Jake Peavy's Health and Value - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Injuries & Player Updates

Jake Peavy's Health and Value

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby jdsun1 » Sat Jun 17, 2006 8:56 pm

BillyHallDisciple wrote:also, have you seen Liriano pitch? The guy is dominant.


Liriano is a beast. Why would you want a bust like aram or peavy for him?
jdsun1
Major League Manager
Major League Manager


Posts: 1075
Joined: 5 May 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Red Sox Nation » Sat Jun 17, 2006 9:59 pm

jdsun1 wrote:
BillyHallDisciple wrote:also, have you seen Liriano pitch? The guy is dominant.


Liriano is a beast. Why would you want a bust like aram or peavy for him?


1. He's a rookie.
2. He can only go down. He's bound to hit a slump like Kazmir, except not as bad. He'll probably slump similar to Johan.

Liriano is a beast but Peavy is a proven stud. The problem with Peavy is that even if he pitches an outstanding game or even a good game (say 3 ER in 7.0 innings) he'll still lose. His record after today's game is only 4-8.

As for A-Ram. It could be the "curse" of the Cubs or it could be the fact that D. Lee is on the DL.
Red Sox Nation
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 387
Joined: 11 Jun 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby mrider » Tue Jun 20, 2006 12:36 am

Peavy will be awesome from here on out. Like every start is getting better and its only a short matter of time before he pitches a gem like his 16 k game earlier this year.
Image
mrider
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2562
Joined: 1 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Rogers Centre

Postby Jabs » Tue Jun 20, 2006 6:13 am

As reported on TGBaseball:

Jake Peavy said he will have an MRI on his right shoulder before his next start. Peavy called the meeting with Dr. Yocum Friday in San Diego a Precautionary. Said Peavy " We've got awesome doctors in San Diego, but when you have a chance to see one of the best, why not? "

Now maybe it's just me being a pessimist, but people just don't go see a doctor for no reason. I have never been sitting at home and all of a sudden thought to myself, "Hey, there is a great doctor in town so I'm going to stop by to have an MRI for no reason." Peavy cleary hasn't been himself this season, minus a game here or there. I'm almost starting to think there is something else going on here. We can all keep telling ourselves there is nothing wrong with Peavy and he'll snap out of this soon until we are blue in the face, but when do we face reality? Peavy has been an absolute stud since he came into the league, but 4-8 with a 4.81 ERA this year is not Jake Peavy.

Go ahead, blast me for overreacting...I probably deserve it, but as a Peavy owner, I'm a bit disappointed/frustrated/PO'ed/worried about the season he is having. I just hope I am overreacting and he will be fine, but I'm also starting to accept the fact the Peavy might not be his normal self the rest of this season if he is injured.
Jabs
Softball Supervisor
Softball Supervisor


Posts: 89
Joined: 2 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby CadensDad » Tue Jun 20, 2006 6:43 am

BillyHallDisciple wrote:also, have you seen Liriano pitch? The guy is dominant.


As good as he may be he's not a 1st round player, or 2nd, 3rd, or 10th. Peavy is a 1-3 round player and a pure STUD.
Image

“Never argue with a idiot, because first they will bring you down to their level. Then beat you with experience.”
CadensDad
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe RankerMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 5977
(Past Year: 27)
Joined: 25 Feb 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby mrider » Tue Jun 20, 2006 8:38 am

Jabs wrote:As reported on TGBaseball:

Jake Peavy said he will have an MRI on his right shoulder before his next start. Peavy called the meeting with Dr. Yocum Friday in San Diego a Precautionary. Said Peavy " We've got awesome doctors in San Diego, but when you have a chance to see one of the best, why not? "

Now maybe it's just me being a pessimist, but people just don't go see a doctor for no reason. I have never been sitting at home and all of a sudden thought to myself, "Hey, there is a great doctor in town so I'm going to stop by to have an MRI for no reason." Peavy cleary hasn't been himself this season, minus a game here or there. I'm almost starting to think there is something else going on here. We can all keep telling ourselves there is nothing wrong with Peavy and he'll snap out of this soon until we are blue in the face, but when do we face reality? Peavy has been an absolute stud since he came into the league, but 4-8 with a 4.81 ERA this year is not Jake Peavy.

Go ahead, blast me for overreacting...I probably deserve it, but as a Peavy owner, I'm a bit disappointed/frustrated/PO'ed/worried about the season he is having. I just hope I am overreacting and he will be fine, but I'm also starting to accept the fact the Peavy might not be his normal self the rest of this season if he is injured.


I have seen none of this anywhere else. Not on Yahoo rotoworld or the Padres site. Is this old news? Or bogus news?
Image
mrider
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2562
Joined: 1 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Rogers Centre

Postby Dan Lambskin » Tue Jun 20, 2006 9:09 am

mrider wrote:
Jabs wrote:As reported on TGBaseball:

Jake Peavy said he will have an MRI on his right shoulder before his next start. Peavy called the meeting with Dr. Yocum Friday in San Diego a Precautionary. Said Peavy " We've got awesome doctors in San Diego, but when you have a chance to see one of the best, why not? "

Now maybe it's just me being a pessimist, but people just don't go see a doctor for no reason. I have never been sitting at home and all of a sudden thought to myself, "Hey, there is a great doctor in town so I'm going to stop by to have an MRI for no reason." Peavy cleary hasn't been himself this season, minus a game here or there. I'm almost starting to think there is something else going on here. We can all keep telling ourselves there is nothing wrong with Peavy and he'll snap out of this soon until we are blue in the face, but when do we face reality? Peavy has been an absolute stud since he came into the league, but 4-8 with a 4.81 ERA this year is not Jake Peavy.

Go ahead, blast me for overreacting...I probably deserve it, but as a Peavy owner, I'm a bit disappointed/frustrated/PO'ed/worried about the season he is having. I just hope I am overreacting and he will be fine, but I'm also starting to accept the fact the Peavy might not be his normal self the rest of this season if he is injured.


I have seen none of this anywhere else. Not on Yahoo rotoworld or the Padres site. Is this old news? Or bogus news?


CBS reported it too, but take that for what it's worth.

still, i never want to see one of my players and "Dr. Lewis Yocum" in the same sentance
Image
Dan Lambskin
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeLucky Ladders ChampionPick 3 Weekly WinnerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorTrivia Time Trial Monthly Winner
Posts: 10225
(Past Year: 1)
Joined: 20 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby The Loveable Losers » Tue Jun 20, 2006 10:01 am

CadensDad wrote:
BillyHallDisciple wrote:also, have you seen Liriano pitch? The guy is dominant.


As good as he may be he's not a 1st round player, or 2nd, 3rd, or 10th. Peavy is a 1-3 round player and a pure STUD.


I would have to disagree a bit on where to cast Liriano. He's definitely not first-round talent but I don't think he's a 10th rounder either. The kid's got an 11.1 k/9 ratio with a 2.8 bb/9 and a 0.33 hr/9. More importantly his 57.9% gb% mean that the hr/9 is not too far off from where it should be - 0.46. Those ratios are honestly close to first round value and only his inexperience and possible limits to his workload give me pause on putting him very high.

To put those ratios into perspective here are the era and whip to which they project (using the 0.46 hr/9): 2.13 era with a 1.069 whip.
Do I expect him to keep this up? Probably not the k/9...a lot of that was accumulated out of the bullpen. Looking at his minor league numbers and his production so far as a starter I think expecting the current k/9 rate as a starter (8.75 k/9) to continue is a good expectation.

So let's do a full workup on what to expect from Liriano the rest of the way. Starting with the component ratios we'll throw out some conservative round numbers:
8.75 k/9, 2.80 bb/9, 0.50 hr/9

Now let's translate those into an expected era and whip:
2.71 era, 1.178 whip

He'll also average about 6 innings per outing (being conservative here...he's pitched 6.5 innings per outing over his last 4 and shows an upward trend in his 6 starts - 5, 5, 6, 6, 7, 7) giving him about a 67% chance of getting a decision in each outing. Given his team's 4.72 runs scored per game and estimating his runs given up per game to be about 2.98 (I use 1.1 * era to simulate unearned runs) I'd project him with a winning percentage of .698 (he's just that hard to beat if he continues to pitch the way he's pitching). I'll be conservative and say that I expect him to pitch another 18 starts (that's a pro-rated 32 start season rounding down as well). He should get about 12 decisions in which he should go 8-4 while pitching 108 innings.

So for the remainder of the season here's what I would expect from Liriano as a very conservative estimate:
108ip, 18g, 18gs, 8w, 4l, 94h, 105k, 33bb, 6hr, 2.71 era, 1.178 whip

Again, he's young and inexperienced at the major league level. They're also going to keep his workload light (which these numbers actually take into account). Those issues definitely drop him down a bit. But take a look at those numbers and ask yourself where they put him in the context of a mid-season draft. I think those are definitely better than 10th round. How high depends on how risk averse you are in general and how highly you normally draft pitchers in particular. But they're definitely worth a high draft pick regardless of where you stand on those issues.

Incidentally, here's what I expect the final line to look like for Liriano.

So far:
58.1ip, 18g, 6gs, 6w, 1l, 47h, 67k, 17bb, 2hr, 14er, 2.16era, 1.10whip

From this point on:
108ip, 18g, 18gs, 8w, 4l, 95h, 105k, 33bb, 6hr, 33er, 2.75 era, 1.185 whip

Final Line:
166.1ip, 36g, 24gs, 14w, 5l, 142h, 172k, 50bb, 8hr, 47er, 2.54era, 1.154whip
The Loveable Losers
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterWeb Supporter
Posts: 7290
Joined: 30 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Cubs Win!!! Cubs Win!!!

Postby Jabs » Wed Jun 21, 2006 6:02 am

mrider wrote:
Jabs wrote:As reported on TGBaseball:

Jake Peavy said he will have an MRI on his right shoulder before his next start. Peavy called the meeting with Dr. Yocum Friday in San Diego a Precautionary. Said Peavy " We've got awesome doctors in San Diego, but when you have a chance to see one of the best, why not? "

Now maybe it's just me being a pessimist, but people just don't go see a doctor for no reason. I have never been sitting at home and all of a sudden thought to myself, "Hey, there is a great doctor in town so I'm going to stop by to have an MRI for no reason." Peavy cleary hasn't been himself this season, minus a game here or there. I'm almost starting to think there is something else going on here. We can all keep telling ourselves there is nothing wrong with Peavy and he'll snap out of this soon until we are blue in the face, but when do we face reality? Peavy has been an absolute stud since he came into the league, but 4-8 with a 4.81 ERA this year is not Jake Peavy.

Go ahead, blast me for overreacting...I probably deserve it, but as a Peavy owner, I'm a bit disappointed/frustrated/PO'ed/worried about the season he is having. I just hope I am overreacting and he will be fine, but I'm also starting to accept the fact the Peavy might not be his normal self the rest of this season if he is injured.


I have seen none of this anywhere else. Not on Yahoo rotoworld or the Padres site. Is this old news? Or bogus news?


Here is the link to his player page on TGBaseball....dated 6/20/06.

http://www.letsplay2.com/baseball/profi ... yerId=3075

Read into it how you will, but like Dan Lambskin said, I never want to see my pitcher's name with Dr. Yocum in the same sentence.
Jabs
Softball Supervisor
Softball Supervisor


Posts: 89
Joined: 2 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby haveuseenm » Wed Jun 21, 2006 12:42 pm

If you find the right person they are still very interested in Peavy. I just traded Peavy and Burgos for D. Lee :-) :-) :-) :-)
we're not a city, we're not a state, we're a nation royals nation
haveuseenm
Softball Supervisor
Softball Supervisor


Posts: 58
Joined: 6 Jun 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Down the street from the K

Previous

Return to Injuries & Player Updates

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Thursday, Apr. 17
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Atlanta at Philadelphia
(1:05 pm)
Cleveland at Detroit
(1:08 pm)
Toronto at Minnesota
(1:10 pm)
Seattle at Texas
(2:05 pm)
LA Dodgers at San Francisco
(3:45 pm)
Colorado at San Diego
(6:40 pm)
Milwaukee at Pittsburgh
(7:05 pm)
St. Louis at Washington
(7:05 pm)
NY Yankees at Tampa Bay
(7:10 pm)
indoors
Boston at Chi White Sox
(8:10 pm)
Kansas City at Houston
(8:10 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact