BillyHallDisciple wrote:also, have you seen Liriano pitch? The guy is dominant.
As good as he may be he's not a 1st round player, or 2nd, 3rd, or 10th. Peavy is a 1-3 round player and a pure STUD.
I would have to disagree a bit on where to cast Liriano. He's definitely not first-round talent but I don't think he's a 10th rounder either. The kid's got an 11.1 k/9 ratio with a 2.8 bb/9 and a 0.33 hr/9. More importantly his 57.9% gb% mean that the hr/9 is not too far off from where it should be - 0.46. Those ratios are honestly close to first round value and only his inexperience and possible limits to his workload give me pause on putting him very high.
To put those ratios into perspective here are the era and whip to which they project (using the 0.46 hr/9): 2.13 era with a 1.069 whip.
Do I expect him to keep this up? Probably not the k/9...a lot of that was accumulated out of the bullpen. Looking at his minor league numbers and his production so far as a starter I think expecting the current k/9 rate as a starter (8.75 k/9) to continue is a good expectation.
So let's do a full workup on what to expect from Liriano the rest of the way. Starting with the component ratios we'll throw out some conservative round numbers:
8.75 k/9, 2.80 bb/9, 0.50 hr/9
Now let's translate those into an expected era and whip:
2.71 era, 1.178 whip
He'll also average about 6 innings per outing (being conservative here...he's pitched 6.5 innings per outing over his last 4 and shows an upward trend in his 6 starts - 5, 5, 6, 6, 7, 7) giving him about a 67% chance of getting a decision in each outing. Given his team's 4.72 runs scored per game and estimating his runs given up per game to be about 2.98 (I use 1.1 * era to simulate unearned runs) I'd project him with a winning percentage of .698 (he's just that hard to beat if he continues to pitch the way he's pitching). I'll be conservative and say that I expect him to pitch another 18 starts (that's a pro-rated 32 start season rounding down as well). He should get about 12 decisions in which he should go 8-4 while pitching 108 innings.
So for the remainder of the season here's what I would expect from Liriano as a very conservative estimate:
108ip, 18g, 18gs, 8w, 4l, 94h, 105k, 33bb, 6hr, 2.71 era, 1.178 whip
Again, he's young and inexperienced at the major league level. They're also going to keep his workload light (which these numbers actually take into account). Those issues definitely drop him down a bit. But take a look at those numbers and ask yourself where they put him in the context of a mid-season draft. I think those are definitely better than 10th round. How high depends on how risk averse you are in general and how highly you normally draft pitchers in particular. But they're definitely worth a high draft pick regardless of where you stand on those issues.
Incidentally, here's what I expect the final line to look like for Liriano.
58.1ip, 18g, 6gs, 6w, 1l, 47h, 67k, 17bb, 2hr, 14er, 2.16era, 1.10whip
From this point on:
108ip, 18g, 18gs, 8w, 4l, 95h, 105k, 33bb, 6hr, 33er, 2.75 era, 1.185 whip
166.1ip, 36g, 24gs, 14w, 5l, 142h, 172k, 50bb, 8hr, 47er, 2.54era, 1.154whip