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Postby ThunderSnarfer » Thu Jun 22, 2006 11:05 am

If crawford is top 3 then abreu is top 5
what people are saying Crawford will eventually do (which has been said every single season) 110-20-80-50-.300 is not that much different than abreu's usual (even with the power decline) 110-25-110-30-.300

Stop loving the HR SB combination if you are just gonna write off other players in the same sort of style. Crawford is without a doubt top 15, but its gonna take a lot more HR, RBI to move him into the top 10, and if he starts to become a power hitter, (35 HR is never gonna happen in my opinion) then he will start to steal less.

Crawford is top 15.
Abreu is top 25.
Man-crushes by Crawford owners aside.
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Postby joshheines » Thu Jun 22, 2006 11:24 am

In response to the guy above who think a top position is reserved for only 4-5 category studs, simply, that's ridiculous. Let's put a hypothetical player named Ralph on the table. Now, Ralph doesn't hit for average or much power, but he can put up some gaudy SB numbers. Last year Ralph scored 130 runs, hit 10 HR, knocked in 60 RBI, stole 90 bases and hit for a .270 AVG. Ralph also plays SS. We knows that with few exceptions, SS don't hit for much power. So 10 HR and 60 RBI is only a slightly below average number. I'd say the AVG SS hits 13 HR and knocks in 70 RBI. So no big loss there. The same goes for AVG, The value of 130 runs and 90 SB simply cannot be undercut. That's probably 50 more runs than the average position achieves and a solid 60-65 more SB than the average position. With a guy like that, I don't have to worry too much about trying to get 5 tool studs like Soriano or Beltran and instead can concentrate on simple HR/RBI guys for the rest of the draft.

Also, no love for Joe Mauer? According to value of replacement value and position scarcity, the present top 10 guys in a 5x5 league with 14 bats (C, C, standards, 5 OF, CO, MI, UTIL are:

1. Joe Mauer
2. David Wright
3. Alfonso Soriano
4. Albert Pujols
5. A-Rod
6. Miguel Tejada
7. Jose Reyes
8/8/8/8. Ichiro/Beltran/Carlos Lee/V-Mart

The next set of guys would be Miguel Cabrera, Carl Crawford and Vernon Wells. It doesn't appear that value changes much even in a less deep league.

Right now, looks like league average catcher, eyeballing it has 6 HR, 34 RBI, 1 SB, 28 runs and a .280 AVG (That's only with one c per league). The AVG OF, again eyeballing, looks to have 14 HR, 45 RBI, 42 runs, 8 SB and a .290 AVG. Mauer is presently -1 HR below avg, -3 below avg in RBI, +6 above avg in SB, +8 runs and almost +.100 in AVG. Transmute those numbers to what he's be producing as an OF and you're looking at 13 HR, 42 RBI, 14 SB, 50 runs, and .390 AVG. Basically imagine Grady Sizemore's HR/SB/RBI/runs with Ichiro's average and that's ALMOST, but not quite what Joe Mauer has done this season.

I guess we're about 70 games into the season, so take Mauer's OF numbers over a season and you're looking at: 30 HR, 32 SB, 96 RBI, 114 runs scored and a .390 AVG. That's easily a first round pick even if Mauer keeps up the rest of his numbers and drops to hit around .340 as a catcher.
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Postby joshheines » Thu Jun 22, 2006 11:38 am

And one more thing, in response to Crawford v. Abreu. It's not even really that close. Abreu is moving toward the years where he will start to decline, Crawford is starting to enter his peak years. Accepting your general premise that Abreu is a 110/25/110/30/300 guy (I would dispute he's more like a 22 HR and 100 RBI guy), but I'll accept everything. Crawford is on pace, right now to hit 111 runs, 24 HR, 85 RBI, 57 SB and .317 AVG. Let's just say runs, HR and AVG equal each other out. The question is then what is more valuable 15-25 more RBI or 25 more SB? Generally a SB is about 3x as valuable an RBI in roto, so, it like asking what's better Bobby Abreu, or Bobby Abreu with 160 RBI (Taking Crawford's 25 SB, and multiplying by 3, giving him 75 total RBI and equalling the SB and adding the extra 75 RBI to Craws current pace of 85 RBI).

No diss to Abreu, he's still probably a top 30 guy, but Crawford is a first round pick, given his track record and age, without a doubt.
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Postby acsguitar » Thu Jun 22, 2006 11:42 am

My Top 10

1. Pujols
2. Arod
3. Bay
4. Wright
5. Johan
6. Soriano
7. Beltran
8. Reyes
9. Tejada
10. Howard

Something like that
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Postby Geek » Thu Jun 22, 2006 12:08 pm

joshheines wrote:In response to the guy above who think a top position is reserved for only 4-5 category studs, simply, that's ridiculous. Let's put a hypothetical player named Ralph on the table. Now, Ralph doesn't hit for average or much power, but he can put up some gaudy SB numbers. Last year Ralph scored 130 runs, hit 10 HR, knocked in 60 RBI, stole 90 bases and hit for a .270 AVG. Ralph also plays SS. We knows that with few exceptions, SS don't hit for much power. So 10 HR and 60 RBI is only a slightly below average number. I'd say the AVG SS hits 13 HR and knocks in 70 RBI. So no big loss there. The same goes for AVG, The value of 130 runs and 90 SB simply cannot be undercut. That's probably 50 more runs than the average position achieves and a solid 60-65 more SB than the average position. With a guy like that, I don't have to worry too much about trying to get 5 tool studs like Soriano or Beltran and instead can concentrate on simple HR/RBI guys for the rest of the draft.

However, we should remember that not only does Reyes not contribute much in two categories (RBI, HR), but right now he hurts your team in AVG--he's a net negative there. If people are going to hold Adam Dunn's average against him, then they should do the same for Reyes.

Don't get me wrong--I think that Reyes is definitely a second rounder. But top 15 players--which essentially means that someone is a borderline 1st round pick--need to rise above that.

Now, if Reyes shows 10+HR power or bats above .285 in the future (I think he will), then he's definitely late 1st round material.

Also, no love for Joe Mauer? According to value of replacement value and position scarcity, the present top 10 guys in a 5x5 league with 14 bats (C, C, standards, 5 OF, CO, MI, UTIL are:

1. Joe Mauer
2. David Wright
3. Alfonso Soriano
4. Albert Pujols
5. A-Rod
6. Miguel Tejada
7. Jose Reyes
8/8/8/8. Ichiro/Beltran/Carlos Lee/V-Mart

The next set of guys would be Miguel Cabrera, Carl Crawford and Vernon Wells. It doesn't appear that value changes much even in a less deep league.

Right now, looks like league average catcher, eyeballing it has 6 HR, 34 RBI, 1 SB, 28 runs and a .280 AVG (That's only with one c per league). The AVG OF, again eyeballing, looks to have 14 HR, 45 RBI, 42 runs, 8 SB and a .290 AVG. Mauer is presently -1 HR below avg, -3 below avg in RBI, +6 above avg in SB, +8 runs and almost +.100 in AVG. Transmute those numbers to what he's be producing as an OF and you're looking at 13 HR, 42 RBI, 14 SB, 50 runs, and .390 AVG. Basically imagine Grady Sizemore's HR/SB/RBI/runs with Ichiro's average and that's ALMOST, but not quite what Joe Mauer has done this season.

I guess we're about 70 games into the season, so take Mauer's OF numbers over a season and you're looking at: 30 HR, 32 SB, 96 RBI, 114 runs scored and a .390 AVG. That's easily a first round pick even if Mauer keeps up the rest of his numbers and drops to hit around .340 as a catcher.


Except that stats are measured in gross terms, not terms relative to other players at a position. A catcher who has average power and RBI's for his position will contribute far less to his team than an OF who has average OF numbers.
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Postby acsguitar » Thu Jun 22, 2006 12:56 pm

I think Reyes position allows more downside then Dunn's position
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Postby joshheines » Thu Jun 22, 2006 12:56 pm

Geek wrote:However, we should remember that not only does Reyes not contribute much in two categories (RBI, HR), but right now he hurts your team in AVG--he's a net negative there. If people are going to hold Adam Dunn's average against him, then they should do the same for Reyes.

Don't get me wrong--I think that Reyes is definitely a second rounder. But top 15 players--which essentially means that someone is a borderline 1st round pick--need to rise above that.

Now, if Reyes shows 10+HR power or bats above .285 in the future (I think he will), then he's definitely late 1st round material.


Reyes currently has 7 HR about 70 games in. I'd say that's more than 10 HR power. Also, Reyes is hitting about .285 after last nights game. He's average to above average in each of those categories relative to position, right now.

Geek wrote:Except that stats are measured in gross terms, not terms relative to other players at a position. A catcher who has average power and RBI's for his position will contribute far less to his team than an OF who has average OF numbers.


This is absolutely not true. Pose the question of who would you rather have Joe Mauer and Joe Average OF or Grady Sizemore and Joe Average C? I'm going for Mauer. The closest average OF I can find is Player X with 36 runs, 16 HR, 54 RBI, 5 SB and .295 AVG. That's only slightly above average. Player Y is the closest I can find to a league average catcher. Player Y presently has 30 runs, 7 HR, 34 RBI, 1 SB and .262 AVG. Mauer + X would give you .333 AVG, 73 runs, 21 HR, 85 RBI and 12 SB. Sizemore + Y would give you .281 AVG, 90, runs, 20 HR, 69 RBI, 12 SB. Not surprisingly, runs, HR, SB and RBI cancel each other out. Then you are left with average .333 for the Mauer side and .281 for the Sizemore side. Sizemore was ranked #22 in one guys ranking, Mauer was not considered. However, Mauer is clearly Grady Sizemore's catching counterpart with a .050 better average.

Of course, the above numbers considering "average at a position" are based on totals thus far. Player X is Vlad Guerrero and Player Y is Varitek. Both players are of course well above average, but thus far Vlad is ranked 16 out of 36 OF and Varitek is ranked 7 out of 12 catchers (based on 12 team league).


Fantasy baseball, like real baseball, is not based on gross terms. It's based on individuals terms relative to a position.
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Postby Geek » Thu Jun 22, 2006 2:30 pm

I just noticed that Reyes has raised his avg by 40 (!!!) points in the past ten days. If he keeps this up, he'll be a top 5 pick (like Ichiro with twice the SB's).

But, it's a long season.
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Postby tol1l1yboy » Thu Jun 22, 2006 2:49 pm

Cant wait for the extended slump sure to come for Reyes. He doesnt have enough plate patience to be a .300 hitter. My guess is he ends up around .270 this year.
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Postby activechamp2006 » Thu Jun 22, 2006 2:56 pm

reyes could end up being a top pick.. and whoever said he doesnt have much power is crazy.. he will probably end with 12-13 home runs this season, and hes always been known for a little spunk in his bat.. plus hes hitting 287 right now, and i think if he can keep his average around 280 he will be a legit top 10 pick next season..

by the way.. whoever compared dunn to reyes, that was just a sad comparison.. dunns hitting 224, while reyes was at his worst he was never that low.. dunns a career 246 hitter.. while reyes is a career 280 hitter.. the two shouldnt even be compared in that category.. everyone is also forgetting how hard it is to find a good shortstop, vs say an outfielder.. and i really think reyes will be the first shortstop drafted in next seasons draft ;-D
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