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What has happened to A-Rod's keeper value?

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Postby Laean » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:07 pm

Geek wrote:1. Wright
2. A-Rod
3. McCab

Of course, if McCab goes to a better ballpark/lineup, all bets are off.

There's no way that A-Rod should be ranked higher than Johann Santana, who's been a top 10 player in each of the past three years (2004-2006), whereas A-Rod wasn't a top 10 player in 2004 and won't be in 2006.

A-Rod is probably settling into late 1st round/early second round production. 120/35/115/15 numbers. Great numbers, but not a monster like he was in Texas.


why would we look at only the past 3 years? how about looking at just june of this season then?

yeah i know the past 3 years is when he's been in NY, but he did well in 2005, so we know it's not like he's incapable of performing in NY. and he's still relatively young, so it's not like this is a decline from his prime already or anything.

i don't really know why arod is reverting to his 2004 #s so far this season, so is it possible that he will do it again next year? possible. is it also possible that he can get the 48 130 21 .320 that he got in 2005 again? yeah. and that's why you draft him #1 or 2.

it's not fair to say arod is a late 1st / early 2nd rounder already. there are so many 1st round picks who are having bad seasons, have they dropped down the list too already?

vlad is on pace for only about 32 110 10 .290. he also has .800 something ops, the lowest he's ever had in a full season.

papi is hitting like .260. that's not a top 5 pick like he was taken this year. that's like a thome or konerko.

pujols seems to be in danger of being labled a health risk with constant plantar fascilitis and a freak back injury this year.

teix, i don't need to say anything here. this guy was being drafted as high as #3.

abreu now has no power.

i mean, so many established 1st rounders are having bad years this year, i don't see why arod would drop, unless everyone is going to drop below a bunch of new crop of young studs - which i think is still too soon to do. if i have a choice between arod and wright next year, i'm still taking arod. ortiz vs. crawford? ortiz. etc.

i do agree that johan santana is underrated. he truly is something special. but i'd still rather take my chances with a pujols version 2, than a pitcher i suppose.
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Postby Geek » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:39 pm

Laean wrote:
Geek wrote:1. Wright
2. A-Rod
3. McCab

Of course, if McCab goes to a better ballpark/lineup, all bets are off.

There's no way that A-Rod should be ranked higher than Johann Santana, who's been a top 10 player in each of the past three years (2004-2006), whereas A-Rod wasn't a top 10 player in 2004 and won't be in 2006.

A-Rod is probably settling into late 1st round/early second round production. 120/35/115/15 numbers. Great numbers, but not a monster like he was in Texas.


why would we look at only the past 3 years? how about looking at just june of this season then?

yeah i know the past 3 years is when he's been in NY, but he did well in 2005, so we know it's not like he's incapable of performing in NY. and he's still relatively young, so it's not like this is a decline from his prime already or anything.

i don't really know why arod is reverting to his 2004 #s so far this season, so is it possible that he will do it again next year? possible. is it also possible that he can get the 48 130 21 .320 that he got in 2005 again? yeah. and that's why you draft him #1 or 2.

it's not fair to say arod is a late 1st / early 2nd rounder already. there are so many 1st round picks who are having bad seasons, have they dropped down the list too already?

vlad is on pace for only about 32 110 10 .290. he also has .800 something ops, the lowest he's ever had in a full season.

papi is hitting like .260. that's not a top 5 pick like he was taken this year. that's like a thome or konerko.

pujols seems to be in danger of being labled a health risk with constant plantar fascilitis and a freak back injury this year.

teix, i don't need to say anything here. this guy was being drafted as high as #3.

abreu now has no power.

i mean, so many established 1st rounders are having bad years this year, i don't see why arod would drop, unless everyone is going to drop below a bunch of new crop of young studs - which i think is still too soon to do. if i have a choice between arod and wright next year, i'm still taking arod. ortiz vs. crawford? ortiz. etc.

i do agree that johan santana is underrated. he truly is something special. but i'd still rather take my chances with a pujols version 2, than a pitcher i suppose.


It's important to look at A-Rod's performance in his new home ballpark. Yankee stadium is a much less friendly park for A-Rod than Texas was. A-Rod himself has said that the move to Yankee stadium costs him about 10 HR's a year, because he could go to right center so much more often in Texas.

The last three years are significant because they reflect a sudden drop in his productivity.

1998: 42 HR and 124 RBI
1999: 42 HR and 111 RBI
2000: 41 HR and 132 RBI
2001: 52 HR and 135 RBI
2002: 57 HR and 142 RBI
2003: 47 HR and 118 RBI
2004: 36 HR and 107 RBI
2005: 48 HR and 130 RBI
2006: 35 HR and 120 RBI

Now, people could explain away his 2004 season--new team, new ballpark, new position. However, his 2006 season indicates that this decline in productivity is part of a larger trend.

The fact is that he can't be relied upon to provide top-10 value--didn't do that in 2004 and he won't do it this year. Again, you're free to dismiss a decline in productivity in 2 out of the last three years as a mere fluke. But I won't.

Also note that he's 30, and players don't generally improve once they cross that threshold.

Wright is 6 years younger and still improving, which is scary. Ditto for Carl Crawford (20/50 is a very strong possibility this year). Beltran was much better in 2004, and is much better this year.
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:44 pm

Laean wrote:pujols seems to be in danger of being labled a health risk with constant plantar fascilitis and a freak back injury this year.


That's a bit of a stretch don't you think...the guy's been on the DL a total of 3 weeks in his career and misses the occassional game with sore feet and he's now a health risk? In his first 5 years he played 161, 157, 157, 154 and 161 games. Health risk? More like an iron man. The guy came back from an oblique injury in 3 weeks and hit a home run the second day back!
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Postby BronXBombers51 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:44 pm

A subpar couple of months (by his standards, still very good by everyone elses) and people are ready to write him off? The guy was the AL MVP last year and was the #1 fantasy baseball player...again.

He's still a top pick and I feel that anyone who has moved him down is jumping the gun.
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Postby dyuen87 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:53 pm

:-b

You guys are hilarious. Whoever thinks ARod isnt the top 3b right now is out of their minds. Why not label Howard as the best 1B right now or Soriano as the #1 pick next year?

Because we're not stupid
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Postby The_Met_Threat » Thu Jun 29, 2006 4:51 pm

Nothing has really happened to A-Rod's keeper value. Its just that going into the season it was around 50/50 whether you take Pujols or A-rod first overall. Now its not even close, but A-rod is still pretty clear cut #2, even in keepers, hes only like 31 right?
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Postby Geek » Thu Jun 29, 2006 4:51 pm

dyuen87 wrote::-b

You guys are hilarious. Whoever thinks ARod isnt the top 3b right now is out of their minds. Why not label Howard as the best 1B right now or Soriano as the #1 pick next year?


Maybe you've heard of this guy called ALBERT PUJOLS. That's why Howard isn't the #1 1b or Soriano isn't considered the #1 overall, for starters.

Also note that A-Rod doesn't provide consistent top-10 value.

Not top 10 in 2004. Not top 10 in 2006.

Check in with us when he's ahead of David Wright in more than one category (excluding errors).
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Postby Geek » Thu Jun 29, 2006 4:53 pm

The_Met_Threat wrote:Nothing has really happened to A-Rod's keeper value. Its just that going into the season it was around 50/50 whether you take Pujols or A-rod first overall. Now its not even close, but A-rod is still pretty clear cut #2, even in keepers, hes only like 31 right?


Johann Santana has moved ahead of him. He's a guaranteed top 10 player year in and year out. A-Rod isn't anymore.
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Postby DK » Thu Jun 29, 2006 4:53 pm

I'm a Mets fan and watching David Wright gives me chills nearly every time.

A-Rod is the #1 3B.
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Postby Geek » Thu Jun 29, 2006 4:54 pm

BronXBombers51 wrote:A subpar couple of months (by his standards, still very good by everyone elses) and people are ready to write him off? The guy was the AL MVP last year and was the #1 fantasy baseball player...again.

He's still a top pick and I feel that anyone who has moved him down is jumping the gun.


Subpar 2004 and subpar 2006 (sorry, but he won't come close to last year's numbers this year).
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