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Young Guns: Sell high? Buy low?

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Young Guns: Sell high? Buy low?

Postby Yoda » Wed Jun 07, 2006 11:08 am

Current stats need to be taken with a grain of salt since majority of Liriano's stats came as MR and Hamels only has 3 starts. Also, Cain's pitched much better as of late, etc:

Hamels: 3 GS, 1 W, 17 IP, 9 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 HR, 11 BB, 14 K, 2.65 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 0.158 BAA
Felix: 12 GS, 5 W, 69.1 IP, 79 H, 48 R, 41 ER, 11 HR, 25 BB, 68 K, 5.32 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 0.248 BAA
Verlander: 11 GS, 7 W, 72 IP, 65 H, 27 R, 25 ER, 8 HR, 20 BB, 43 K, 3.13 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 0.243 BAA
Cain: 10 GS, 4 W, 60 IP, 53 H, 37 R, 34 ER, 9 HR, 24 BB, 46 K, 5.10 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 0.231 BAA
Liriano: 4 GS, 4 W, 44.1 IP, 41 H, 15 R, 12 ER, 1 HR, 14 BB, 50 K, 2.44 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 0.248 BAA

Looking at these numbers, I was generally surprised by how similar Verlander and Cain's numbers are. I don't have G/F numbers but their peripherals are very similar although Verlander has more IP. I'll try to keep this post updated.
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Re: Young Guns: Sell high? Buy low?

Postby cordscords » Wed Jun 07, 2006 11:24 am

Sell High- Hamels, Liriano, Verlander
Buy Low- King Felix
Keep- Cain

This is just in a redraft league. If you are in a keeper league, keep those guys.
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Re: Young Guns: Sell high? Buy low?

Postby slomo007 » Wed Jun 07, 2006 11:47 am

cordscords wrote:Sell High- Hamels, Liriano, Verlander
Buy Low- King Felix
Keep- Cain

This is just in a redraft league. If you are in a keeper league, keep those guys.


I would mostly agree with this. Verlander would be my only question mark. Honestly, his stuff is so filthy that it doesn't matter if he's had an easy schedule so far or not. But, he needs to get that finger healthy first, so that he can throw his offspeed pitches more consistently and with better control. The "sell-high" label on him should be more due to health concerns than anything. Finger cuts/blisters are typically a short-term problem though, unless your name is Beckett.
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Postby d18Mike » Wed Jun 07, 2006 12:14 pm

My issue with Verlander is just workload. He's on pace to more than double the number of innings he pitched in AAA last year. Love the stuff. Worry about the durability -- not just the arm, but simple fatigue. If the Tigers continue to play well, they'll continue to trot him out. As a Tiger fan, I pray I'm wrong.

I'm probably in the minority on this, but it's a strategy that has always worked well for me in non-keepers.... I ride the young arms the first time through the league, 2-3 months, typically. Then sell while the numbers are still strong.History show pretty clearly that the second time around, the numbers tumble. That shouldn't be a surprise anyone. Hitters adjust.

Obviously there are exceptions, but it's a strategy I've never regretted using.
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Postby slomo007 » Wed Jun 07, 2006 12:16 pm

d18Mike wrote:My issue with Verlander is just workload. He's on pace to more than double the number of innings he pitched in AAA last year. Love the stuff. Worry about the durability -- not just the arm, but simple fatigue. If the Tigers continue to play well, they'll continue to trot him out. As a Tiger fan, I pray I'm wrong.

I'm probably in the minority on this, but it's a strategy that has always worked well for me in non-keepers.... I ride the young arms the first time through the league, 2-3 months, typically. Then sell while the numbers are still strong.History show pretty clearly that the second time around, the numbers tumble. That shouldn't be a surprise anyone. Hitters adjust.

Obviously there are exceptions, but it's a strategy I've never regretted using.


I agree, but I think their values will rise a little more than where they're at now. I'll wait another month or so.
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Postby EnFuego » Wed Jun 07, 2006 2:52 pm

Liriano a sell high? How? Cause if so, I do need a SS.
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Postby bceagles04 » Wed Jun 07, 2006 3:31 pm

How about Jered Weaver...I see him as a great sell high right now.

What do you think
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Postby cordscords » Wed Jun 07, 2006 3:33 pm

bceagles04 wrote:How about Jered Weaver...I see him as a great sell high right now.

What do you think


I'm with you.
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Re: Young Guns: Sell high? Buy low?

Postby Snakes Gould » Wed Jun 07, 2006 3:35 pm

cordscords wrote:Sell High- Hamels



no, no, no, no, no, no, no...never ever sell hamels high. if anything is value is lower now because people will be scared about the injury. after 10 starts of shutout baseball with 95 K's, you'll be basking in his glory.


(seriously tho, keep him.)
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Postby Hobbes » Wed Jun 07, 2006 4:00 pm

I actually own Liriano, Hamels and Weaver in 12-team keeper league (5 keepers).

I was toying with the idea of selling one of them high to get some outfield help, but it's hard to say who has the best long-term potential. In my mind I had them ranked thusly in terms of long-term value (most worthy of keeping):

1. Liriano
2. Hamels
3. Weaver

Does that sound right to anyone? Certainly this year Hamels is likely to get the most team support, but how about long-term keeper value?

With young pitching it's hard to determine how much of their success is due to lack of familiarity and which will are more likely to come back down to earth.

Note: I am not asking for trade advice, merely opinions on long-term value.
Last edited by Hobbes on Wed Jun 07, 2006 4:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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