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A changing of the guard?

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A changing of the guard?

Postby Geek » Wed Jun 21, 2006 11:25 am

Are we seeing a new wave of younger players displace some veterans as the Alpha studs of FLB?

Old overall #1: A-Rod
New overall #1: Pujols

On the way up: Beltran, Ryan Howard, Jason Bay, Carl Crawford
On the way down: Papi, Vlad, Manny

Old #1 3b: Alex Rodriguez
New #1 3b: David Wright

Old #1 Closer: Mariano Rivera
New #1 Closer: Jonathan Papelbon

Top 5 hitters going into 2006: A-Rod, Pujols, Vlad, Teixeira, Manny
Top 5 hitters going into 2007: Pujols, Soriano, Beltran, Wright, Howard/Bay/Crawford (depending on whether you like 5-category studs or monster HR hitters).

About the only constant, it would seem, is that Pujols rules 1b and Johann Santana rules SP's.

I think all of the above hold especially true in keeper leagues.

NOTE WELL: I am not saying that any of the old guard or guys on the way down won't be great players for the next five years--they will be. However, they're all over 30 and are getting badly outperformed by the younger superstars.
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Postby dyuen87 » Wed Jun 21, 2006 11:34 am

First ill address your "changing of the colors" for the closers. Mo is not regarded as the best closer because of the numbers he puts up. Lidge, Gagne, and K-rod put up better K ratios. He is the best because he is the most consistent day in and day out. Until another closer can do it for a few years running, without any major struggles, Mo will still be the best.

As much as you want to put down ARod (*cough homer) he will still go as a #1 or #2 pick. The year isnt half over and you're leaving him for dead already. Once again, consistency is a major factor here. Pujols and Arod will ALWAYS put up great numbers. A lot of new players learned their lesson from Beltran last year and Tex this year. If you think Soriano will put up these numbers again, all the power to you, but id rather use my top pick on a player i KNOW will put up round 1 numbers.
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Postby raiders_umpire » Wed Jun 21, 2006 11:56 am

I love David Wright as a player, but I am not quite ready to pass the 3rd base torch from Arod to Wright or Mcab just yet. I just don't see any way you can leave Arod off your top 2(much less top 5) for 2007
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Postby Geek » Wed Jun 21, 2006 11:57 am

dyuen87 wrote:First ill address your "changing of the colors" for the closers. Mo is not regarded as the best closer because of the numbers he puts up. Lidge, Gagne, and K-rod put up better K ratios. He is the best because he is the most consistent day in and day out. Until another closer can do it for a few years running, without any major struggles, Mo will still be the best.

As much as you want to put down ARod (*cough homer) he will still go as a #1 or #2 pick. The year isnt half over and you're leaving him for dead already. Once again, consistency is a major factor here. Pujols and Arod will ALWAYS put up great numbers. A lot of new players learned their lesson from Beltran last year and Tex this year. If you think Soriano will put up these numbers again, all the power to you, but id rather use my top pick on a player i KNOW will put up round 1 numbers.


1. Regarding Mo: He was the #1 overall reliever in 2005. He's still great, but there are questions of how long he'll stay pitching. And, quite frankly, no one is in the same league as Papelbon right now. Barring a complete meltdown--I don't see that happening--Paps will finish as the #1 reliever, while Gagne is hurt, K-Rod is suddenly mortal, and Lidge is not back to 2004/2005 form.

2. Regarding A-Rod: In terms of batting he has been extremely inconsistent as a Yankee. In 2004, his batting stats were 3rd round material--36 HR's (tied for #2 among 3b's) with barely 100 RBI's (5th among 3b's) and a mediocre OPS (7th at his position). Only a sudden spike in SB's made allowed him to produce at a (borderline) 1st round level.

Of course, last year he was a beast and the #1 overall FLB player.

But, this year, his batting numbers have sunk back to 2004 level, and he's not running with any frequency this year. A-Rod throughout his career has been very consistent when comparing April-June vs. July-September, so there's really no precedent to suggest that he's going to put up significantly better numbers in the second half of the season.

So, the question is whether in 2007 we should expect what we've seen in 2004 and 2006, or what we saw in 2005.

I'm not going to sit here and tell people that they're wrong or stupid for ranking him #2 overall next year. However, from what I've seen in watching Yankees games--his complete inability to hit mid-90's fastballs, some very evident holes in his swing, the fact that opposing pitchers are unafraid to challenge him in ways they would never dream of challenging Manny or Pujols or Vlad, and the fact that his skill level has deteriorated in EVERY aspect (hitting for average, hitting for power, baserunning, and defense)--leads me to believe that he's in the very early stage of career decline.
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Postby Mugrila » Wed Jun 21, 2006 11:58 am

There is a lot here I tend to disagree with. For instance, I don't think I see Beltran as on the way up, more like going back to his pre-2005 self. There is a lot of season left to play and many of these are going off of only 1/2 a season. (ie Papelbon)
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Postby Geek » Wed Jun 21, 2006 11:59 am

raiders_umpire wrote:I love David Wright as a player, but I am not quite ready to pass the 3rd base torch from Arod to Wright or Mcab just yet. I just don't see any way you can leave Arod off your top 2(much less top 5) for 2007


I think Wright is the best 3b in New York. Others have a different opinion, of course, but we'll see soon enough.

I think it is clear that, even if one doesn't believe that the torch has been passed, that the day it does get passed isn't more than 1-2 years away.

Fwiw, I've owned A-Rod in a keeper league for the past 5-6 years. And I can tell you that he's no longer the kind of player that he once was in terms of being the foundation for a winning fantasy squad.
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Postby Geek » Wed Jun 21, 2006 12:03 pm

Mugrila wrote:There is a lot here I tend to disagree with. For instance, I don't think I see Beltran as on the way up, more like going back to his pre-2005 self. There is a lot of season left to play and many of these are going off of only 1/2 a season. (ie Papelbon)


Well, Beltran was really down last year. There are still people who don't view him as a 1st rounder. I'd love to get those people in some of my leagues next year . . .
Last edited by Geek on Wed Jun 21, 2006 12:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby raiders_umpire » Wed Jun 21, 2006 12:04 pm

Geek wrote:Fwiw, I've owned A-Rod in a keeper league for the past 5-6 years. And I can tell you that he's no longer the kind of player that he once was in terms of being the foundation for a winning fantasy squad.





Well this is not fantasy football, so it is very rare for one player to carry your team to the fantasy championship. ;-7 :-D :-D
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Re: A changing of the guard?

Postby PlayingWithFire » Wed Jun 21, 2006 12:05 pm

Old overall #1: A-Rod
New overall #1: Pujols


A-Rod wasn't the consensus #1 at the beginning of the year, I took Pujols #1 overall in one of my leagues.
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Re: A changing of the guard?

Postby Geek » Wed Jun 21, 2006 12:07 pm

PlayingWithFire wrote:
Old overall #1: A-Rod
New overall #1: Pujols


A-Rod wasn't the consensus #1 at the beginning of the year, I took Pujols #1 overall in one of my leagues.


I was in 19 Yahoo! leagues, and A-Rod went first in every single one.

Which makes sense, because the drop-off from Pujols to Lee/Tex/Papi wasn't considered nearly as great as the drop-off from A-Rod to . . . McCab? Rolen? Glaus? Chavez? Ensberg?
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