Incredible analysis and discussion on this thread - I am more than convinced after reading this thread that he is someone special and I am looking forward to when I can catch one of his games on TV. I was tempted to trade him after his 2-0 return, but no way do I want that regret hanging over me for the rest of the season.
Looking at stat anaylsis of Jered and Jeff --- it looks like the former has been the beneficiary of great luck and and the latter of a bout of bad luck.
Jered has pitched extraordinarily well. No desire to diminish that. But he has been helped a lot by an unsustainably low hit and strand rates. Luck, skill and the fact that most of the hitters he has faced haven't seen him much certainly plays into that data. I think Baseball HQ has his expected ERA at about 3.30.
d18Mike wrote:Looking at stat anaylsis of Jered and Jeff --- it looks like the former has been the beneficiary of great luck and and the latter of a bout of bad luck.
Jered has pitched extraordinarily well. No desire to diminish that. But he has been helped a lot by an unsustainably low hit and strand rates. Luck, skill and the fact that most of the hitters he has faced haven't seen him much certainly plays into that data. I think Baseball HQ has his expected ERA at about 3.30.
Still pretty darn good.
Wasn't it Napoleon who said "I don't care how skilled he is, is he lucky?" - If this kid has that intangible going for him, more power to him
d18Mike wrote:Looking at stat anaylsis of Jered and Jeff --- it looks like the former has been the beneficiary of great luck and and the latter of a bout of bad luck.
Jered has pitched extraordinarily well. No desire to diminish that. But he has been helped a lot by an unsustainably low hit and strand rates. Luck, skill and the fact that most of the hitters he has faced haven't seen him much certainly plays into that data. I think Baseball HQ has his expected ERA at about 3.30.
Still pretty darn good.
Unless you're a closer, you need luck to post such a Low ERA and WHIP
He's getting better too... The last 3 games, 21 innings, he's given up 1 run. And yeah, if the game is close and a hot power hitter is up (Thomas had a walk off homer the night before), he'll walk him, but those are the only guys he walks. His K rate isn't impressive as it could be, because if you're a weaker hitter and nobody is on base, which is almost always the case when he pitches, he's trying to get you out on contact. If he gets two strikes, he goes for the K, but he'd rather get a contact out in the first couple of pitches. That means he'll give up the occassional seeing eye single, but the odds are on his side, and if you get on, he takes it up a notch and throws much nastier stuff.
It's really hard to believe he's a rookie. rooks aren't usually that smart and are usually trying to impress with a lot of Ks (especially the weaker hitters), but Weaver is playing the odds, trying to get outs with the least amount of pitches as possible. That's a really rare approach. Most pitchers either try for cheap outs all the time or they're aggressive go for K types, Weaver is both depending on the situation.
johnsamo wrote:He's getting better too... The last 3 games, 21 innings, he's given up 1 run. And yeah, if the game is close and a hot power hitter is up (Thomas had a walk off homer the night before), he'll walk him, but those are the only guys he walks. His K rate isn't impressive as it could be, because if you're a weaker hitter and nobody is on base, which is almost always the case when he pitches, he's trying to get you out on contact. If he gets two strikes, he goes for the K, but he'd rather get a contact out in the first couple of pitches. That means he'll give up the occassional seeing eye single, but the odds are on his side, and if you get on, he takes it up a notch and throws much nastier stuff.
It's really hard to believe he's a rookie. rooks aren't usually that smart and are usually trying to impress with a lot of Ks (especially the weaker hitters), but Weaver is playing the odds, trying to get outs with the least amount of pitches as possible. That's a really rare approach. Most pitchers either try for cheap outs all the time or they're aggressive go for K types, Weaver is both depending on the situation.
It's great though that having said the above he is still averaging nearly a K per inning (as he has consistently done at all levels) and has a 5:1 K:Walk ratio. Good stuff, too bad he gets no start this week :-(
johnsamo wrote:He's getting better too... The last 3 games, 21 innings, he's given up 1 run. And yeah, if the game is close and a hot power hitter is up (Thomas had a walk off homer the night before), he'll walk him, but those are the only guys he walks. His K rate isn't impressive as it could be, because if you're a weaker hitter and nobody is on base, which is almost always the case when he pitches, he's trying to get you out on contact. If he gets two strikes, he goes for the K, but he'd rather get a contact out in the first couple of pitches. That means he'll give up the occassional seeing eye single, but the odds are on his side, and if you get on, he takes it up a notch and throws much nastier stuff.
It's really hard to believe he's a rookie. rooks aren't usually that smart and are usually trying to impress with a lot of Ks (especially the weaker hitters), but Weaver is playing the odds, trying to get outs with the least amount of pitches as possible. That's a really rare approach. Most pitchers either try for cheap outs all the time or they're aggressive go for K types, Weaver is both depending on the situation.
It's great though that having said the above he is still averaging nearly a K per inning (as he has consistently done at all levels) and has a 5:1 K:Walk ratio. Good stuff, too bad he gets no start this week :-(
From RotoWire:
Weaver's next start will come next Monday at Cleveland, as he'll be Anaheim's fourth starter after the break. He'll also pitch against Kansas City later that week.
Yeah, but it looks like he's getting 2 starts the following week
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by Starkmadfan » Mon Jul 10, 2006 12:13 am 
- I am more than convinced after reading this thread that he is someone special and I am looking forward to when I can catch one of his games on TV. I was tempted to trade him after his 2-0 return, but no way do I want that regret hanging over me for the rest of the season.
.
- If this kid has that intangible going for him, more power to him 
