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Andy Pettitte

Postby NikkiSixx » Wed Jun 14, 2006 1:42 am

Pettitte has been up and down this year, and has also been frustrating for many owners when the started him in Washington and he got rocked (7 ER in 3 innings). However, this is his 2nd straight quality start, and even though it was against the lowly Cubs, he did dominate after the 3rd inning when he was struck on the inside of his leg by a line drive.


Now, last year he was almost as good as Johan Santana after the all-star break. He posted a 1.69 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 91 K's in 111.2 innings, not to mention he also had 11 wins. This was just another case of a good pitcher from the AL coming to the NL and dominating...it isnt the first time that has happened and it most certainly wont be the last. I do not expect his numbers to be as extreme as they were post all-star last year, but I am still very confident he will be an excellent real life and fantasy pitcher from here on out.


If you are a frustrated Pettitte owner, hold onto him. If you need pitching, buy low now and get Pettitte on your roster ASAP, you will not regret it.
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Postby Half Massed » Wed Jun 14, 2006 1:48 am

Well no one in their right mind expected Pettitte to put up numbers like last year's, but you're right in the fact that he is still a good pitcher. People sour quickly when a guy doesn't meet lofty expectations and will often sell them for less than their value to "cut their losses." Despite his struggles this season, Pettitte is still a fine pitcher to have.
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Postby WittyC » Wed Jun 14, 2006 2:00 am

I'm in the boat that the second half of last year was a fluke.

Perhaps there was some AL to NL dominance factor, but a lot of that was also due to opposing hitters seeing him for the first time. Now they know what to expect, and that band box in Houston is catching back up with him as his HR/F and increased BABIP will show.

Pettitte is not a terrible option, but I haven't seen him as more than a middle-tier #3 starter since the days when he had that ridiculous Yankee offense behind him. I wouldn't expect much more than a 4.15 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 95 K's and 7-10 wins for the remainder of the season. Not bad, but you probably won't pry him away for cheap from someone who grabbed him in the fourth round and is waiting for another 2nd half like '05.
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Postby ravenmad22 » Wed Jun 14, 2006 2:58 am

LOL I posted basically the same thing a couple days ago and no one responded:

http://fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/v ... p?t=216266

Anywho, tonights performance was against the cubs... but I'm pretty sure we're seeing a turnaround from Pettitte. He usually heats up around this time of year.
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Re: Andy Pettitte

Postby mweir145 » Wed Jun 14, 2006 3:35 am

NikkiSixx wrote:If you are a frustrated Pettitte owner, hold onto him. If you need pitching, buy low now and get Pettitte on your roster ASAP, you will not regret it.

I have been. I'm confident he can turn it around. His upside (see 2005 stats after the AS-break) is too great not to keep him. He's the guy who practically got me into the finals by himself last season.
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Postby johnsamo » Wed Jun 14, 2006 4:24 am

Pettite's one of those pitchers where perfect mechanics is everything. He's either VERY GOOD or VERY BAD, there's rarely any middle ground. Some guys are throwers and can adjust if something is off and manage to get by throwing from various arm angles, different arm speeds, varied windups, etc.., but Petitte is like a Swiss watch... If one part isn't working, he's useless, if everything is working, he's fantastic.

Watching on TV, when he's got his mechanics working right, it's hard to tell why he's doing so well because he's got a good but not overpowering fastball, and his stuff doesn't break all that much, but it's that his various pitches are so hard to read that makes him tough too hit. He doesn't tip his pitches in his release and his stuff breaks very late, so the cutter and the slider look a lot like the fastball. That's why he gets a lot of ground ball outs and pop ups when he's on. You think it's a fastball, and when it's too late to adjust your swing, the ball dips or cuts in on you.

But when his mechanics are off, he can't locate, he walks more guys (never good) he leaves it out over the plate more (never good) and it gets him into hitter's counts (never good) where the hitter can guess fastball and be right more often.

But anyway, being a longtime Yankee fan, these first 2 months haven't been a huge surprise and haven't worried me too much even though I had him on my team. He's had these spells before (usually early) where he's not sharp, and then suddenly, he figures it out, the muscle memory kicks in and he's like a machine usually the rest of the season. I may bench him one more start just to make sure this last game wasn't a fluke, but I expect very soon he's gonna make a lot of guys who dropped him very ill.
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Postby stumpak » Wed Jun 14, 2006 8:44 am

Petitte has always gotten a bum rap fantasy-wise from knee-jerk Yankee haters. Sure his WHIP and ERA are nothing write home about, but he will pick up Ws in Houston and always has a good K rate.

If you can still buy him low, he is a good pick-up.
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Postby pangbones » Wed Jun 14, 2006 9:15 am

I am a frustrated Pettitte owner. I was glad to see last night's performance. I got him as my #4 SP in the 9th round. He's been terrible at times and brilliant at others. Last year, he was great after the ASB, but even before the break, he was still pretty good. No where near as bad as he's been this year. I hope he can continue to improve. ;-D
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Re: Andy Pettitte

Postby Pogotheostrich » Wed Jun 14, 2006 9:23 am

NikkiSixx wrote:This was just another case of a good pitcher from the AL coming to the NL and dominating...it isnt the first time that has happened and it most certainly wont be the last.


I know this is off-track but I am so sick of this comments like this. Pettitte's ERA in the NL is 3.41 with a 1.28 WHIP and these number are with his great 2nd half in 05. His career AL ERA was 3.94 with a 1.31 WHIP. For his last 3 years in the AL he had a 3.82 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. Some improvement is expected since he gets to face the pitcher instead of the DH. I don't see domination.
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Re: Andy Pettitte

Postby NikkiSixx » Wed Jun 14, 2006 11:33 am

Pogotheostrich wrote:
NikkiSixx wrote:This was just another case of a good pitcher from the AL coming to the NL and dominating...it isnt the first time that has happened and it most certainly wont be the last.


I know this is off-track but I am so sick of this comments like this. Pettitte's ERA in the NL is 3.41 with a 1.28 WHIP and these number are with his great 2nd half in 05. His career AL ERA was 3.94 with a 1.31 WHIP. For his last 3 years in the AL he had a 3.82 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. Some improvement is expected since he gets to face the pitcher instead of the DH. I don't see domination.

Well why dont you recalculate those numbers at the end of the season. Plus he had an injury riddled first season in the NL, and he was amazing last year. I would much rather pitch against another pitcher at the plate rather than a DH, and I would most certainly rather pitch against the NL's catchers rather than the AL's catchers. Plus, most of the offenses in the NL are just generally weaker than those in the AL. Andy Pettitte was fantastic last year, but do you really think he would have been as great in the AL? his '05 would probably look like a 3.00 ERA, and a 1.15 WHIP, thats a big difference from a 2.39 ERA, and a 1.03 WHIP.
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