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Hey math guys, baseball guys

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Hey math guys, baseball guys

Postby Chrisy Moltisanti » Wed Jun 21, 2006 7:05 pm

At what point will Jonathan Papelbon's ERA not drop (by the hundredths), assuming he pitches 1 IP of zero ER ball each game until such a point?

He is on pace for the greatest ERA+ season (min 50 IP). Eck's 1990 ERA of 0.61 got him a rating of 606. Something like 0.30 from Paps could be in the thousands!

Baseball guys:

Is there any indication that hitters have simply "not seen him enough" or otherwise? Who's got bets this guy keeps up a 1 ER every 35+ IP pace?
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Re: Hey math guys, baseball guys

Postby Matthias » Wed Jun 21, 2006 7:13 pm

Chrisy Moltisanti wrote:At what point will Jonathan Papelbon's ERA not drop (by the hundredths), assuming he pitches 1 IP of zero ER ball each game until such a point?


Well, the answer is, really, once he gets down to 0.00 (effectively) which happens once he pitches 1,801 innings on the season.

At what point can he pitch a full inning and not have his ERA drop (in the hundreths)? He's already at that point: your ERA with one run surrendered doesn't change from 37 innings to 38. (0.24 ERA) Or from 39 to 40. (0.23). Or 42 to 43. (0.22). Or 44 to 46. (0.21). The further you go, the more innings you have to pitch to continue to lower it, obviously. But you'll never get to the point where it won't ever stop going down until you're below 0.005.
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Postby Tavish » Wed Jun 21, 2006 7:14 pm

Assuming Fenway stays at the park factor of 96

<pre>IP ER ERA ERA+
35.6 1 0.2528 1880
36.6 1 0.2459 1932
37.6 1 0.2394 1985
38.6 1 0.2332 2038
39.6 1 0.2273 2091
40.6 1 0.2217 2144
41.6 1 0.2163 2196
42.6 1 0.2113 2249
43.6 1 0.2064 2302
44.6 1 0.2018 2355
45.6 1 0.1974 2408
46.6 1 0.1931 2460
47.6 1 0.1891 2513
48.6 1 0.1852 2566
49.6 1 0.1815 2619
50.6 1 0.1779 2672
51.6 1 0.1744 2724
52.6 1 0.1711 2777
53.6 1 0.1679 2830
54.6 1 0.1648 2883
55.6 1 0.1619 2936
56.6 1 0.1590 2988
57.6 1 0.1563 3041
58.6 1 0.1536 3094
59.6 1 0.1510 3147
60.6 1 0.1485 3200
</pre>
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Re: Hey math guys, baseball guys

Postby Chrisy Moltisanti » Wed Jun 21, 2006 7:43 pm

Matthias wrote:At what point can he pitch a full inning and not have his ERA drop (in the hundreths)? He's already at that point: your ERA with one run surrendered doesn't change from 37 innings to 38. (0.24 ERA)


He just got to that point then...oh the timing
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Re: Hey math guys, baseball guys

Postby tomdoyle3 » Thu Jun 22, 2006 6:40 am

Matthias wrote:
Chrisy Moltisanti wrote:At what point will Jonathan Papelbon's ERA not drop (by the hundredths), assuming he pitches 1 IP of zero ER ball each game until such a point?


Well, the answer is, really, once he gets down to 0.00 (effectively) which happens once he pitches 1,801 innings on the season.


:-D
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Re: Hey math guys, baseball guys

Postby Chrisy Moltisanti » Thu Jun 22, 2006 12:25 pm

tomdoyle3 wrote:
Matthias wrote:
Chrisy Moltisanti wrote:At what point will Jonathan Papelbon's ERA not drop (by the hundredths), assuming he pitches 1 IP of zero ER ball each game until such a point?


Well, the answer is, really, once he gets down to 0.00 [effectively] which happens once he pitches 1,801 innings on the season.


:-D


Overlooking the words and meaning in parenthesis exposes you as trying a bit to hard to look smart ;-)
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Re: Hey math guys, baseball guys

Postby Matthias » Thu Jun 22, 2006 12:44 pm

Chrisy Moltisanti wrote:
tomdoyle3 wrote:
Matthias wrote:
Chrisy Moltisanti wrote:At what point will Jonathan Papelbon's ERA not drop (by the hundredths), assuming he pitches 1 IP of zero ER ball each game until such a point?


Well, the answer is, really, once he gets down to 0.00 [effectively] which happens once he pitches 1,801 innings on the season.


:-D


Overlooking the words and meaning in parenthesis exposes you as trying a bit to hard to look smart ;-)


It answered your question. At what point will his ERA no longer drop by the hundreths? When it's at 0.00. At what point will his ERA no longer drop as a result of one inning of work? That's a separate question (which I also answered). Dunno what you think you're being clever about.
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Re: Hey math guys, baseball guys

Postby garf112 » Thu Jun 22, 2006 12:50 pm

He said

At what point will Jonathan Papelbon's ERA not drop (by the hundredths), assuming he pitches 1 IP of zero ER ball each game until such a point?


The answer was given by Tavish, in his nifty chart.

The other (wrong) answer by you, Matthias, did not take into account the statements "by the hundredths" and "assuming he pitches 1 IP of zero ER ball each game until such a point."
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Re: Hey math guys, baseball guys

Postby Chrisy Moltisanti » Thu Jun 22, 2006 1:04 pm

Matthias wrote:
Chrisy Moltisanti wrote:
tomdoyle3 wrote:
Matthias wrote:
Chrisy Moltisanti wrote:At what point will Jonathan Papelbon's ERA not drop (by the hundredths), assuming he pitches 1 IP of zero ER ball each game until such a point?


Well, the answer is, really, once he gets down to 0.00 [effectively] which happens once he pitches 1,801 innings on the season.


:-D


Overlooking the words and meaning in parenthesis exposes you as trying a bit to hard to look smart ;-)


It answered your question. At what point will his ERA no longer drop by the hundreths? When it's at 0.00. At what point will his ERA no longer drop as a result of one inning of work? That's a separate question (which I also answered). Dunno what you think you're being clever about.


Sorry, the point at which his ERA would not drop by the hundredths after 1 IP of zero ER ball is a number greater than zero.
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Thu Jun 22, 2006 3:35 pm

Tavish wrote:Assuming Fenway stays at the park factor of 96

<pre>IP ER ERA ERA+
35.6 1 0.2528 1880
...
60.6 1 0.1485 3200
</pre>


ROFL...I love those ERA+ numbers. Eckersley v1990 had an ERA+ of 606 which someone mentioned earlier was the best season for a reliever that they'd ever seen. This season from Papelbon makes that look like a Tyler Walker production.
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