Did anyone predict this guy? Looking at a bunch of factors, the big bump in IP and his injury history, his overly high WHIP and walk rate, the fact that he pitched for a mediocre offense...I thought he'd be a mild bust. I was thinking 12-12, 4.50 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 150-160 K...boy has he shown me up so far.
before I go on to more from the past, I feel like everyone should know that Scott Baker, Ryan Church and Joey Gathright are still bright prospects. Gathright is the only one that will have any impact this year, but we should all have them back on our radars next year around draft time. (Oh, and Gathright could STILL go .280 with 40+ SBs, believe it or not)
I used to be REALLY BAD when it came to prospects. Not that I made wrong choices all of the time, it was just that I chose prospects over vets far too often, and didn't really understand how to properly evaluate those prospects. A couple would be Chin Hui Tsao, Matt Herges (thought he would be what Gagne turned into), Todd Ritchie, Ramiro Mendoza, Franklyn German, Luis Vizcaino, Sean Burroughs, Alex Cintron, Jeff Francis, Fernando Cabrera. That's from the past 5 years or so.
Now, Francis and Cabrera still have a chance, but the rest of these guys are pretty mediocre ballplayers at best.
I also dropped Alex Rios before the year started because I didn't think he would get enough playing time for me to warrant having him on my team.
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King Felix. Bought way into the hype. Expected he would be putting up Liriano like numbers and took him the pick ahead of Ryan Howard in Round 5. (This was after taking Harden right before Berkman in Round 4)
So instead of Berkman/Howard I've got Harden/Hernandez
Don't try to strike everyone out. Strikeouts are boring besides that they're fascist. Throw some ground balls it's more democratic. - Crash Davis
freeling_prideful wrote:Did anyone predict this guy? Looking at a bunch of factors, the big bump in IP and his injury history, his overly high WHIP and walk rate, the fact that he pitched for a mediocre offense...I thought he'd be a mild bust. I was thinking 12-12, 4.50 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 150-160 K...boy has he shown me up so far.
I wouldn't bail on King Felix in a keeper league. He's barely 20 so is 3 years younger than Liriano. He's going to be an ace very soon. He outdueled David Lowe until the 6th when he ran out of gas. Even then, no walks, 6ks, and only gave up singles. He was one pitch away from throwing 6 innings and giving up just one run, but he didn't have any gas in the tank to throw his high 90s fastball anymore.
Also keep in mind the Mariners, to prevent wear on his arm, are not letting him throw many breaking pitches. I saw his what I call Plus-slider last year, and it's vicious, but he didn't throw one yesterday. They're trying to limit him as much as possible to his fastballs and changeups.
In his approach, he reminds me of Bartolo Colon. If you're not a dangerous hitter and nobody's on base, he tries for grounder and fly outs by changing speeds (Low 80s to mid 90s) and hitting his locations. But the fastball speed varies from 90 to 95. 2 or 3 times in a game, he'll throw a plus fastball or a curve just to let the weak hitters know it's possible they'll see it.
Against dangerous hitters or when somebody is on, his fastball range jumps to as high as 98ish, and he'll throw more breaking stuff. Kent and Nomar he sent packing, it was the slap hitters that got hits, but nothing hard and no ball made it past a Mariner outfielder. In the 6th as I said, they strung some singles together and he didn't have his plus pitches anymore.
I still have my preseason rankings. Here are my top 10 at each position (top 20 for OF and SP).