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Postby markj11 » Fri Jun 23, 2006 2:50 pm

Geek wrote:Well, A-Rod and Vlad are both over 30. Moreover, though A-Rod performed like a top 2 pick last year, he didn't in 2004 and won't this year (yes, I know it's early, but he's not going to pass the other 30 players outperforming him right now).


ARod is pretty good after the ASB. This is the last 4 years.
2002: 30HR 69RBI 59R .294
2003: 25HR 58RBI 64R .317
2004: 14HR 48RBI 51R .307
2005: 25HR 58RBI 59R .325
94HR 233RBI 233R .311

Even if he drops off of this pace, say -.10avg -5HR -10RBI -10R he'll get 18HR 48RBI 48R .301.

That'll put him around: 35HR 105RBI 105R .290 15SB which I think would be in the top 30.
I ain't askin' nobody for nothin, If I can't get it on my own. - Charlie Daniels
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Postby J35J » Fri Jun 23, 2006 3:29 pm

This thread is freakin' funny!!! Arod is on his decline? huh? His 2 and half months this year tells you that? He only went .321 48 130 21 last year....... ;-7 I'm surprised I don't see Liriano ahead of Santana on some of your lists...... bunch of bandwagon jumpers around here. 2 months from now most of your lists will look completely different......... ughh unbelievable.


Its still.....

1. Pujols
2. Arod

and Vlad is still top 5
and I can't wait until next year to grab Teix "cheap"

Jason
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Postby Geek » Fri Jun 23, 2006 3:34 pm

markj11 wrote:
Geek wrote:Well, A-Rod and Vlad are both over 30. Moreover, though A-Rod performed like a top 2 pick last year, he didn't in 2004 and won't this year (yes, I know it's early, but he's not going to pass the other 30 players outperforming him right now).


ARod is pretty good after the ASB. This is the last 4 years.
2002: 30HR 69RBI 59R .294
2003: 25HR 58RBI 64R .317
2004: 14HR 48RBI 51R .307
2005: 25HR 58RBI 59R .325
94HR 233RBI 233R .311

Even if he drops off of this pace, say -.10avg -5HR -10RBI -10R he'll get 18HR 48RBI 48R .301.

That'll put him around: 35HR 105RBI 105R .290 15SB which I think would be in the top 30.


There's no doubt that a down year from him is still a damn good year.

But, most people expect more than a top 20 player from the #2 overall pick.
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Postby Geek » Fri Jun 23, 2006 3:41 pm

J35J wrote:This thread is freakin' funny!!! Arod is on his decline? huh? His 2 and half months this year tells you that? He only went .321 48 130 21 last year....... ;-7


The problem is that he also had a down year in 2004. That's two out of the past three where he hasn't lived up to expectations. Also note that his defense has completely fallen apart this year--he's the worst-fielding everyday 3b in the American League. Something ain't right with him.

I'm surprised I don't see Liriano ahead of Santana on some of your lists...... bunch of bandwagon jumpers around here. 2 months from now most of your lists will look completely different......... ughh unbelievable.


Santana should be one of the top 5 players in any draft. I think there's a solid argument for him being #2 overall--he's more consistent than anyone besides Pujols.


Its still.....

1. Pujols
2. Arod

and Vlad is still top 5
and I can't wait until next year to grab Teix "cheap"

Jason


Good, 'cause you can have Tex next year. I ain't drafting the underachieving bum any time before the 3d round.
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Postby activechamp2006 » Fri Jun 23, 2006 5:12 pm

Simulacrum wrote:Personally today I would probably take

1 Pujols
2 Santana
3 Wright
4 A-Rod
5 Cabrera
6 Crawford
7 Ortiz
8 Soriano (if 2b)
9 Vlad
10 Manny


missing jason bay in there :-? and a pitcher at number 2? thats just a joke.. no smart manager would take a pitcher before the top 5 hitters.. the best santana should be is at 6.. and i would take bay before santana any day of the week..
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Postby Geek » Fri Jun 23, 2006 5:25 pm

activechamp2006 wrote:
Simulacrum wrote:Personally today I would probably take

1 Pujols
2 Santana
3 Wright
4 A-Rod
5 Cabrera
6 Crawford
7 Ortiz
8 Soriano (if 2b)
9 Vlad
10 Manny


missing jason bay in there :-? and a pitcher at number 2? thats just a joke.. no smart manager would take a pitcher before the top 5 hitters.. the best santana should be is at 6.. and i would take bay before santana any day of the week..


Most years, I would agree that you shouldn't take a pitcher--even Johann--in the top 5.

However, the problem is that, after Pujols, there's no hitter that's a surefire bet to provide 1st round value. Beltran has been up and down. Vlad has had injury problems. Manny is down this year. So is A-Rod. Wright and Bay are studs, to be sure, but are they guaranteed studs for next year? Mark Teixeira sure wasn't.

Besides Pujols, there isn't a single hitter that you can look at and say "He's a guarantee for .300+ Avg, 110+ Runs, 40+ HR's, and 130+ Rbi's."

Johann Santana, on the other hand, is a lock for stupendous numbers of K's and extremely low ERA and WHIP totals. Wins is also a category where he's always at least well above average.


#2 player in the draft should be a risk-free pick, barring injury.
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Postby Althalius » Fri Jun 23, 2006 8:11 pm

I don't know. You're assuming pitchers are as valuable as hitters, but I think that's false. True, there are an equal number of categories, but there are so many starting pitchers compared to the number of position players, i.e. number of 2B, number of 1B. It's also a lot easier for people to pick up saviour pitchers off the wire or even free agency than a super hitter. Johan Santana, for example, I picked up off FA when he became a SP. Liriano is this year's Santana so far. Papelbon is amazing, and closers like Danny Graves have been elite closers in the past. Patterson last year, Verlander, Loaiza, Beckett when he came back, there are just a lot of pitching diamonds in the rough. The only hitter that has made comparable FA impact that I can think of off the top of my head is Beltre, and even he I drafted, anticipating a breakout year. The fact is, I'll never take a pitcher Top 5, certainly not Top 2, and if I can avoid it, not in the first round.
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Postby Geek » Fri Jun 23, 2006 8:35 pm

Again, I agree with you as a general rule.

But, if I'm picking #2 next year and I look at the available options--none really jumps out as deserving the #2 pick.
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Postby activechamp2006 » Sat Jun 24, 2006 2:46 am

Geek wrote:Again, I agree with you as a general rule.

But, if I'm picking #2 next year and I look at the available options--none really jumps out as deserving the #2 pick.
\

it really doesnt matter if none look to you like a deserving pick.. there are 5-7 hitters better then santana.. david wright and jason bay are more valuable then johan.. its always smarter to take a guy who plays for you every day vs pitching once a week.. dont get me wrong johans the best pitcher in the league, but no way should a pitcher go 2nd overall.. unless he wins 30 games strikes out 300 and has an era of 2.50 with a whip of .90.. then i can see him going first or 2nd overall.. but until then, no way no how..
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Postby bleach168 » Sat Jun 24, 2006 7:39 am

activechamp2006 wrote:
Geek wrote:Again, I agree with you as a general rule.

But, if I'm picking #2 next year and I look at the available options--none really jumps out as deserving the #2 pick.
\

it really doesnt matter if none look to you like a deserving pick.. there are 5-7 hitters better then santana.. david wright and jason bay are more valuable then johan.. its always smarter to take a guy who plays for you every day vs pitching once a week.. dont get me wrong johans the best pitcher in the league, but no way should a pitcher go 2nd overall.. unless he wins 30 games strikes out 300 and has an era of 2.50 with a whip of .90.. then i can see him going first or 2nd overall.. but until then, no way no how..


I don't know how you are valueing the players but Santana ranks #1 overall in ESPN, #3 overall in Rototimes, #8 in Yahoo (lol). He has consistently ranked in the top 10 ever since they let him start three years ago. Add in the fact that he is the lone pitcher in the first tier of SP's and his value increases even more.
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