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What has happened to A-Rod's keeper value?

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Postby mkultra » Thu Jun 29, 2006 5:02 pm

The best 3B according to Yahoo "Right Now", which I define as the last 7 days, is MCab. In my Sportsline points league, it's Joe Crede. Looking at anything less than a full season is kind of pointless- otherwise, you can skew the results any way you want.
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Postby Drunken Rhino » Thu Jun 29, 2006 5:06 pm

Not consistent top 10? Are you f-ing kidding me?

He's #37 halfway through the season where he lost Sheff & Matsui as protection (Not that Giambi is bad, but the additional bats do help) I'd like to know where Tiex was halfway through last season...

He was #12 in 2004 and #1 last year. (I was only able to check back to 2004 for rankings) but his stats from 98-2003 I'm sure are pretty damn near #1 rankings. The man has 162 game averages of
127 R, 43 HR, 125 RBI, 23 SB .306avg, .385obp, and a .574 slg.

He's still #2.
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Postby The_Met_Threat » Thu Jun 29, 2006 5:11 pm

A-Rod has probably been the best player in baseball over the last decade, you can't write that off, because of a 2004 where he finished #12 in yahoo, then bounced back and finished #1 in 05. Johan Santana is a damn good pitcher, but every year there are pitchers that emerge with amazing seasons, much more than hitters, that could be anything comparable to A-rod stats, thats why you can afford to wait on pitchers a little more. Santana will not go in the top 3, likely ever.
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Postby Laean » Thu Jun 29, 2006 5:30 pm

Geek wrote:
Laean wrote:
Geek wrote:1. Wright
2. A-Rod
3. McCab

Of course, if McCab goes to a better ballpark/lineup, all bets are off.

There's no way that A-Rod should be ranked higher than Johann Santana, who's been a top 10 player in each of the past three years (2004-2006), whereas A-Rod wasn't a top 10 player in 2004 and won't be in 2006.

A-Rod is probably settling into late 1st round/early second round production. 120/35/115/15 numbers. Great numbers, but not a monster like he was in Texas.


why would we look at only the past 3 years? how about looking at just june of this season then?

yeah i know the past 3 years is when he's been in NY, but he did well in 2005, so we know it's not like he's incapable of performing in NY. and he's still relatively young, so it's not like this is a decline from his prime already or anything.

i don't really know why arod is reverting to his 2004 #s so far this season, so is it possible that he will do it again next year? possible. is it also possible that he can get the 48 130 21 .320 that he got in 2005 again? yeah. and that's why you draft him #1 or 2.

it's not fair to say arod is a late 1st / early 2nd rounder already. there are so many 1st round picks who are having bad seasons, have they dropped down the list too already?

vlad is on pace for only about 32 110 10 .290. he also has .800 something ops, the lowest he's ever had in a full season.

papi is hitting like .260. that's not a top 5 pick like he was taken this year. that's like a thome or konerko.

pujols seems to be in danger of being labled a health risk with constant plantar fascilitis and a freak back injury this year.

teix, i don't need to say anything here. this guy was being drafted as high as #3.

abreu now has no power.

i mean, so many established 1st rounders are having bad years this year, i don't see why arod would drop, unless everyone is going to drop below a bunch of new crop of young studs - which i think is still too soon to do. if i have a choice between arod and wright next year, i'm still taking arod. ortiz vs. crawford? ortiz. etc.

i do agree that johan santana is underrated. he truly is something special. but i'd still rather take my chances with a pujols version 2, than a pitcher i suppose.


It's important to look at A-Rod's performance in his new home ballpark. Yankee stadium is a much less friendly park for A-Rod than Texas was. A-Rod himself has said that the move to Yankee stadium costs him about 10 HR's a year, because he could go to right center so much more often in Texas.

The last three years are significant because they reflect a sudden drop in his productivity.

1998: 42 HR and 124 RBI
1999: 42 HR and 111 RBI
2000: 41 HR and 132 RBI
2001: 52 HR and 135 RBI
2002: 57 HR and 142 RBI
2003: 47 HR and 118 RBI
2004: 36 HR and 107 RBI
2005: 48 HR and 130 RBI
2006: 35 HR and 120 RBI


Now, people could explain away his 2004 season--new team, new ballpark, new position. However, his 2006 season indicates that this decline in productivity is part of a larger trend.


one bad year, one good year, and one bad year is a trend? trend of what? that he'll have a good year next season and a bad one after that? that he alternates good and bad seasons? hell, then i better draft him in 2007, 2009, 2011, and so on for sure. he's guaranteed to give me at least 45 130 .320 in those seasons. but doesn't that just mean he is a consistent top 10 draft pick?

The fact is that he can't be relied upon to provide top-10 value--didn't do that in 2004 and he won't do it this year.


no one can be relied on to provide top 10 value 100% guaranteed. NO ONE. as impressed as i am with santana, not even him. that was my whole point in providing all those players' names. arod has more likelihood though of providing top 10 value than a teix or a crawford or a vlad, etc. it is true that santana has been really consistent, but the fact that he's still a pitcher is what makes it difficult for people to choose him over elite hitters (pitchers tend to be more inconsistent season to season).

Again, you're free to dismiss a decline in productivity in 2 out of the last three years as a mere fluke. But I won't.


you're skewing the spectrum of observation to what favors your argument. if you can accuse me of dismissing a decline 2 out of the past 3 years, i can accuse you of dismissing the fact that 2004 was a new team/park/whtaever (like you've stated as well), and that he did just fine in 2005, so it's obvious that he's not being dominated by his homepark. it might be a part of his decline in production this year, but it's not the sole reason. also, he put up just fine #s in seattle didn't he? you can't say he's going to be more affected by home parks now than before because he's older, because while it is true that he is oldER, he's not OLD. power hitters don't start losing it until they are in their late 30s to around 40.

Also note that he's 30, and players don't generally improve once they cross that threshold.


undoubtedly, he probably won't get better and have a 60 160 .350 season or anything like that. but he can repeat what he's already done, which is plenty good enough to be worth a 2nd pick. and as surely as a player generally doesn't improve once they cross 30, they don't start declining right away and are unable to repeat past seasons either.

Wright is 6 years younger and still improving, which is scary. Ditto for Carl Crawford (20/50 is a very strong possibility this year).


i'll give you that right is still improving, but we don't know yet what he's going to ultimately improve to. 35 120 15 .300? 40 125 20 .310? 45+ 130+ 20+ .320+? we know arod is capable of 45+ 130+ 20+ .320+. and it's not an unlikely event either. he's over 30, not 40. it's more likely than not that he'll have a couple of more of those good years. carl crawford i like less than wright, but it's possible he'll be 20 50 .300+. it's also possible in the next couple of years he'll have a few 15-20 40-50 .290 seasons. until arod gets older so that it's more likely that crawford will have a good season than arod will, i'll go with arod.

Beltran was much better in 2004, and is much better this year.


so you'd take beltran over arod? i didn't mention beltran, so you bringing him up implies that you're saying he's one of the possible "new young studs" that i was mentioning that people might think are safer 1st round picks than arod and the other established vets. so let me get this straight. with arod, we're going to start counting his stats only in the past 3 years because that's when he went to a new ballpark/team. why are we looking at beltran's 2004 season then? we should start from only 2005 when he went to the mets. he absolutely sucked in 2005, worse than arod did in his 2004 year. he's good this year so far, so what? oh wait, but with you a change of one season to another is a trend right.
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Postby Ender » Thu Jun 29, 2006 5:38 pm

So because ARod had an off year in 2004 and is only on pace for 36 HR's in under half a season this year he's suddenly not a good pick?

You guys are crazy, the year is still early. Lots of players have huge differences in their splits pre and post all star break, ARod could still hit 50 HR's this year and it wouldn't surprise me. HR's come in streaks and he's one little streak away from his normal numbers.
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Postby Laean » Thu Jun 29, 2006 5:42 pm

Ender wrote:So because ARod had an off year in 2004 and is only on pace for 36 HR's in under half a season this year he's suddenly not a good pick?

You guys are crazy, the year is still early. Lots of players have huge differences in their splits pre and post all star break, ARod could still hit 50 HR's this year and it wouldn't surprise me. HR's come in streaks and he's one little streak away from his normal numbers.


i think it's only one guy, though he did refer to himself as "us." unless he meant the original poster, who has stopped posting.
Last edited by Laean on Thu Jun 29, 2006 5:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Laean » Thu Jun 29, 2006 5:47 pm

The Loveable Losers wrote:
Laean wrote:pujols seems to be in danger of being labled a health risk with constant plantar fascilitis and a freak back injury this year.


That's a bit of a stretch don't you think...the guy's been on the DL a total of 3 weeks in his career and misses the occassional game with sore feet and he's now a health risk? In his first 5 years he played 161, 157, 157, 154 and 161 games. Health risk? More like an iron man. The guy came back from an oblique injury in 3 weeks and hit a home run the second day back!


i'd like to point out the words

Laean wrote:in danger of being labeled.


just want to make it clear that i don't consider him a health risk at this point either.
Last edited by Laean on Thu Jun 29, 2006 5:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Strasil42 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 5:51 pm

Geek wrote:
dyuen87 wrote::-b

You guys are hilarious. Whoever thinks ARod isnt the top 3b right now is out of their minds. Why not label Howard as the best 1B right now or Soriano as the #1 pick next year?


Maybe you've heard of this guy called ALBERT PUJOLS. That's why Howard isn't the #1 1b or Soriano isn't considered the #1 overall, for starters.

Also note that A-Rod doesn't provide consistent top-10 value.

Not top 10 in 2004. Not top 10 in 2006.


I didn't realize the 2006 season was over yet...
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Thu Jun 29, 2006 5:54 pm

Laean wrote:
The Loveable Losers wrote:
Laean wrote:pujols seems to be in danger of being labled a health risk with constant plantar fascilitis and a freak back injury this year.


That's a bit of a stretch don't you think...the guy's been on the DL a total of 3 weeks in his career and misses the occassional game with sore feet and he's now a health risk? In his first 5 years he played 161, 157, 157, 154 and 161 games. Health risk? More like an iron man. The guy came back from an oblique injury in 3 weeks and hit a home run the second day back!


i'd like to point out the words

Laean wrote:in danger of being labeled.


just want to make it clear that i don't consider him a health risk at this point either.


The oblique injury was just one of those freak things. The plantar fascilitis is going to get neither better or worse. It's just something Pujols has to deal with. If he hadn't put up the number of games that he has then it would be a concern. Given how many games this guy plays I'd say it's a non-issue.
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Postby Laean » Thu Jun 29, 2006 5:58 pm

The Loveable Losers wrote:
Laean wrote:
The Loveable Losers wrote:
Laean wrote:pujols seems to be in danger of being labled a health risk with constant plantar fascilitis and a freak back injury this year.


That's a bit of a stretch don't you think...the guy's been on the DL a total of 3 weeks in his career and misses the occassional game with sore feet and he's now a health risk? In his first 5 years he played 161, 157, 157, 154 and 161 games. Health risk? More like an iron man. The guy came back from an oblique injury in 3 weeks and hit a home run the second day back!


i'd like to point out the words

Laean wrote:in danger of being labeled.


just want to make it clear that i don't consider him a health risk at this point either.


The oblique injury was just one of those freak things. The plantar fascilitis is going to get neither better or worse. It's just something Pujols has to deal with. If he hadn't put up the number of games that he has then it would be a concern. Given how many games this guy plays I'd say it's a non-issue.


probably not.
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