Has Chris Capuano finally proved the doubters wrong? - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Has Chris Capuano finally proved the doubters wrong?

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby garf112 » Thu Jun 22, 2006 4:41 pm

The Loveable Losers wrote:
Yeah but going down to 1.27 hr/9 and getting up close to 2 k/bb shouldn't have had any of us overly excited in the prospects for 2006. He just took a MAJOR step forward where I would have expected a minor one. He's gone from close to a 2 k/bb to close to a 5 k/bb ratio and dropped more than a quarter of a home run per 9 from his stats. That's not a progression - that's an epiphany. But this does happen with pitchers...guys like Carpenter (after getting traded to the Cardinals), Putz (after perfecting a splitter)...like you said, pitchers are hard to predict.

I thought Capuano would be pretty solid this year and actually tried to keep him (by trading Rolen in the pre-season) but I figured on something like 7.5 k/9, 3.5 bb/9 and 1.1 hr/9 which would give him an era around 4.08 and a whip around 1.378. I didn't expect numbers like this from him ever and figured he'd top out in a year or two around 8 k/9, 2.8 bb/9 and 1 hr/9 for a 3.60 era and a 1.267 whip. He's blasting those numbers out of the water.


There are alot more cases than just Carpenter and Putz. John Patterson at 27, Randy Johnson at 29. It seems to me that for every two dominant starters that blossom at 22,23, there is at least one that blossoms later on in their careers (typically in the 26-29 age range).

You have to weigh all of the factors to find out which one COULD have that dramatic breakout and become dominant.
My list this year of possibilities was long, you just have to guess right sometimes, like I did with Kazmir and Arroyo. And minimize your casualties when you guess wrong, like I did with Claussen and Scott Baker. (although Baker will still be a good pitcher; you should run the numbers on him, LL.)
garf112
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Cafe Ranker
Posts: 2304
(Past Year: 99)
Joined: 10 May 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby The Loveable Losers » Thu Jun 22, 2006 4:56 pm

garf112 wrote:although Baker will still be a good pitcher; you should run the numbers on him, LL.


Blech...no thanks on Minn pitchers. They can have era's under 2 for half a season and have their offense be bad enough that they can't beat Bigfat Colon in the race for the Cy Young. :-P

Seriously though, Baker looks good everywhere but that fly ball percentage. The problem is that fb% is a tough number to change...you have to change what type of pitcher you are to change that. Given his 2.58-1 fly ball to ground ball ratio he's going to give up a TON of homers at the major league level. Last year in about the same number of innings he was closer to a 3-2 ratio (still high but not as bad as this year) so there's hope he can get that in check but right now he's giving up WAY too many fly balls. The 7.2 k/9 and 1.4 bb/9 looks great though and are right in line with where he seemed to be heading in the minors. If they can get him to keep the ball down he could be a steal off the FA list or late in the draft next year - he has the control and dominance to get by...he just lets guys get too much loft on the ball.

Edit:
It seems to me that for every two dominant starters that blossom at 22,23, there is at least one that blossoms later on in their careers (typically in the 26-29 age range).

Pitchers also tend to fully come into their own a bit later than hitters so a guy having a career year at 30 or after isn't out of the question.
The Loveable Losers
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterWeb Supporter
Posts: 7290
Joined: 30 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Cubs Win!!! Cubs Win!!!

Postby Red Sox Nation » Thu Jun 22, 2006 10:04 pm

Very nice starts from Capuano. He seems to be picking up the team's rotation from a DLed Ben Sheets. Nice job on drafting him. :-)
Red Sox Nation
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 387
Joined: 11 Jun 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Havok1517 » Thu Jun 22, 2006 10:06 pm

He's been very good, though I doubt he wins 18 again anytime soon. ;-D
Havok1517
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe Writer
Posts: 8474
(Past Year: 103)
Joined: 8 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Ender » Thu Jun 22, 2006 10:11 pm

My one worry with him as a Brewer fan is that he has faltered late in the year each of the past 2 seasons. Two years ago it was an injury, last year he was simply overworked because they wanted to try to get him to 20 wins. He's yet to end a season strong though so its sitting in the back of my head that he might not finish very strong.
Ender
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 7733
(Past Year: 451)
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby George_Foreman » Thu Jun 22, 2006 10:30 pm

Making me look good for keeping him last year. ;-D

Granted I didn't quite expect this, but I did anticipate a return to his 2004 numbers (which were very good). I just hope he keeps this up for another few years. :-)
"I don't buy everything I read,
I havn't even read everything I've bought"

"I find it more comforting to believe that this [life] isn't simply a test."
George_Foreman
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 4351
Joined: 16 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: at Morimoto's, eating $50 worth of sushi

Postby tomdoyle3 » Fri Jun 23, 2006 9:09 am

Ender wrote:My one worry with him as a Brewer fan is that he has faltered late in the year each of the past 2 seasons. Two years ago it was an injury, last year he was simply overworked because they wanted to try to get him to 20 wins. He's yet to end a season strong though so its sitting in the back of my head that he might not finish very strong.


In 2004, Capuano pitched 100 innings combined between AAA and the Majors. In 2005, he was overworked and pitched 219 innings! After more than doubling his 2004 total, a 2nd half decline was to be expected.

This year, I think he'll do fantastic in the 2nd half. ;-D
Image
tomdoyle3
College Coach
College Coach

User avatar

Posts: 288
Joined: 29 Jan 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Connecticut

Postby activechamp2006 » Fri Jun 23, 2006 5:20 pm

tomdoyle3 wrote:
Ender wrote:My one worry with him as a Brewer fan is that he has faltered late in the year each of the past 2 seasons. Two years ago it was an injury, last year he was simply overworked because they wanted to try to get him to 20 wins. He's yet to end a season strong though so its sitting in the back of my head that he might not finish very strong.


In 2004, Capuano pitched 100 innings combined between AAA and the Majors. In 2005, he was overworked and pitched 219 innings! After more than doubling his 2004 total, a 2nd half decline was to be expected.

This year, I think he'll do fantastic in the 2nd half. ;-D


i agree i think hes up for a great 2nd half and could end up winning near 20 games while striking out over 200 batters..
when the season started i had tons of faith in cappy, i got him in the 10th round of my 16 team keeper league.. i was excited when i got him because i knew everyone was undervaluing him.. with the new higher powered brew crew offense i expected tons of wins once again.. like someone said earlier, 26-29 is where many players hit there prime.. and i think capuano may finally be proving he can be a top 10 fantasy pitcher in this league ;-D
activechamp2006
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2388
Joined: 5 Jun 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby tomdoyle3 » Fri Jun 23, 2006 5:24 pm

activechamp2006 wrote:
tomdoyle3 wrote:
Ender wrote:My one worry with him as a Brewer fan is that he has faltered late in the year each of the past 2 seasons. Two years ago it was an injury, last year he was simply overworked because they wanted to try to get him to 20 wins. He's yet to end a season strong though so its sitting in the back of my head that he might not finish very strong.


In 2004, Capuano pitched 100 innings combined between AAA and the Majors. In 2005, he was overworked and pitched 219 innings! After more than doubling his 2004 total, a 2nd half decline was to be expected.

This year, I think he'll do fantastic in the 2nd half. ;-D


i agree i think hes up for a great 2nd half and could end up winning near 20 games while striking out over 200 batters..
when the season started i had tons of faith in cappy, i got him in the 10th round of my 16 team keeper league.. i was excited when i got him because i knew everyone was undervaluing him.. with the new higher powered brew crew offense i expected tons of wins once again.. like someone said earlier, 26-29 is where many players hit there prime.. and i think capuano may finally be proving he can be a top 10 fantasy pitcher in this league ;-D


Hitter usually hit their prime at 27-28. Pitchers hit it a little later, 28-30. Capuano is just 28, and a great guy to own in a keeper. ;-D
Image
tomdoyle3
College Coach
College Coach

User avatar

Posts: 288
Joined: 29 Jan 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Connecticut

Postby activechamp2006 » Fri Jun 23, 2006 5:32 pm

tomdoyle3 wrote:
activechamp2006 wrote:
tomdoyle3 wrote:
Ender wrote:My one worry with him as a Brewer fan is that he has faltered late in the year each of the past 2 seasons. Two years ago it was an injury, last year he was simply overworked because they wanted to try to get him to 20 wins. He's yet to end a season strong though so its sitting in the back of my head that he might not finish very strong.


In 2004, Capuano pitched 100 innings combined between AAA and the Majors. In 2005, he was overworked and pitched 219 innings! After more than doubling his 2004 total, a 2nd half decline was to be expected.

This year, I think he'll do fantastic in the 2nd half. ;-D


i agree i think hes up for a great 2nd half and could end up winning near 20 games while striking out over 200 batters..
when the season started i had tons of faith in cappy, i got him in the 10th round of my 16 team keeper league.. i was excited when i got him because i knew everyone was undervaluing him.. with the new higher powered brew crew offense i expected tons of wins once again.. like someone said earlier, 26-29 is where many players hit there prime.. and i think capuano may finally be proving he can be a top 10 fantasy pitcher in this league ;-D


Hitter usually hit their prime at 27-28. Pitchers hit it a little later, 28-30. Capuano is just 28, and a great guy to own in a keeper. ;-D


capuanos 27.. but i agree with you for the most part.. and hitters are 27-30 in my opinion.. for prime years, not talking about when a player necessarily breaks out.. ;-D
activechamp2006
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2388
Joined: 5 Jun 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: BigLebowski, Fantasy Sports Genie, Frenchiegangsta9, germani40, marisabm69, micheleay3, pinkscrewdriver, Saltydog, silverZ, slink and 11 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Sunday, Apr. 20
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Toronto at Cleveland
(1:05 pm)
LA Angels at Detroit
(1:08 pm)
Seattle at Miami
(1:10 pm)
indoors
Atlanta at NY Mets
(1:10 pm)
Milwaukee at Pittsburgh
(1:35 pm)
St. Louis at Washington
(1:35 pm)
NY Yankees at Tampa Bay
(1:40 pm)
indoors
Minnesota at Kansas City
(2:10 pm)
Cincinnati at Chi Cubs
(2:20 pm)
Chi White Sox at Texas
(3:05 pm)
Houston at Oakland
(4:05 pm)
Philadelphia at Colorado
(4:10 pm)
Arizona at LA Dodgers
(4:10 pm)
San Francisco at San Diego
(4:10 pm)
Baltimore at Boston
(7:05 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact