At what point can I fairly veto trades? - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

At what point can I fairly veto trades?

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby bleach168 » Sat Jun 24, 2006 3:00 pm

teddy ballgame wrote:
bleach168 wrote:Quantifying the trade a bit further, according to ESPN player rater,

Wright has benifitted his team by adding 6.30 pts.
Atkins has benifitted his team by adding 1.36 pts.

Assuming these two continue at their current pace (or both could cool off at the same pace), Liriano would have to score 4.94 pts to make up the difference. However, he would need to score even higher than that to make up for the loss in roster space due to the 2 for 1 trade. There are only 2 pitchers who have scored that high, Santana (6.52) and Pedro (5.48).

So in order for this trade to be an even one, you must believe Liriano = Pedro.

Since when do the players exchanged have to perform exactly even for the deal to be even? First of all, those ESPN numbers are not for our league settings. Second, if you consider roster needs and strenghts, those number mean nothing.


So the league settings are not your standard 5x5? Would have been nice for someone to mention that before we got to our 5th page of argueing. :-?

Second, how are we to consider roster needs and strengths when it is again not provided? The only thing I saw was the Wright guy posting his pitching staff and it didn't look to me that he needed Liriano.

Third, the deal may be uneven but I wouldn't veto it. I just think it's a bad deal that I wouldn't do.
bleach168
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 5057
(Past Year: 16)
Joined: 22 Apr 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby teddy ballgame » Sat Jun 24, 2006 3:10 pm

bleach168 wrote:
teddy ballgame wrote:
bleach168 wrote:Quantifying the trade a bit further, according to ESPN player rater,

Wright has benifitted his team by adding 6.30 pts.
Atkins has benifitted his team by adding 1.36 pts.

Assuming these two continue at their current pace (or both could cool off at the same pace), Liriano would have to score 4.94 pts to make up the difference. However, he would need to score even higher than that to make up for the loss in roster space due to the 2 for 1 trade. There are only 2 pitchers who have scored that high, Santana (6.52) and Pedro (5.48).

So in order for this trade to be an even one, you must believe Liriano = Pedro.

Since when do the players exchanged have to perform exactly even for the deal to be even? First of all, those ESPN numbers are not for our league settings. Second, if you consider roster needs and strenghts, those number mean nothing.


So the league settings are not your standard 5x5? Would have been nice for someone to mention that before we got to our 5th page of argueing. :-?

Second, how are we to consider roster needs and strengths when it is again not provided? The only thing I saw was the Wright guy posting his pitching staff and it didn't look to me that he needed Liriano.

Third, the deal may be uneven but I wouldn't veto it. I just think it's a bad deal that I wouldn't do.

I agree I wouldn't do it but it shouldn't be vetoed. Maybe if people realized the person trading Wright POSTED IN THIS THREAD then these questions will be answered.

Everyone seems to have ingored this: http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... 22#1735122
Image
teddy ballgame
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterCafe RankerGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeWeb SupporterPick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 11485
Joined: 7 Feb 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Beantown

Postby great gretzky » Sat Jun 24, 2006 6:01 pm

The thing that seems to always get forgotten in these types of discussions are, yes, 5 by 5 is 5 by 5. However, each league has totally different player distributions. Maybe the person trading wright identified say 4 or 5 pitchers he felt would be both worth wright and give him the impact he needs in his opinion. Well if liriano was one of those guys, and the owners of the other 4 targeted guys either declined, or didn't think the upgrade to wright was worth losing liriano.

Seriously, wright is the second best 3b. But if the Arod guy had one of the pitchers, no dice. What if you had aramis and only two sp's of liriano's caliber? i wouldn't do it either, even though wright is better.

I mean in theory, depending how the players are all distributed, the miggy, chavez, arod, aramis, glaus, and possibly rolen owners might decline, depending on how much they would feel they are breaking their staff up.

Sometimes, you have to take less than full value to get a piece. You can't make others trade with you, you know. If I was a liriano owner, it would be awfull tough to trade him, because for many people, he was almost totally "free" relative to his performance.

Realistically, there aren't too many slam dunk pitchers in my opinion for this type of trade, pedro, johan, schmidt maybe, peavey, carpenter. After that, I think there are some judgment calls, since some other "names" aren't necessarily getting k's or are injury risks.
great gretzky
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Cafeholic
Posts: 3769
Joined: 3 Jun 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Washington, DC

Postby machine3 » Sat Jun 24, 2006 6:06 pm

Matthias wrote:
machine3 wrote:That's why we have the rule that you have to post your objections...you don't just click "veto" without a valid reason. If I get 4 legitimate veto votes, then as commissioner, I can better make a judgment.


So you decide what objections are "valid."

As I said, you always have a decision point at the end of the day.

But you think your system is perfect. Whatever. I'm happy for you. I'm not to debate you any more on whether or not any other system could have any merit as you've clearly made up your mind. Yay.

I guess I'll have to go back and check where I posted that our system was perfect. I don't remember saying anything like that. If there was a perfect system, we would all be using it. All I'm saying is that I don't think one person should make the call on whether a trade should go through. I think the 5 pages of debate on this trade backs up my argument. Trades aren't necessarily supposed to be dead even, and I don't really care is someone gets a better deal...good for him. As long as nobody is cheating, and everyone has enough baseball knowledge to manage a team in your league, it doesn't matter to me.
Apparently, I've touched a nerve. What I thought was a friendly debate/discussion has resulted in a pouting session for you. No need to take it personally when someone disagrees with you.
machine3
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1010
Joined: 2 Oct 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Lofunzo » Sat Jun 24, 2006 7:55 pm

I'm with the guy with the Pirates av. No 1 person should have complete veto authority. In his own words, he woke up to the deal and vetoed it. Why not ask them to justify it?? Let people handle their teams as they see fit (within reason). TMT clearly explained his reasoning in that thread.
Image
Lofunzo
Moderator
Moderator

User avatar
ModeratorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe RankerEagle EyeHockey ModPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 23698
(Past Year: 11)
Joined: 9 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Central Jersey

Postby noseeum » Sat Jun 24, 2006 8:58 pm

Matthias wrote:
teddy ballgame wrote:Ok, so basically what you're telling me is because Liriano isn't guaranteed to put up the insane numbers he has been, he's not worth what he's done so far?


Not exactly. What I'm telling you is that performance comes with degrees of surety. And, even if Liriano has better numbers for his number of starts than Santana, I would still take Santana in a heartbeat over Liriano. Because Santana has a stronger likelihood of maintaining his numbers. If you rate performances on a scale of 1 to 10, Liriano may be a 10 right now. But it's completely possible he ends the season as a 5. Santana, and other elite players, on the other hand, you're 80% sure they're going to be an 8 or better.

teddy ballgame wrote:Well, maybe that's one strategy, but that doesn't mean Liriano isn't worth Wright if they both keep up what they've been doing. Saying this trade is uneven because Liriano might not keep it up, for this year at least is like me thinking Wright will suffer a major injury.


No. It's completely different.

The probability of Wright suffering a major injury is probably about 3%. You can crunch the numbers on major injuries in the majors if you like, but my guess is that's pretty close.

The probability of a fireballing rookie pitcher coming in on a hot month and then significant cooling off for the rest of the season, I'm guessing, would be about 50%. Maybe greater.

So, yes. They're both probabilities. But discussing something that's a 50% probability as something that's the same as a 3% probability is either disingenuous or naive.

teddy ballgame wrote:There's no basis for that besides that it happened to someone else. Liriano isn't someone else, he's his own person, who will build his own personal history.


Sure. But Baseball Prospectus (and others) make a great deal of money comparing players to other playes and projecting year and career arcs. At the end of the day, yes, individuals are self-determinate. But they do fall into categories of probabilities which can be considered and weighed.

teddy ballgame wrote:Right now, he's been putting up numbers as good as any other pitcher in the league. To trade another young player doing pretty good, for a pitcher who has been pitching at a Cy Young level is not really uneven, especially for someone who was expected to do so, despite the risks that may be there.

Your whole stock market or whatever the hell that was basically showed me you expect Liriano to come crashing down this season.


No. What my stock market (or, actually, asset) example should have shown you is that all risks are not created equal. I don't expect Liriano to come crashing down this season. BUT, he has a greater probability of coming crashing down than David Wright does. And since at their current performance they're about equal, that makes it a bad trade.

teddy ballgame wrote:If you believe that, then this deal isn't for you. If you don't believe that, then it's not uneven. I'd still take the Wright side of this deal, but to call it uneven just because you personally don't think Liriano will keep it up is ridiculous IMO.


No. It's not uneven because personally I think Liriano won't keep it up. It's uneven because a rookie pitcher who has been starting for five weeks has a greater probability of regressing to becoming an average starting pitcher than a batter who has one and one-third full seasons of consistent play under his belt has of regressing to an average major league hitter.

If you want to make it really basic, think if I offered you the chance to win $100,000. And I gave you the option: you can either win it by flipping a coin and calling it heads/tails correctly or you can win it by rolling a die and calling the number correctly. Of course you would go for the coin. They both have the same payoff: $100,000. But the coin gives you 50% odds of winning (1 out of 2). The die only give you 16 2/3% odds of winning (1 out of 6). Given equal reward, you choose the one that is less risk.

And that's all that this is about.


Wwhile I see that looking at things this way makes sense, you have so many "probably"s and "likely"s that your numbers are meaningless. How do you know Wright's likelihood of injury is "probably 3%". Then Liriano's chance of regressing is 50%?

And since 3% is a better number than 50%, that's the right move?

Unless you can show us how these numbers are valid, they're useless. They give the illusion of weight, but there's nothing behind them.

In summary, your opinion is "Liriano is more likely to regress to average or get hurt than David Wright is." Perfectly valid opinion, but it doesn't make it fact.

Again, I agree that Liriano has higher risk than Wright at this point, but I don't think we should just create "statistics" out of thin air when we're debating.
noseeum
Major League Manager
Major League Manager


Posts: 1697
Joined: 1 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Zito is God » Sat Jun 24, 2006 9:04 pm

Sigh...oh Matthias, I wait and wait and then when I can't wait anymore I come in to tell you the obvious that some posters seem to miss.

It's very simple, throw stats out the window even: It's nice that you think Liriano will plummet and fall and never be worth anything even close to right, that doesn't make it true. Suggesting that since it could happen is all good and great, but what right do you have telling other owners whether their projections are accurate or not.

Your arguement s are getting ridiculous to the point where I think that your leagues have a draft, get a couple of trades vetoed, everyone gets scared of the vetoes, and you guys just sit there picking up FAs all year. I have seen Liriano pitch, this guy is insane, myabe I believe that he will keep it up all year, what right do you have telling me "No, sorry, although you have just made a trade to help your pitching staff for the best young pitcher in the game, I decided he can't keep it up (although hes on fire right now) so it won't go through".

Its all very simple. Chances of Wright staying hot over Liriano's better? Of course. Is there a chance Liriano will put up insane numbers all year? definetly. Odds that you have the right to tell other owners that their projections are crap and since you believe he won't keep it up and his chances are lower then Wrights they can basically forget about trading unless you approve? )%...in nomal leagues anyways.

We've had this arguement before, and I still do not ubnderstand your justification to the simple question I asked before. I don't care abotu your stock market (well, literally I do, because my family has heavy investments), and I don't care about your projections, I care about the fact that you are trying to justify telling owners what to think. Out of curiosity, if you play yahoo could I get a link to your league just to see what type of trasactions actually occur?

I got a deal of giving away Swisher (when he was very hot) and Atkins for Rolen and Bonderman in my cafe dynasty (he proposed to me), and I was loving the deal and jumped on it. If you were the commish my league would have your head for a veto on that, and I doubt any serious owner would last longer then a season with your dicatator-esq feelings that your projections are the only ones that matter since you definetly have all the answers and baseball knowledge and everyone else, if they don't agree with you, just aren't that grwat at FBB.

I like you Matthias, I've pointed that out before, I respect you as a memmber, but when this topic hits you are swimming without a paddle on the airplane that is taking the US team to try to win the world cup: It's doomed from the start.
Image

Sean Tracey has my apologies, we all know Ozzie Guillen is an idiot. I'm rooting for you!
Zito is God
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Cafe WriterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 4169
Joined: 11 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Secretly advising Cashman.

Postby Apollo » Sat Jun 24, 2006 11:17 pm

Matthias: I agree with you that the Wright side is more likely to pan out. I think most people would agree with you on that point. You don't need to keep pointing out the probabilities of Liriano regressing and whatnot, because everybody knows them already.

Here's the thing, though. People need to be allowed to make their own decisions. I just moved to Minnesota, and even though I'm no fan of the Twins, I have caught most of Liriano's starts on TV, and I am a believer. Good golly that kid is amazing. I have very little doubt that he's going to keep up his success (though I hope he doesn't, because I am an Indians fan).

What's the point of that? Well, maybe the person in this trade feels the same way. Everyone makes their own value judgement; logic may say that 75 percent of the time a rookie pitcher will cool off, but it's hard not to watch Liriano and say he'll be different. The whole point of fantasy baseball is that everyone has their own predictions on how players will do, and they act on them. You can't deny them the chance to take those risks. If you do, you are no longer playing the game.

If Liriano holds up the entire season, the Wright owner looks smart. And I know he probably won't. But this owner thinks he will, and that's what fantasy baseball is all about: finding out whose predictions were right.

Oh, and as an aside: the Prior/Wright comparison is actually very reasonable. Both were incredibly hyped. Both entered the league and had an equally long period of amazing success (roughly a year and a half). Prior then proceeded to get injured and hasn't yet lived up to the rest of his amazing potential, and (while unlikely) the same could happen to Wright.

I bring this up only because you compared Prior to Liriano, when actually the Prior to Wright comparison is more apt. All three were greatly hyped (though I think Prior and Wright had more than Liriano). All three had immediate success upon entering the league. But Prior and Wright both continued to perform well for over a year, attaining lots of fame and publicity, while Liriano has yet to start for more than three weeks. In terms of career arcs, Prior and Wright are much more similar.
Apollo
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 515
(Past Year: 1)
Joined: 14 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: IL

Postby The Jury » Sun Jun 25, 2006 12:14 am

It's not a vetoable trade in my books. With all due respect, quite bluntly, that was a poor move by you (original poster) to veto that trade :-t
[quote:4fef447375="Geek"]The odds of the AL MVP coming from the American League are looking pretty good.[/quote]
The Jury
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 3328
Joined: 17 Feb 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby stevekahuda » Sun Jun 25, 2006 9:02 am

Poor use of the veto. Also, as far as the statistics being thrown around above, these are probabilities. Many data sets in general have outliers (see Doc Gooden) - as someone pointed out above, the trade is not wise - but it is reasonable.

BTW, the coin analogy was not only poor, but irrelevent. Liriano's performance is not random chance in any sense. He makes the pitches based on scouting, etc.
stevekahuda
College Coach
College Coach


Posts: 274
Joined: 2 Apr 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: buiviopaufamp, Millhouse and 6 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Tuesday, Jul. 29
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

LA Angels at Baltimore
(7:05 pm)
Seattle at Cleveland
(7:05 pm)
Chi White Sox at Detroit
(7:08 pm)
Milwaukee at Tampa Bay
(7:10 pm)
indoors
Philadelphia at NY Mets
(7:10 pm)
Washington at Miami
(7:10 pm)
indoors
Arizona at Cincinnati
(7:10 pm)
Toronto at Boston
(7:10 pm)
Colorado at Chi Cubs
(8:05 pm)
NY Yankees at Texas
(8:05 pm)
Oakland at Houston
(8:10 pm)
Minnesota at Kansas City
(8:10 pm)
Atlanta at LA Dodgers
(10:10 pm)
St. Louis at San Diego
(10:10 pm)
Pittsburgh at San Francisco
(10:15 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact