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Watch it: The collapse of Josh Johnson is coming.

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Postby garf112 » Tue Jun 27, 2006 2:08 pm

joeklopfenstein wrote:
Fade2White12 wrote:What is with the blatant obsession with minor league stats when it comes to outperforming players? You all act like the superstars were superstars at every level. Seems like everyone is trying to cut this kid down no matter how he performs. I can understand when a mediocre minor league player has a good start or two, but Johnson has strung together 10 quality starts in a row. At what point do you concede that he just may have some talent? After such a great start, I say you have to give him the benefit of the doubt, or atleast partial credit.


A guy wouldn't have made such a rapid rise to the majors if he didn't have talent. A lot of the guys here are just fantasy players with no insight or perspective on minor league prospects. Let them be skeptical, while guys like me who know a thing or two about the minors are able to grab players like Johnson before anyone else knows their name.

Josh's minor league stats aren't eye-catching, but he's been young for every level and has more than held his own. Career minor league ERA of 3.73, 1.37 WHIP with a reasonable 7.3 k/9. His major league stats this year? 2.20 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 7.8 k/9. Obviously his ERA is quite a bit lower, but he's also improved his WHIP and k/9, so a lower ERA is a logical product.

The reason he's able to strand so many runners is because he has a good, heavy sinker than guys just pound into the dirt. He only allowed 13 homers in 359.1 minor league innings and has only given up 3 this year. He's also aided by the fact that he plays in a pitcher's park down in Miami for half his games.

In conclusion, will he continue to maintain an ERA in the low 2.00's? Probably not. Is he going to suddenly collapse, as this thread predicts? Probably not. Will he be a good pitcher the rest of the way and worthy of owning on your fantasy team? I say yes, without a doubt. But let the doubters doubt, they're only missing out.


Congrats! You have now officially added something to the conversation. I agree with you. His ERA will go up about a run and a half, but those HR rates in minors and majors are nothing to sneeze at! Especially for a guy that pitches at Dolphins Stadium. I think in a couple of years you could see him blossoming into a Brandon Webb, when he gets the walks under control. His Strand Rate is high at 78% and his HR/f% is low at 4.7%, but even when you correct for those, you have a pretty good pitcher.
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Postby PlayingWithFire » Tue Jun 27, 2006 9:20 pm

joeklopfenstein wrote:
Fade2White12 wrote:What is with the blatant obsession with minor league stats when it comes to outperforming players? You all act like the superstars were superstars at every level. Seems like everyone is trying to cut this kid down no matter how he performs. I can understand when a mediocre minor league player has a good start or two, but Johnson has strung together 10 quality starts in a row. At what point do you concede that he just may have some talent? After such a great start, I say you have to give him the benefit of the doubt, or atleast partial credit.


A guy wouldn't have made such a rapid rise to the majors if he didn't have talent. A lot of the guys here are just fantasy players with no insight or perspective on minor league prospects. Let them be skeptical, while guys like me who know a thing or two about the minors are able to grab players like Johnson before anyone else knows their name.

Josh's minor league stats aren't eye-catching, but he's been young for every level and has more than held his own. Career minor league ERA of 3.73, 1.37 WHIP with a reasonable 7.3 k/9. His major league stats this year? 2.20 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 7.8 k/9. Obviously his ERA is quite a bit lower, but he's also improved his WHIP and k/9, so a lower ERA is a logical product.

The reason he's able to strand so many runners is because he has a good, heavy sinker than guys just pound into the dirt. He only allowed 13 homers in 359.1 minor league innings and has only given up 3 this year. He's also aided by the fact that he plays in a pitcher's park down in Miami for half his games.

In conclusion, will he continue to maintain an ERA in the low 2.00's? Probably not. Is he going to suddenly collapse, as this thread predicts? Probably not. Will he be a good pitcher the rest of the way and worthy of owning on your fantasy team? I say yes, without a doubt. But let the doubters doubt, they're only missing out.


He might be able to keep his HR/9 rate low(but not at the current level), but unless he show drastically better command some of those balls in play will drop for hits and all you got will be a pedestrian pitcher with a decent ERA and k rate but bad WHIP. I'm not saying he's going to collapse like Oliver Perez did, but I do believe that by the end of the season his ERA would be over or around 3.50 with a not so good WHIP hovering around 1.35. Is that good number? Yes. Can he be a good major league pitcher? Yes. Can he be a true ace in the future? IMO, no.


As to the people that said I was unhappy with him because either I didn't pick him up or traded him for junk. I think I'll give Cain a couple more years before consider him junk, I still like getting Cain for Josh Johnson. And I'm just about the earliest Josh Johnson owner out there. I got him in a trade last off-season and has followed him since. I even suggested somebody to write a sleeper article about him(nobody did).
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Postby joeklopfenstein » Wed Jun 28, 2006 8:39 am

garf112 wrote:
joeklopfenstein wrote:
Fade2White12 wrote:What is with the blatant obsession with minor league stats when it comes to outperforming players? You all act like the superstars were superstars at every level. Seems like everyone is trying to cut this kid down no matter how he performs. I can understand when a mediocre minor league player has a good start or two, but Johnson has strung together 10 quality starts in a row. At what point do you concede that he just may have some talent? After such a great start, I say you have to give him the benefit of the doubt, or atleast partial credit.


A guy wouldn't have made such a rapid rise to the majors if he didn't have talent. A lot of the guys here are just fantasy players with no insight or perspective on minor league prospects. Let them be skeptical, while guys like me who know a thing or two about the minors are able to grab players like Johnson before anyone else knows their name.

Josh's minor league stats aren't eye-catching, but he's been young for every level and has more than held his own. Career minor league ERA of 3.73, 1.37 WHIP with a reasonable 7.3 k/9. His major league stats this year? 2.20 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 7.8 k/9. Obviously his ERA is quite a bit lower, but he's also improved his WHIP and k/9, so a lower ERA is a logical product.

The reason he's able to strand so many runners is because he has a good, heavy sinker than guys just pound into the dirt. He only allowed 13 homers in 359.1 minor league innings and has only given up 3 this year. He's also aided by the fact that he plays in a pitcher's park down in Miami for half his games.

In conclusion, will he continue to maintain an ERA in the low 2.00's? Probably not. Is he going to suddenly collapse, as this thread predicts? Probably not. Will he be a good pitcher the rest of the way and worthy of owning on your fantasy team? I say yes, without a doubt. But let the doubters doubt, they're only missing out.


Congrats! You have now officially added something to the conversation. I agree with you. His ERA will go up about a run and a half, but those HR rates in minors and majors are nothing to sneeze at! Especially for a guy that pitches at Dolphins Stadium. I think in a couple of years you could see him blossoming into a Brandon Webb, when he gets the walks under control. His Strand Rate is high at 78% and his HR/f% is low at 4.7%, but even when you correct for those, you have a pretty good pitcher.


He does profile similarly to Webb with the hard sinker. That's a good comparison.
Daniel Cabrera will win 20 games with a 3.00 ERA and 1.25 WHIP!
Oliver Perez will win 15 games with a 2.75 ERA and 1.15 WHIP!
Ron Villone will take over as Yankees closer and save 55 games!
Sleeper of the month: Brandon Duckworth!
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Postby joeklopfenstein » Wed Jun 28, 2006 8:40 am

PlayingWithFire wrote:
joeklopfenstein wrote:
Fade2White12 wrote:What is with the blatant obsession with minor league stats when it comes to outperforming players? You all act like the superstars were superstars at every level. Seems like everyone is trying to cut this kid down no matter how he performs. I can understand when a mediocre minor league player has a good start or two, but Johnson has strung together 10 quality starts in a row. At what point do you concede that he just may have some talent? After such a great start, I say you have to give him the benefit of the doubt, or atleast partial credit.


A guy wouldn't have made such a rapid rise to the majors if he didn't have talent. A lot of the guys here are just fantasy players with no insight or perspective on minor league prospects. Let them be skeptical, while guys like me who know a thing or two about the minors are able to grab players like Johnson before anyone else knows their name.

Josh's minor league stats aren't eye-catching, but he's been young for every level and has more than held his own. Career minor league ERA of 3.73, 1.37 WHIP with a reasonable 7.3 k/9. His major league stats this year? 2.20 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 7.8 k/9. Obviously his ERA is quite a bit lower, but he's also improved his WHIP and k/9, so a lower ERA is a logical product.

The reason he's able to strand so many runners is because he has a good, heavy sinker than guys just pound into the dirt. He only allowed 13 homers in 359.1 minor league innings and has only given up 3 this year. He's also aided by the fact that he plays in a pitcher's park down in Miami for half his games.

In conclusion, will he continue to maintain an ERA in the low 2.00's? Probably not. Is he going to suddenly collapse, as this thread predicts? Probably not. Will he be a good pitcher the rest of the way and worthy of owning on your fantasy team? I say yes, without a doubt. But let the doubters doubt, they're only missing out.


He might be able to keep his HR/9 rate low(but not at the current level), but unless he show drastically better command some of those balls in play will drop for hits and all you got will be a pedestrian pitcher with a decent ERA and k rate but bad WHIP. I'm not saying he's going to collapse like Oliver Perez did, but I do believe that by the end of the season his ERA would be over or around 3.50 with a not so good WHIP hovering around 1.35. Is that good number? Yes. Can he be a good major league pitcher? Yes. Can he be a true ace in the future? IMO, no.


As to the people that said I was unhappy with him because either I didn't pick him up or traded him for junk. I think I'll give Cain a couple more years before consider him junk, I still like getting Cain for Josh Johnson. And I'm just about the earliest Josh Johnson owner out there. I got him in a trade last off-season and has followed him since. I even suggested somebody to write a sleeper article about him(nobody did).


I'm not saying that I expect him to be an ace. I'm just saying that his production is legitimate. Hell, if somebody has Josh Johnson as their fantasy ace, I think they need to re-evaluate their team.
Daniel Cabrera will win 20 games with a 3.00 ERA and 1.25 WHIP!
Oliver Perez will win 15 games with a 2.75 ERA and 1.15 WHIP!
Ron Villone will take over as Yankees closer and save 55 games!
Sleeper of the month: Brandon Duckworth!
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