A changing of the guard? - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

A changing of the guard?

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby Geek » Wed Jun 21, 2006 12:09 pm

raiders_umpire wrote:
Geek wrote:Fwiw, I've owned A-Rod in a keeper league for the past 5-6 years. And I can tell you that he's no longer the kind of player that he once was in terms of being the foundation for a winning fantasy squad.


Well this is not fantasy football, so it is very rare for one player to carry your team to the fantasy championship. ;-7 :-D :-D


My point was that you should be able to count on a top 3-4 pick for some seriously monster production in 1-3 categories--HR's and RBI's for hitters and K's, ERA, and WHIP for SP's. A-Rod's no longer a sure bet for monster #'s in HR's and RBI's.
Geek
General Manager
General Manager


Posts: 2447
Joined: 20 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Fade2White12 » Wed Jun 21, 2006 12:10 pm

Geek wrote:
dyuen87 wrote: And, quite frankly, no one is in the same league as Papelbon right now.


I'd argue that B.J. Ryan is - more Ks, lower WHIP, similar ERA - only less saves since he's had less opps. I believe both have only one BS, while Pap has one more Loss than Ryan.
Image
Fade2White12
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
CafeholicCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyePick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 3852
(Past Year: 41)
Joined: 7 Mar 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Michigan

Postby Geek » Wed Jun 21, 2006 12:13 pm

Fade2White12 wrote:
Geek wrote:
dyuen87 wrote: And, quite frankly, no one is in the same league as Papelbon right now.


I'd argue that B.J. Ryan is - more Ks, lower WHIP, similar ERA - only less saves since he's had less opps. I believe both have only one BS, while Pap has one more Loss than Ryan.


Touche.
Geek
General Manager
General Manager


Posts: 2447
Joined: 20 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby SmartassBoiler » Wed Jun 21, 2006 12:16 pm

Speaking of "on the way down", I'd like to kick Teixeira in the nuts right about now. !+)
SmartassBoiler
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 455
Joined: 1 Jun 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Chicagoland

Postby Geek » Wed Jun 21, 2006 12:22 pm

SmartassBoiler wrote:Speaking of "on the way down", I'd like to kick Teixeira in the nuts right about now. !+)


You and a lot of people who had a top-five pick.
Geek
General Manager
General Manager


Posts: 2447
Joined: 20 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: A changing of the guard?

Postby PlayingWithFire » Wed Jun 21, 2006 12:31 pm

Geek wrote:
PlayingWithFire wrote:
Old overall #1: A-Rod
New overall #1: Pujols


A-Rod wasn't the consensus #1 at the beginning of the year, I took Pujols #1 overall in one of my leagues.


I was in 19 Yahoo! leagues, and A-Rod went first in every single one.

Which makes sense, because the drop-off from Pujols to Lee/Tex/Papi wasn't considered nearly as great as the drop-off from A-Rod to . . . McCab? Rolen? Glaus? Chavez? Ensberg?


Em, when you have the #1 overall pick you don't care about positions, you take the best player available and that is Pujols. Plus you are way overhyping the position scarity.

ARod

drop off
David Wright
Miguel Cabrera
that's 2 first rounder

Pujols

drop off
Ortiz
Teixeira
Lee

looks similar
Are you interested in joining a 28 teams dynasty league? If so, PM me.
PlayingWithFire
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe WriterLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 13262
Joined: 7 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Manhattan, KS

Postby rainman23 » Wed Jun 21, 2006 12:55 pm

Pujols was the consensus #1 player heading into 2005. He and Arod may continue to leapfrog for a while. Hard to believe Rodriguez's current performance means anything.

Beltran was sniffing Top Ten for a couple seasons before Ortiz had a regular job. So this is a market correction, not a trend.

Howard, Bay, Crawford, Wright -- yeah, these are guys who first rounders (or near) for the next few years.

Manny has been so consistent for so long...hard to believe he isn't due to start heading the other way. Falling off his highest ranking ever, though, doesn't mean a lot. He became a top 5 guy for the first time ever coming off a year that was not his best. I think that was more a testimony to guys like Bonds, Sosa, Johnson, and Schilling falling off the map. And people not ready to believe in guys like Bay, Wright, etc. yet. If he slides back to 10-15 next year -- again, that's his historical positioning.

In no way is it time to proclaim Wright the new 3rd base king yet. But he can play on my team.

2005 was the first time in my FBB career where Rivera was the #1 closer. He never got as many opportunities as a Gagne, or as many K's as a Gagne / Lidge / Krod type. So it's no great surprise that he may revert to form this year. Great closer, not necessarily best fantasy closer. But you're right, though -- he ain't getting any younger.

If you're talking about the dominant fantasy guys for the next decade, you might want to keep Teixiera and Cabrera on the list too.

Soriano -- not new. Steadily declined for three years, now he's rebounding a little. The "new guard" he ain't.
rainman23
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 937
Joined: 19 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: A changing of the guard?

Postby Geek » Wed Jun 21, 2006 12:56 pm

PlayingWithFire wrote:
Geek wrote:
PlayingWithFire wrote:
Old overall #1: A-Rod
New overall #1: Pujols


A-Rod wasn't the consensus #1 at the beginning of the year, I took Pujols #1 overall in one of my leagues.


I was in 19 Yahoo! leagues, and A-Rod went first in every single one.

Which makes sense, because the drop-off from Pujols to Lee/Tex/Papi wasn't considered nearly as great as the drop-off from A-Rod to . . . McCab? Rolen? Glaus? Chavez? Ensberg?


Em, when you have the #1 overall pick you don't care about positions, you take the best player available and that is Pujols. Plus you are way overhyping the position scarity.

ARod

drop off
David Wright
Miguel Cabrera
that's 2 first rounder

Pujols

drop off
Ortiz
Teixeira
Lee

looks similar


If you look at most Roto drafts, the drafting went something like this:

1. A-Rod.
2. Pujols.
3. Vlad
4. Teixeira (Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr)
5. Manny
6. Ortiz
7. Santana
8. D. Lee
9. Crawford

Those were almost always the first 9 to go.

To be more realistic, though, none of those guys was going to be around at pick # 24 or 25.

Guys who were around at that point include Thome, Konerko, Howard, Sexson (oops!), Giambi. 1b is always a very deep position.

Also, remember that A-Rod was coming off a 48 HR, 130 RBI, .321, 20+ SB season. Not a huge stretch to project him to be #1 again the next year.
Geek
General Manager
General Manager


Posts: 2447
Joined: 20 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: A changing of the guard?

Postby PlayingWithFire » Wed Jun 21, 2006 12:58 pm

Geek wrote:
PlayingWithFire wrote:
Geek wrote:
PlayingWithFire wrote:
Old overall #1: A-Rod
New overall #1: Pujols


A-Rod wasn't the consensus #1 at the beginning of the year, I took Pujols #1 overall in one of my leagues.


I was in 19 Yahoo! leagues, and A-Rod went first in every single one.

Which makes sense, because the drop-off from Pujols to Lee/Tex/Papi wasn't considered nearly as great as the drop-off from A-Rod to . . . McCab? Rolen? Glaus? Chavez? Ensberg?


Em, when you have the #1 overall pick you don't care about positions, you take the best player available and that is Pujols. Plus you are way overhyping the position scarity.

ARod

drop off
David Wright
Miguel Cabrera
that's 2 first rounder

Pujols

drop off
Ortiz
Teixeira
Lee

looks similar


If you look at most Roto drafts, the drafting went something like this:

1. A-Rod.
2. Pujols.
3. Vlad
4. Teixeira (Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr)
5. Manny
6. Ortiz
7. Santana
8. D. Lee
9. Crawford

Those were almost always the first 9 to go.

To be more realistic, though, none of those guys was going to be around at pick # 24 or 25.

Guys who were around at that point include Thome, Konerko, Howard, Sexson (oops!), Giambi. 1b is always a very deep position.


3B isn't shallow this year.

Glaus is doing really well and I got him in round 9 right after Thome

Round 9
1. _Simulacrum_ Jim Thome(CWS-1B)
2. Playingwithfire Troy Glaus(Tor-3B)
3. pokerplaya Joe Mauer(Min-C)
4. Logan Barry Zito(Oak-SP)
5. Big Pimpin Jason Varitek(Bos-C)
6. baseball6791 John Lackey(Ana-SP)
7. BronXBombers51 Jim Edmonds(Stl-OF)
8. Half Massed Javy Lopez(Bal-C)
9. kingctb27 Brett Myers(Phi-SP)
10. bronxxbomber John Patterson(Was-SP)
11. davidmarver Dan Haren(Oak-SP)
12. OhMrScottyTrav06 Brian Giles(SD-OF)
Are you interested in joining a 28 teams dynasty league? If so, PM me.
PlayingWithFire
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe WriterLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 13262
Joined: 7 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Manhattan, KS

Postby Geek » Wed Jun 21, 2006 1:07 pm

rainman23 wrote:Pujols was the consensus #1 player heading into 2005. He and Arod may continue to leapfrog for a while. Hard to believe Rodriguez's current performance means anything.


I agree that they've been leapfrogging. I disagree that A-Rod's current performance doesn't mean anything--especially since he had another down year in 2004.

Beltran was sniffing Top Ten for a couple seasons before Ortiz had a regular job. So this is a market correction, not a trend.


Good point.

Howard, Bay, Crawford, Wright -- yeah, these are guys who first rounders (or near) for the next few years.

;-D

Manny has been so consistent for so long...hard to believe he isn't due to start heading the other way. Falling off his highest ranking ever, though, doesn't mean a lot. He became a top 5 guy for the first time ever coming off a year that was not his best. I think that was more a testimony to guys like Bonds, Sosa, Johnson, and Schilling falling off the map. And people not ready to believe in guys like Bay, Wright, etc. yet. If he slides back to 10-15 next year -- again, that's his historical positioning.

Great points. The Manny of 2002-2004 would probably be the #2 or #3 overall player this year.

In no way is it time to proclaim Wright the new 3rd base king yet. But he can play on my team.


I don't know if you're in New York, but the media here have already made up their mind. Of course, it's not like the media should be relied upon . . .
This may be only temporary

2005 was the first time in my FBB career where Rivera was the #1 closer. He never got as many opportunities as a Gagne, or as many K's as a Gagne / Lidge / Krod type. So it's no great surprise that he may revert to form this year. Great closer, not necessarily best fantasy closer. But you're right, though -- he ain't getting any younger.

Rivera was always guaranteed to be one of the top 3-4 closers. That value cannot be overstated--closer situations are so volatile that very few guys even have their jobs nailed down year-to-year.

If you're talking about the dominant fantasy guys for the next decade, you might want to keep Teixiera and Cabrera on the list too.


McCab has lineup issues. Teix took a gigantic, humongous step backwards this year. He may be back up there by 2008, but I just can't list him as an elite player after this stinkbomb of 2006 so far.

Soriano -- not new. Steadily declined for three years, now he's rebounding a little. The "new guard" he ain't.


Probably a market correction like Beltran, as you noted above. But he was being underestimated--though I'm not sure how people continue to underestimate a reliable 30/30 guy.
Geek
General Manager
General Manager


Posts: 2447
Joined: 20 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 14 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Wednesday, Jul. 23
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Cleveland at Minnesota
(1:10 pm)
Kansas City at Chi White Sox
(2:10 pm)
Cincinnati at Milwaukee
(2:10 pm)
Washington at Colorado
(3:10 pm)
Detroit at Arizona
(3:40 pm)
NY Mets at Seattle
(3:40 pm)
LA Dodgers at Pittsburgh
(7:05 pm)
San Francisco at Philadelphia
(7:05 pm)
Texas at NY Yankees
(7:05 pm)
Boston at Toronto
(7:07 pm)
Miami at Atlanta
(7:10 pm)
Tampa Bay at St. Louis
(7:15 pm)
San Diego at Chi Cubs
(8:05 pm)
Baltimore at LA Angels
(10:05 pm)
Houston at Oakland
(10:05 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact