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What To Do With Dunn

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Postby Yoda » Tue Jun 06, 2006 9:19 am

Zito is God wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Zito is God wrote:I am a huge Dunn fan but traded him for Bay while Bay was cold and Dunn was hot. Dunn will likely still hit .250-.255, but my advice is to wait for consecutive HR games and then trade him while his value bumps up.


Don't make me dig up the old Dunn thread... :-D



I am sticking with my prediction. You claimed he will finish the year at .240, I don't think he will. Basically you're up right now because you said .240 and I said .260, but I still believe he will pull it out. I think runners are not geting on when he does hit the HR though, and that hurt his overall numbers.


And he won't crack top 50 again in standard 5x5 leagues, thus making him overvalued on draft day.
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Postby Yoda » Tue Jun 06, 2006 9:21 am

wrveres wrote:this thread is an exact copy of the "What to do with Adam Dunn" thread from 2005, 2004 and 2003 ....

the complaints are all the same

* His BA sucks
* His only hits solo HR
* His RBI Production is pathetic

and then there are always the guys the claim ..

* His is starting to turn it around
* His BB's don't hurt you
* His BA will end up around .250-.260
* That team scores so many runs, he can't help but get more RBI's.
* He steals bases, what 1B steals bases?


But it never changes.
It kind of cracks me up, all of the people with "hope" for Adam Dunn.

Every year, its the same thing.. :-D :-D


Yep, he is essentially a 3 category player. One day he might hit for a better AVG but until he makes better contact, it won't happen.
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Postby tol1l1yboy » Tue Jun 06, 2006 11:40 am

Id stick with Dunn. I have him and in my league he doesnt hurt as much b/c we use Total Bases plus walks so he is a 4 category stud rather than just a 2 or 3 category guy.

His average will come around to right around .250 probably. He actually had his average up about .20 points in the last couple of weeks before the current 0 for 8. I think he hits close to 50 home runs this year and he will still drive in more than 100 and score more than that as well.

Why anyone would hate that is mind boggling to this Dunn owner. But if you drafted him thinking he was going to hit .275 then I can understand why you are upset...but shame on you for thinking that!
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Postby pibb55 » Tue Jun 06, 2006 12:05 pm

Why are people surprised at Dunn? His numbers are not far off what his projections were, plus according to the numbers, he's getting unlucky so far. His April and May HR numbers were amazing. 9 in May and 8 in April. In 05 he had 11 HRs in July and in 04 he had 11 HRs in June and August so hes capable of huge months.


Heres what I'm expecting him to end up around:

.251 112 R 45 HR 106 RBI ;-D
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Tue Jun 06, 2006 1:15 pm

Apollo wrote:I love the party analogy. :)

You know what? Last year Dunn hit 20 homers with the bases empty. He hit 20 homers with runners on. That's better than average. He hit .249 with the bases empty. He hit .248 with RISP. That's pretty telling, eh?

He's not off to a great RISP start this year, but c'mon people. It's chance.


Yep, he doesn't hit well with RISP because he doesn't EVER hit well. He hits a normal number of hr's with people on base but it seems like he doesn't because you don't see a lot of rbi's from him. It's not because he doesn't hit home runs with people on base...it's because he rarely gets hits with people on base period.

His average is and always will be terrible unless he changes his approach at the plate or hits a huge string of luck. And even then there's only so much that luck can do for him. He strikes out ONE THIRD OF HIS AT BATS! This year is nothing new - he's always done this.

On the other hand his hr/ab% is UP this year from the 7's over the last couple of years to the high 8's (around 8.8% to date). His walk per plate appearance is up from the 17-18% range into the 19% range. Adam Dunn is improving his plate discipline and his power.

So basically it boils down to this - Adam Dunn is Adam Dunn. There's some people like him but no one that takes it to the level he does. You either like the r/hr combo enough to live with the terrible average and the decent (but not awesome) rbi's or you don't. He's unique enough as a player that there can be some interesting strategies related to him - especially in h2h (stacking up on high average guys to offset him, punting average, etc). His dual-eligibillity even makes it more interesting. He's just one of those guys that makes fantasy baseball interesting. :D
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Postby Laean » Tue Jun 06, 2006 1:53 pm

i play in an ops bb and total bases league so i like him a lot (we also use hits though, so that hurts).

to that one poster who said .250 is high for dunn, why? hasn't he hit higher than that before? i mean i don't know if he will, nor do i care (since i play in ops instead of avg league), but why can't he?

to that one poster who said you need two high avg guys to balance out dunn's one low avg, that's exaggerating. someone like ichiro or damon or sizemore will give you 600+ at bats, while dunn walks 110+ and gives you about 500 at bats.

as for the original poster, the same thing had been said about bonds a few years ago when he was destroying the league. since he has no protection and is being intentionally walked all the time anyway, just put him in at lead off where there's zero outs on the board instead of at 3rd/4th. that way, he'll either hit a bomb, or walk with zero outs nearly guaranteeing a run right in the start of the game. anyway, not saying dunn is anything near what bonds was back then, just thought it was interesting. they never did that with bonds though.

as for dunn, i think he should bat 2nd. basically the same idea as him batting lead off, but not as extreme i guess.
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Postby Apollo » Tue Jun 06, 2006 2:18 pm

The Loveable Losers wrote:Yep, he doesn't hit well with RISP because he doesn't EVER hit well. He hits a normal number of hr's with people on base but it seems like he doesn't because you don't see a lot of rbi's from him. It's not because he doesn't hit home runs with people on base...it's because he rarely gets hits with people on base period.

...

So basically it boils down to this - Adam Dunn is Adam Dunn. There's some people like him but no one that takes it to the level he does. You either like the r/hr combo enough to live with the terrible average and the decent (but not awesome) rbi's or you don't. He's unique enough as a player that there can be some interesting strategies related to him - especially in h2h (stacking up on high average guys to offset him, punting average, etc). His dual-eligibillity even makes it more interesting. He's just one of those guys that makes fantasy baseball interesting. :D


Well said. :)
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Postby KolbSaves » Tue Jun 06, 2006 2:25 pm

Dunn's going to be huge the rest of the season, mark my words. I'd expect a .280 batting average the rest of the way, too. His line drive rate is up from the last two years and his batting average on balls in play is way way down. That means he's hitting the ball better than ever and getting more unlucky than ever. I'm not saying he'll be Albert Pujols, but I expect him to be a top 30 hitter for the rest of the season in a mixed league.
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Tue Jun 06, 2006 2:30 pm

Laean wrote:to that one poster who said .250 is high for dunn, why? hasn't he hit higher than that before? i mean i don't know if he will, nor do i care (since i play in ops instead of avg league), but why can't he?


I wasn't the poster that said that but I'll field it.

Just plugged his numbers from THT's player page into a formula to predict expected BABIP (batting average on balls in play) and came out around .275 or so. His BABIP over the last few years is around .285 or so which is fairly typical for that formula as it tends to undershoot on guys and I question the numbers I get from it but I throw it in there to show his past performance is in the ball park with expectations.

So let's say we expect a .285 BABIP from Dunn. It's a bit generous but reasonable. He strikes out 1/3 of his at bats, the walks are irrelevant here since we're discussing batting average and he homers in about 8.5% of his at bats. That means over 200 at bats we're going to see about 67 k's and 17 home runs. That only leaves 116 balls in play. A .285 BABIP would see 33 of those fall for hits which would give him 50 total hits for a .250 batting average. And the thing is that because he puts so few balls into play he can only get so lucky. In 2004 he had a .321 BABIP - well over the expected .285 - but it only brought his average up to .266. Even at Ichiro levels of BABIP (around .350) Dunn would only get 41 hits in play for 58 total hits in 200 at bats - a batting average of .290 which is great by Dunn standards. But when you consider he has to hit a whopping .350 on balls in play just to hit .290 then you start to realize how futile it is to hope for a high average out of Dunn.
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Postby KolbSaves » Tue Jun 06, 2006 2:36 pm

The Loveable Losers wrote:
Laean wrote:to that one poster who said .250 is high for dunn, why? hasn't he hit higher than that before? i mean i don't know if he will, nor do i care (since i play in ops instead of avg league), but why can't he?


I wasn't the poster that said that but I'll field it.

Just plugged his numbers from THT's player page into a formula to predict expected BABIP (batting average on balls in play) and came out around .275 or so.


Why not just use the babip that's on the page instead of calculating it yourself? It says .250 so I'm not sure where the discrepency lies.
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