Confession time - the evalutions you really screwed up

[freeling_prideful]

Did anyone predict this guy? Looking at a bunch of factors, the big bump in IP and his injury history, his overly high WHIP and walk rate, the fact that he pitched for a mediocre offense...I thought he'd be a mild bust. I was thinking 12-12, 4.50 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 150-160 K...boy has he shown me up so far.

[mak1277]

I have a few real draft regrets from my NL-only:

1) Rollins over Carlos Lee in the third round

2) Sheets in round 4 - Thought this was a major steal at the time. Webb was chosen 3 picks later

3) Kent in the 5th round (almost drafted Holliday instead) - I was completing the NL infield of dreams (Berkman, Kent, Rollins, Wright) and I thought Holliday might slip to me in the next round.

4) John Lieber in round 9 .

At the time, I don't think any of these picks were outrageously bad, but boy they don't look good right now.

[garf112]

see my sig for some of excellent evaluations.

before I go on to more from the past, I feel like everyone should know that Scott Baker, Ryan Church and Joey Gathright are still bright prospects. Gathright is the only one that will have any impact this year, but we should all have them back on our radars next year around draft time. (Oh, and Gathright could STILL go .280 with 40+ SBs, believe it or not)

I used to be REALLY BAD when it came to prospects. Not that I made wrong choices all of the time, it was just that I chose prospects over vets far too often, and didn't really understand how to properly evaluate those prospects. A couple would be Chin Hui Tsao, Matt Herges (thought he would be what Gagne turned into), Todd Ritchie, Ramiro Mendoza, Franklyn German, Luis Vizcaino, Sean Burroughs, Alex Cintron, Jeff Francis, Fernando Cabrera. That's from the past 5 years or so.

Now, Francis and Cabrera still have a chance, but the rest of these guys are pretty mediocre ballplayers at best.

I also dropped Alex Rios before the year started because I didn't think he would get enough playing time for me to warrant having him on my team.

[chadlincoln]

Teix
Vazquez to a point
A-Ram
Helton

[Rookies]

King Felix. Bought way into the hype. Expected he would be putting up Liriano like numbers and took him the pick ahead of Ryan Howard in Round 5. (This was after taking Harden right before Berkman in Round 4)

So instead of Berkman/Howard I've got Harden/Hernandez

[Starkmadfan]

Debating on whether to take Papelbon or Farnsworth (Before Papelbon was made the Boston closer) as a potential vulture pitcher, and going with Farnsworth instead.......

[giants!]

Did anyone predict this guy? Looking at a bunch of factors, the big bump in IP and his injury history, his overly high WHIP and walk rate, the fact that he pitched for a mediocre offense...I thought he'd be a mild bust. I was thinking 12-12, 4.50 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 150-160 K...boy has he shown me up so far.

Kazmir?

[johnsamo]

I wouldn't bail on King Felix in a keeper league. He's barely 20 so is 3 years younger than Liriano. He's going to be an ace very soon. He outdueled David Lowe until the 6th when he ran out of gas. Even then, no walks, 6ks, and only gave up singles. He was one pitch away from throwing 6 innings and giving up just one run, but he didn't have any gas in the tank to throw his high 90s fastball anymore.

Also keep in mind the Mariners, to prevent wear on his arm, are not letting him throw many breaking pitches. I saw his what I call Plus-slider last year, and it's vicious, but he didn't throw one yesterday. They're trying to limit him as much as possible to his fastballs and changeups.

In his approach, he reminds me of Bartolo Colon. If you're not a dangerous hitter and nobody's on base, he tries for grounder and fly outs by changing speeds (Low 80s to mid 90s) and hitting his locations. But the fastball speed varies from 90 to 95. 2 or 3 times in a game, he'll throw a plus fastball or a curve just to let the weak hitters know it's possible they'll see it.

Against dangerous hitters or when somebody is on, his fastball range jumps to as high as 98ish, and he'll throw more breaking stuff. Kent and Nomar he sent packing, it was the slap hitters that got hits, but nothing hard and no ball made it past a Mariner outfielder. In the 6th as I said, they strung some singles together and he didn't have his plus pitches anymore.

[J35J]

I still have my preseason rankings. Here are my top 10 at each position (top 20 for OF and SP).

C
Victor Martinez
Jason Varitek
Joe Mauer
Ivan Rodriguez
Jorge Posada
Javy Lopez
A.J. Pierzynski
Michael Barrett
Kenji Johima
Ramon Hernandez

1B
Albert Pujols
Mark Teixeira
David Ortiz
Derrek Lee
Travis Hafner
Todd Helton
Carlos Delgado
Lance Berkman
Paul Konerko
Adam Dunn

2B
Chase Utley
Alfonso Soriano
Chone Figgins
Jeff Kent
Marcus Giles
Tadahito Iguchi
Jorge Cantu
Brian Roberts
Rickie Weeks
Craig Biggio

3B
Alex Rodriguez
David Wright
Miguel Cabrera
Aramis Ramirez
Eric Chavez
Scott Rolen
Chipper Jones
Melvin Mora
Hank Blalock
Morgan Ensberg

SS
Miguel Tejada
Michael Young
Derek Jeter
Jose Reyes
Jimmy Rollins
Rafael Furcal
Felipe Lopez
Jhonny Peralta
Julio Lugo
Edgar Renteria

OF
Manny Ramirez
Vladimir Guerrero
Carl Crawford
Bobby Abreu
Miguel Cabrera
Gary Sheffield
Jason Bay
Lance Berkman
Hideki Matsui
Carlos Lee
Ichiro Suzuki
Carlos Beltran
Grady Sizemore
Adam Dunn
Andruw Jones
Johnny Damon
Barry Bonds
Vernon Wells
Aubrey Huff
Magglio Ordonez

SP
Johan Santana
Jake Peavy
Pedro Martinez
Roy Halladay
Chris Carpenter
Rich Harden
Roy Oswalt
Ben Sheets
Randy Johnson
Carlos Zambrano
Jason Schmidt
Felix Hernandez
Mark Prior
Dontrelle Willis
Tim Hudson
Brandon Webb
John Smoltz
Andy Pettitte
John Patterson
A.J. Burnett

RP
Billy Wagner
Francisco Rodriguez
Mariano Rivera
Brad Lidge
Joe Nathan
Chad Cordero
Eric Gagne
Huston Street
B.J. Ryan
Jason Isringhausen

[pokerplaya]

Keeping Marcus Giles over Jim Thome in my keeper league...