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SPs...More Fun With Numbers

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SPs...More Fun With Numbers

Postby Y`s Guy » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:45 am

For me the SP better win. That's why I have to target only SPs on good teams even if I load up on #2s and #s. If they don't win then I target K men.

Anyway, this morning I wanted to see the guys who are the best at winning games and do it in the least time.

Jered Weaver - 19.1 IP / 3 wins = 6.37 IP / win (no this won't keep up)

Gustavo Chacin!! - 8.52 IP / W
Mike Maroth - 9.6 IP / W
Tom Glavine - 9.46 IP / W
Curt Schilling - 9.68 IP / W
Wandy Rodriguez - 10.01 IP / W
Ian Snell - 10.29 IP / W
Jason Marquis - 10.38 / W

On the other side...

Scott Elarton - 80.2 IP / W :-P
Dontrell Willis!!! - 28.37 IP / W :-P
Doug Davis - 27 IP / W
David Bush - 22.3 IP / W


Seeing numbers like this make it almost easy to drop a David Bush (good control #s) for an Ian Snell (can't believe he was still available to me last night)


Hey, I was bored. Maybe I'll call the stat...WEFF for Winning Efficiency.
Last edited by Y`s Guy on Mon Jun 12, 2006 9:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby mak1277 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:49 am

Stat isn't worth much unless there's some correlation with another stat or set of facts to make it predictive and not just based on luck. I mean, Snell's ERA and WHIP aren't exactly special, and he's managed 7 wins on a below average team. Look at Doug Davis versus Capuano last year. Pitched for the same team, had very similar stats, Cap crushed him in wins. No way to predict something like that.
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Postby Philliebuster » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:55 am

Snell is on the pirates though, do you take that into consideration, the run support he most likely would get.
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Postby Y`s Guy » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:59 am

True, you can't predict WEFF before a season starts. That's why it's smart to get the SPs on good teams.

BUT...once the season starts a pattern develops. You see the winners and the hard-luck guys. Sometimes it is better to bite the bullet and take a 4.33 ERA if the guys wins often. And Snell was hammered in one game and I think had another bad outing. The rest of his starts have been great.

You are correct, you can't predict WEFF. Bu it is a good indicator to show who to trade for. For example, Dontrell isn't helping anyone in the W column. So trade him in a package for a bat and a Snell.

Philliebuster...Snell has been on that team all season and he has 7 wins. That's what I look at. Sure, he may have a drought later but right now his WEFF is terrific.

Look at Tim Wakefield...great run-scoring team but his WEFF is bad. 21.75 IP / W. So don't consider run support. This stat is an in-season indicator.
Last edited by Y`s Guy on Mon Jun 12, 2006 9:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby MikeFromNY » Mon Jun 12, 2006 9:07 am

Y`s Guy wrote:BUT...once the season starts the pattern is set. You see the winners and the hard-luck guys.


I don't think that's true.
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Postby mak1277 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 9:08 am

So you consider it somewhat predictive of performance for the rest of the year? In other words, you feel like Wakefield's WEFF (or whatever) will continue to be poor?

Isn't it just as likely that he would regress to the mean, which would indicate that now would be a good time to trade for him?
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Postby MikeFromNY » Mon Jun 12, 2006 9:14 am

mak1277 wrote:So you consider it somewhat predictive of performance for the rest of the year? In other words, you feel like Wakefield's WEFF (or whatever) will continue to be poor?

Isn't it just as likely that he would regress to the mean, which would indicate that now would be a good time to trade for him?


That's the way I look at it.

Things based on "luck" aren't predictive.
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Postby Y`s Guy » Mon Jun 12, 2006 9:27 am

You can't predict everything.

Is Schilling lucky to be winning 9 games?
Is Wandy Rodriguez lucky? If so, why? Just because he's Wandy freaking Rodriguez?
Is Ian Snell lucky?

I think the guys so far with great WEFF numbers are pitching well and will continue. It's my gut talking andI have been playing since 1990. I just made this real simple stat up this morning. I have no history to back anything up with.

As for Wake...I don't see him a a big winner. Maybe 11 wins tops in 180 IP.

And yes, some WEFFs will improve and some get better. Watch Dontrelle as he goes along. He'll probably end up at 13.5 (14 Ws in 189 IP).

With today's specialization in the pitching it is hard to get Ws consistently. But WEFF shows who is and who isn't winning consistently.
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Postby Philliebuster » Mon Jun 12, 2006 9:36 am

Alright lets take a guy like Kelvim Escobar, compared to Ian Snell, would you take Snell over Escobar? Escobar has been pitching great, but has not the wins to prove it. KE is on the more winning team and the Angels are heating up. How could one justify taking Snell over someone like that?
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Postby mak1277 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 9:41 am

Y`s Guy wrote:I think the guys so far with great WEFF numbers are pitching well and will continue.


I'll admit this is a somewhat silly example, but:

O. Villarreal - 4.3 innings per win, 4.99 ERA, 1.57 WHIP. Now, I can't imagine you're jumping all over this guy.

Do you honestly believe Wandy is going to keep his pace up? He plays for a team is, to date, very average. His WHIP and ERA numbers are average at best also. If anything, to me, I'd be selling Wandy because I don't think he could keep this pace up.

Your "stat" might be valuable if there were some sort of historical average. In other words, if the "average" pitcher earned a win every "x" innings. You could then buy or sell based on variances from that average. But to simply say, so-and-so has a high or low WEFF, so I'm going to sell or buy him... in a vacuum, that's meaningless.
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