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WHIP: The most important pitching category.

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Postby The Loveable Losers » Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:42 pm

garf112 wrote:
Zito is God wrote:
garf112 wrote:
Zito is God wrote:The thing is, I agree that Ks are arguably the most solid stat because you are not giving the hitter even a chance to beat out a grounder or get a sac fly etc. However, there are many pitchers who simply are not K pitchers, yet do a solid job on the mound. This is where WHIP comes in. There are so many sinkerballer pitchers who just get infinite groundouts during their starts but have a low K ratio so they get passed by.


Doesn't this make gb/fb ratio the most important stat? Not WHIP

It actually could be debated that it is.


I think it is debatable, but you can have a very good ratio and still give up a ton of hits and runs being a sinkerballer. You don't HAVE to give up HRs to be a bad pitcher. GB/FB is a big reason I traded Vazques away (I am regretting it now because the guy I got for him...well, lets just say I REALLY needed a shortstop). Yet I will say again that WHIP means you aren't giving up the hits period, GB/FB could still have a high WHIP and is simply giving up a lot of grounders.


Basically to be a successful pitcher you need to do three things:

1) Strike people out
2) Keep people from hitting the ball in the air
3) Limit your walks

In that order. If you can do all three, you are an elite pitcher. If you break pitchers into categories, the best strike guys out and have a high gb%.... There are about 8 categories and the worst are flyball pitchers that don't strike anybody out.

WHIP has too much luck involved in it. Any pitcher will allow balls to fall in for hits at about a 30% rate.

If you are unable to find these stats, you might be better off just going with WHIP, but knowing that it is a flawed statistic.


First I completely agree with this post and that will save me a lot of the typing I needed to do.

Second I agree with Zito is God in one regard - if I had to pick one number from the 'back of the baseball card' type statistics it would be whip. It's certainly better than era or wins. If I was allowed to make one minor calculation I think I'd almost rather go with k/bb than whip but it's close.

Lastly I use two numbers when I'm actually evaluating pitchers. They're both projected numbers - one projects era and the other projects whip.

DICE = 3.00 + ((13 * HR + 3 * BB&HBP - 2 * K) / IP)

pWhip = ((0.4 * (3 * IP - K)) + BB + HR) / IP

DICE was created by Voros McCracken. pWhip I created myself but if you read the article it's more common sense based on the work that others have done than any huge leap that I made myself. These numbers can be spit out to you en masse by dumping projections/past year's data into a spreadsheet and making an extra column for both of the numbers. If you want to delve even deeper I would recommend looking at gb/fb percentages (ground ball pitchers will give up fewer extra base hits overall which isn't reflected here...only the home runs are reflected here) and also look at the hr/f ratio normalized to park (The Hardball Times is a good place to get stats like that) as anything significantly different from 11-12% would be a cause to expect a regression back to the mean in home run totals.
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Postby J35J » Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:48 pm

PlayingWithFire wrote:
J35J wrote:
garf112 wrote:
Zito is God wrote:
garf112 wrote:
Zito is God wrote:The thing is, I agree that Ks are arguably the most solid stat because you are not giving the hitter even a chance to beat out a grounder or get a sac fly etc. However, there are many pitchers who simply are not K pitchers, yet do a solid job on the mound. This is where WHIP comes in. There are so many sinkerballer pitchers who just get infinite groundouts during their starts but have a low K ratio so they get passed by.


Doesn't this make gb/fb ratio the most important stat? Not WHIP

It actually could be debated that it is.


I think it is debatable, but you can have a very good ratio and still give up a ton of hits and runs being a sinkerballer. You don't HAVE to give up HRs to be a bad pitcher. GB/FB is a big reason I traded Vazques away (I am regretting it now because the guy I got for him...well, lets just say I REALLY needed a shortstop). Yet I will say again that WHIP means you aren't giving up the hits period, GB/FB could still have a high WHIP and is simply giving up a lot of grounders.


Basically to be a successful pitcher you need to do three things:

1) Strike people out
2) Keep people from hitting the ball in the air
3) Limit your walks

In that order. If you can do all three, you are an elite pitcher. If you break pitchers into categories, the best strike guys out and have a high gb%.... There are about 8 categories and the worst are flyball pitchers that don't strike anybody out.


WHIP has too much luck involved in it. Any pitcher will allow balls to fall in for hits at about a 30% rate.

If you are unable to find these stats, you might be better off just going with WHIP, but knowing that it is a flawed statistic.



I would have to disagree with the bolded. From the 3 you mentioned, here is how I would make the order of importance......

1. Limit your walks
2. Limit your walks
3. Strike people out
4. Keep people from hitting the ball in the air

Jason


is fb/gb ratio really that important? Jered Weaver is a fly ball pitcher and he's being successful.

really I think it's

1. Strike people out
2. Keep people from hitting the ball hard
3. Limit Walks(you can have success by nibbling and walk a few a game, see: Josh Johnson)



Hmmm, I'm really amazed that people don't realize that limiting walks is the most important thing a pitcher can do..... :-?

Jason
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Postby garf112 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:48 pm

"Is gb/fb ratio that important?"


YES!!! The ONLY way that a pitcher can limit the number of HRs that he gives up is not letting the hitter hit the ball in the air. A pitchers HR%/fb always regresses to the mean of 11%.

Jered Weaver has gotten over 20% of batters to pop up IN THE INFIELD. Which could mean one of two things... He is getting lucky or Hitters are somehow more prone to hitting popups in the infield when facing Weaver. This is a possibility, but is usually reserved for lefties and knuckleballers. I love Weaver, but the biggest reason for his success is a pretty high K/rate and a little luck.

He has stranded 90% of runners... that rate should go down to about 70%, which means a spike in ERA.

Bottom line: Jered Weaver is good, but not as good as he has shown so far in the majors.
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:49 pm

PlayingWithFire wrote:is fb/gb ratio really that important? Jered Weaver is a fly ball pitcher and he's being successful.


Weaver is succeeding because of a 9.1 k/9 and 1.6 bb/9 ratio. You can get away with a 24.5% ground ball percentage when you put up ratios like that. With his gb% you would expect about 2.44 hr's so far for him...he's given up 2. We're looking at a VERY small sample size with Weaver but assuming his hr/9 goes up to about 1.31 hr/9 where it should be based on his extreme fly ball tendencies but he manages to stay steady with the k/9 and bb/9 numbers you could expect an era of about 3.41 and a whip of about 1.189. If you strike out over a batter an inning and walk less than two batters a game then you can give up a tater every outing and live to tell about it.
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Postby PlayingWithFire » Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:51 pm

J35J wrote:
PlayingWithFire wrote:
J35J wrote:
garf112 wrote:
Zito is God wrote:
garf112 wrote:
Zito is God wrote:The thing is, I agree that Ks are arguably the most solid stat because you are not giving the hitter even a chance to beat out a grounder or get a sac fly etc. However, there are many pitchers who simply are not K pitchers, yet do a solid job on the mound. This is where WHIP comes in. There are so many sinkerballer pitchers who just get infinite groundouts during their starts but have a low K ratio so they get passed by.


Doesn't this make gb/fb ratio the most important stat? Not WHIP

It actually could be debated that it is.


I think it is debatable, but you can have a very good ratio and still give up a ton of hits and runs being a sinkerballer. You don't HAVE to give up HRs to be a bad pitcher. GB/FB is a big reason I traded Vazques away (I am regretting it now because the guy I got for him...well, lets just say I REALLY needed a shortstop). Yet I will say again that WHIP means you aren't giving up the hits period, GB/FB could still have a high WHIP and is simply giving up a lot of grounders.


Basically to be a successful pitcher you need to do three things:

1) Strike people out
2) Keep people from hitting the ball in the air
3) Limit your walks

In that order. If you can do all three, you are an elite pitcher. If you break pitchers into categories, the best strike guys out and have a high gb%.... There are about 8 categories and the worst are flyball pitchers that don't strike anybody out.


WHIP has too much luck involved in it. Any pitcher will allow balls to fall in for hits at about a 30% rate.

If you are unable to find these stats, you might be better off just going with WHIP, but knowing that it is a flawed statistic.



I would have to disagree with the bolded. From the 3 you mentioned, here is how I would make the order of importance......

1. Limit your walks
2. Limit your walks
3. Strike people out
4. Keep people from hitting the ball in the air

Jason


is fb/gb ratio really that important? Jered Weaver is a fly ball pitcher and he's being successful.

really I think it's

1. Strike people out
2. Keep people from hitting the ball hard
3. Limit Walks(you can have success by nibbling and walk a few a game, see: Josh Johnson)



Hmmm, I'm really amazed that people don't realize that limiting walks is the most important thing a pitcher can do..... :-?

Jason


hmm, let's say if Jose Lima stopped walking people all of a sudden, will he be a cy young winner?

Striking people out shows that you have good stuff, so does keeping people from hitting the ball hard. Granted, you could be Ollie Perez but I'd rather have talent before anything else.
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Postby J35J » Mon Jun 12, 2006 6:00 pm

PlayingWithFire wrote:
J35J wrote:
PlayingWithFire wrote:
J35J wrote:
garf112 wrote:
Zito is God wrote:
garf112 wrote:
Zito is God wrote:The thing is, I agree that Ks are arguably the most solid stat because you are not giving the hitter even a chance to beat out a grounder or get a sac fly etc. However, there are many pitchers who simply are not K pitchers, yet do a solid job on the mound. This is where WHIP comes in. There are so many sinkerballer pitchers who just get infinite groundouts during their starts but have a low K ratio so they get passed by.


Doesn't this make gb/fb ratio the most important stat? Not WHIP

It actually could be debated that it is.


I think it is debatable, but you can have a very good ratio and still give up a ton of hits and runs being a sinkerballer. You don't HAVE to give up HRs to be a bad pitcher. GB/FB is a big reason I traded Vazques away (I am regretting it now because the guy I got for him...well, lets just say I REALLY needed a shortstop). Yet I will say again that WHIP means you aren't giving up the hits period, GB/FB could still have a high WHIP and is simply giving up a lot of grounders.


Basically to be a successful pitcher you need to do three things:

1) Strike people out
2) Keep people from hitting the ball in the air
3) Limit your walks

In that order. If you can do all three, you are an elite pitcher. If you break pitchers into categories, the best strike guys out and have a high gb%.... There are about 8 categories and the worst are flyball pitchers that don't strike anybody out.


WHIP has too much luck involved in it. Any pitcher will allow balls to fall in for hits at about a 30% rate.

If you are unable to find these stats, you might be better off just going with WHIP, but knowing that it is a flawed statistic.



I would have to disagree with the bolded. From the 3 you mentioned, here is how I would make the order of importance......

1. Limit your walks
2. Limit your walks
3. Strike people out
4. Keep people from hitting the ball in the air

Jason


is fb/gb ratio really that important? Jered Weaver is a fly ball pitcher and he's being successful.

really I think it's

1. Strike people out
2. Keep people from hitting the ball hard
3. Limit Walks(you can have success by nibbling and walk a few a game, see: Josh Johnson)



Hmmm, I'm really amazed that people don't realize that limiting walks is the most important thing a pitcher can do..... :-?

Jason


hmm, let's say if Jose Lima stopped walking people all of a sudden, will he be a cy young winner?

Striking people out shows that you have good stuff, so does keeping people from hitting the ball hard. Granted, you could be Ollie Perez but I'd rather have talent before anything else.


8-o

I don't have time to get into this as I'm leaving from work but, wow.

Ollie P, Daniel, C. Denny B., S. Kazmir (before he could find the plate) ALL THE ROYALS pitching prospects. Just because you can strike a guy out means nothing if you can't find the plate. Not walking guys is A #1 of importance.

Sorry couldn't get into it more with you, gotta go. Maybe pick this back up tomorrow.......

later guys


Jason
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Postby J35J » Mon Jun 12, 2006 9:54 pm

Just to make a few points about the "limit the walks" vs "striking guys out" debate and then I will drop the topic as there really isn't an argument to be made but.....

How did the Unit turn his career around to become one of the greatest pitchers of all time?..... control (limiting walks) he went from 90-150 walks in a season to 40-70 during his prime years.

What is keeping Carlos Zambrano from being a top 5 pitcher? Control.... he consistantly walks 80+ guys a season.

Why is Brandon Webb so dominate now? He went from walking 119 guys a couple years ago to being on pace for just over 30 walks this year. 8-o

Mulder is declining pretty fast these last couple of years, well, he has put up 20-30 more walks in a season than when he was a pretty solid major league pitcher.

Why is Tony Armas having such a good start to the season? Well he was always on pace for 90+ walks in a season (alot of injuries) and now this season he is on pace for around 65ish.

Why do prospects get sent up and down from the minors or why do they struggle to even make it to the majors? Its because they need to limit there walks and harness there control, managers don't say...... well if Jim Bob could just strike out more guys he would be up here....... Its always, well if Jim Bob could find his control........


Anyway, I've babbled on too much. Control (limiting walks) is and always has been the most important thing for a pitcher to posses.

:-°
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Postby teddyballgamemvp » Tue Jun 13, 2006 9:25 am

OPS against is the best stat. MLB.com doesn't collect it, but you can piece it together since it gives the components.
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Postby Dr. StrangeGlove » Tue Jun 13, 2006 11:19 am

Does anyone consider DIPS (Defence Independent) stats important in evaluating pitchers?
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Postby Trot Nixon » Tue Jun 13, 2006 12:30 pm

The_Met_Threat wrote:You can't just look at whip. I guess its better than looking at ERA and wins of course, and whip is a much better indicator of a pitchers skills than those two. But a pitcher can have a low whip but an inflated era pretty easily too. Look at Eric Milton for example, he has a 1.12 whip but a 4.10 era, its because he gives up so many HR. I think a combination of low whip/low hr, is a great analyzer of how a pitcher will do.
Exactly what I thought of when I read that, I mean WHIP is a great indicator but it doesn't tell the whole story.
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