 3.5 BB/9, which is not really bad at all. Lights out stuff as well.

Bailey is my favorite of the three, and is the top pitching prospect in baseball, in my opinion. In his second full season, had a rough start adjusting to A+ in Sarasota. Found his rhythm after April and was dominant. Great control (under 3 BB/9), great BAA, high K rates, two plus-plus pitches. Got the promotion to AA not too long ago, and after three starts, has been UNREAL. No adjusting period, went right in to AA and dominated more advanced, polished hitters from the get-go. 17 innings in 3 starts, a .133 BAA (!!!), only 4 walks, and 22 strikeouts. Hard to argue against that as a 20 year old playing above his age.


So they have gone ahead because they are now doing what Billingsley has already done? Seems pretty odd to me then ...

Pelfrey is older then Billingsley and is just now in AA. I wonder what Billingsley would be doing if he could go back to AA again. I'm pretty sure it would include the word dominant, so it's pretty hard to see your point especially w/ Pelfrey.

I think you can make a better case for Hughes and Bailey though. As they could potentially be there, but 3 dominant starts for Homer doesn't say he is when Billingsley has already done that in AA. Then you also have to take into account injury concerns for Hughes.

I would discuss it more, but I don't have the time at the moment. Overall Billingsley has dominated his level at a young age, just like Hughes/Bailey are doing. So to me you have to wait till they get to more advanced compition before you start saying they are better.


Pelfrey is in his first full season of pro ball. It's unfair to compare those two on their ages because Pelfrey went to college and Billngsley was drafted right out of high school. He has three years more experience pitching in the pros.

Hughes and Bailey are simply more projectable than Billingsley - better size, better stuff, better control. It's hard to argue with that. Not saying Billingsley doesn't have excellent stuff - he does - but Hughes and Bailey are off the charts.

The one guy who I would say is arguable is Pelfrey. He is older, but, like I said, a year ago he was facing guys who wouldn't even succeed at SS ball, and now he's dominating AA hitters. He's also got phenomenal size and outstanding stuff. And he's putting up ridiculous numbers in his first season of pro ball.

AND... Billingsley did hurt his stock a little with a bad pro debut, and he wasn't exactly dominating in AAA, though he was good and is young.

It will be close. It's not like I ranked Billingsley way below those three guys - I ranked him immediately behind them. It's just my personal preference.
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Postby hersch223 » Tue Jul 04, 2006 9:35 pm

A lot of great help here, this is why I love the Cafe. ;-D

Quick question on Andy Marte, does he still hold rookie eligibility? That's a pre-requisite for the draft, and I wasn't quite sure.
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Postby rmande09 » Tue Jul 04, 2006 9:52 pm

hersch223 wrote:A lot of great help here, this is why I love the Cafe. ;-D

Quick question on Andy Marte, does he still hold rookie eligibility? That's a pre-requisite for the draft, and I wasn't quite sure.


Sure does, hasn't participated in the Bigs yet. He should probably be up there somewhere on my list as well.
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Postby bigken117 » Tue Jul 04, 2006 10:08 pm

hersch223 wrote:A lot of great help here, this is why I love the Cafe. ;-D

Quick question on Andy Marte, does he still hold rookie eligibility? That's a pre-requisite for the draft, and I wasn't quite sure.


Yes he does...he only got 57 AB in limited action last season so he still has his rookie eligibility.

If that's the criteria for your draft, and it doesn't matter if they are already in The Show, then add Billingsley, Hamels, Weaver, Lester, Kemp, and Morales to your list.
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Postby hersch223 » Tue Jul 04, 2006 10:37 pm

No, we can only choose guys that are in the minors. We put the rookie eligibility rule in so that nobody would take veterans in the minors on rehab assignments.

Seeing Billingsley, Hamels, Weaver, Lester etc. called up right before your draft is a definite bummer :-/

It looks like a good list guys, thanks a bunch.
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Postby hybrid » Tue Jul 04, 2006 11:24 pm

rmande09 wrote:Pelfrey is in his first full season of pro ball. It's unfair to compare those two on their ages because Pelfrey went to college and Billngsley was drafted right out of high school. He has three years more experience pitching in the pros.

Hughes and Bailey are simply more projectable than Billingsley - better size, better stuff, better control. It's hard to argue with that. Not saying Billingsley doesn't have excellent stuff - he does - but Hughes and Bailey are off the charts.

The one guy who I would say is arguable is Pelfrey. He is older, but, like I said, a year ago he was facing guys who wouldn't even succeed at SS ball, and now he's dominating AA hitters. He's also got phenomenal size and outstanding stuff. And he's putting up ridiculous numbers in his first season of pro ball.

AND... Billingsley did hurt his stock a little with a bad pro debut, and he wasn't exactly dominating in AAA, though he was good and is young.

It will be close. It's not like I ranked Billingsley way below those three guys - I ranked him immediately behind them. It's just my personal preference.


You know Billingsley in his first season in pro ball was in High A and AA also, yet was basically 3 years younger. It's not like he had a slow start and was in A ball the first year, Hughes and Bailey both were. So to me it's perfectly easy to compare him to Pelfrey, who had 3 years to hone his craft while Billingsley took it all on in his 1st pro season. Pelfrey has a great FB, but I wouldn't call his off speed stuff "outstanding". His change when it is on can be pretty good, but even with the work on his curve he still needs more.

Hughes and Bailey have better size, but it's pretty easy to argue anything else after that IMO. I think your overrating Hughes stuff, it can be very good though. Bailey you can make a better case for as his FB and curve are maybe two of the best in the minors when on, but he still doesn't have very good control of his off speed stuff.

Billingsley had one bad start that distorted his stats by a lot. If you take that out he had a 3.25 ERA in the PCL, that's very good and if anything should of helped his stock. Rough major league debuts happen, it shouldn't be cause for guys at lower levels to pass though IMO.

I just think your overrating a few guys cause of some AA stats, in some cases that are very small ... and underrating cause of a bad MLB debut. I'm not saying it couldn't finish the way you have them ranked ... all 4 are very good and could turn out the best. I just don't agree with ranking them ahead at this point in time.
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Postby rmande09 » Tue Jul 04, 2006 11:50 pm

I actually felt this way before Bailey's promotion. For one, Pelfrey has three plus pitches - his fastball, which could be a plus-plus because of it's great late life, his change, and he doesn't throw a curve - he has a mid-80s slider that breaks on two planes, is sharp, tight, and bites. Everything I've heard (and seen) about his slider is that it is a plus-pitch. He has location troubles with it, but the pitch itself is very good. A true "out" pitch.

Again, Hughes has excellent stuff. His change is a work in progress, but features a lively fastball and a very good slider. Again, he needs to work on the consistency of the pitch, but overall, it is very good.

As you said, Bailey has the best stuff of the group, featuring two plus-plus offerings and has a halfway decent change. It's nothing more than average, but that's all he really needs - if he can develop that more, there is no question he'll be the most successful of the four.

Billingsley repeated a whole year at AA after being promoted to AA in his first full season. That is where the similarities will stop, as I'm sure Pelfrey will not be at AA to start next season. That is not a knock on Billingsley in any way, as that's the path 99% of high schoolers follow, but Pelfrey is at AA right now because that's where most learning is done by pitchers. Pelfrey, since he had those three years to develop, is ahead of the curve, as he should be, and will not need as long at AA. I'd expect Pelfrey and Billingsley to be anchors in MLB rotations around the same time.

To me, there's no question Bailey and Hughes are considered better prospects at this point in time. It is my personal preference choosing Pelfrey over Billingsley - there's really not a right or wrong answer. I know bad debuts happen, but it's never benefitted a guy to have a bad debut, has it? It won't hurt him much, as everyone and their mother know he was not ready, but it's not something you use as a cornerstone in a debate defending the guy. He does have excellent background (though I feel he took a step back in 2005 at AA, though his 2004 AA experience is a small sample size) and has pitched well for AAA, but I feel as though he has sort of "leveled" off rather than continued to improve. Then again, I've only seen two of his starts this year, so I may not have much of an idea, but in comparing Pelfrey to Billingsley and what I've actually seen, I like Pelfrey more.
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Postby hybrid » Wed Jul 05, 2006 12:14 am

rmande09 wrote:I actually felt this way before Bailey's promotion. For one, Pelfrey has three plus pitches - his fastball, which could be a plus-plus because of it's great late life, his change, and he doesn't throw a curve - he has a mid-80s slider that breaks on two planes, is sharp, tight, and bites. Everything I've heard (and seen) about his slider is that it is a plus-pitch. He has location troubles with it, but the pitch itself is very good. A true "out" pitch.

Can you list anywhere that has said Pelfrey throws a slider? Because I have only heard of him using one breifly in college. If he does indeed have one, it's a pitch he just started throwing more this year, so I doubt it's something that doesn't need more work. Anyways his curve was never a plus pitch, just above avg. as he was trying to get more spin to have better break.

Edit: Did a bit more search into Pelfrey and what he was throwing this year. Found some info and heard a few times people say he throws a curve and slider. Though none of the people that have seen either say it's plus. Just thought I would add that, as I haven't seen it yet.


Again, Hughes has excellent stuff. His change is a work in progress, but features a lively fastball and a very good slider. Again, he needs to work on the consistency of the pitch, but overall, it is very good.

He doesn't throw a slider, the Yanks like the M's w/ Felix have made him throw a curve instead.

As you said, Bailey has the best stuff of the group, featuring two plus-plus offerings and has a halfway decent change. It's nothing more than average, but that's all he really needs - if he can develop that more, there is no question he'll be the most successful of the four.

Billingsley repeated a whole year at AA after being promoted to AA in his first full season. That is where the similarities will stop, as I'm sure Pelfrey will not be at AA to start next season. That is not a knock on Billingsley in any way, as that's the path 99% of high schoolers follow, but Pelfrey is at AA right now because that's where most learning is done by pitchers. Pelfrey, since he had those three years to develop, is ahead of the curve, as he should be, and will not need as long at AA. I'd expect Pelfrey and Billingsley to be anchors in MLB rotations around the same time.

I agree he is more polished, but other then that I don't see what makes him overall better. I think you meant to say before he was promoted to AAA. Anyways he was there to get his control down, which he did at the time. My point though with talking about his first pro year, was to say he was pushed into the same situation as Pelfrey in his first year. He didn't have 3 years to get ready for it, and performed about as well as you can except for some control issues. Lets say Billingsley had 3 years in college, I find it hard to imagine Billingsley not performing better considering that we already know he handled A/AA/AAA at a younger age.

To me, there's no question Bailey and Hughes are considered better prospects at this point in time. It is my personal preference choosing Pelfrey over Billingsley - there's really not a right or wrong answer. I know bad debuts happen, but it's never benefitted a guy to have a bad debut, has it? It won't hurt him much, as everyone and their mother know he was not ready, but it's not something you use as a cornerstone in a debate defending the guy. He does have excellent background (though I feel he took a step back in 2005 at AA, though his 2004 AA experience is a small sample size) and has pitched well for AAA, but I feel as though he has sort of "leveled" off rather than continued to improve. Then again, I've only seen two of his starts this year, so I may not have much of an idea, but in comparing Pelfrey to Billingsley and what I've actually seen, I like Pelfrey more.

Like I have said before I just don't agree at this point and time with you opinion. How can you say a bad debut has never helped a player? That's like saying a prospect doesn't ever learn from failure, which the good ones do learn from. You probably didn't mean that, but you can't say a bad debut was good or bad for a certain prospects future till later on. Whose to say any of the three you listed won't had bad debuts as well? There really is no telling what will happen down the road, so I find it hard to go about saying Billingsley has performed well in AAA... yet a disappointing debut has hurt his value that much. He still has 3 plus pitches and has performed well at a young age for every level.


Anyways I respect your opinion on the matter as you seem pretty knowledgable. We just have a small disagreement on a few issues. I have one or a few them is quite a few leagues, so it doesn't matter to much which ones turns out the best. I will say though that I think Bailey has the highest ceiling, I just wouldn't rank him that high yet.
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