KolbSaves wrote: The Loveable Losers wrote:
Laean wrote:to that one poster who said .250 is high for dunn, why? hasn't he hit higher than that before? i mean i don't know if he will, nor do i care (since i play in ops instead of avg league), but why can't he?
I wasn't the poster that said that but I'll field it.
Just plugged his numbers from THT's player page
into a formula to predict expected BABIP
(batting average on balls in play) and came out around .275 or so.
Why not just use the babip that's on the page instead of calculating it yourself? It says .250 so I'm not sure where the discrepency lies.
The formula is to determine whether a player's BABIP is based on luck or it's where it should be. I use three metrics to determine what a player's BABIP should be in a luck neutral environment when I'm examining a player:
1) The formula from that page based off of 3-yr averages in the ld%, fb% and k/ab numbers.
2) The player's actual career BABIP
3) The player's actual 3-yr average BABIP
I'll look at those numbers and use some common sense to get to a good middle ground. With Dunn the formula spit out about .275, his career number was around .283 or something and his 3-year average was around .290 (these are off the top of my head...might be a bit off on those). Using common sense I gave a lot of weight to the career number since the 3-yr average was heavily influenced by one fluky season (2004's .321 mark) and settled on a .285 number to expect. That means that this year's mark of .250 is lower than it should be and especially since his ld% is up indicates bad luck. His average should rebound but we're talking about a rebound back in the direction of .250.
That's the thing with Dunn...he has great luck and puts up a .321 BABIP and his average 'spikes' by 16 points to .266. He has terrible luck and puts up a .250 BABIP and his average 'slumps' by 17 points to .233. If anything, Dunn's less likely to slump or streak than other players when it comes to batting average. He just doesn't put enough balls in play to have luck affect him that much.