What I do see is Young is ranked 8 in MLB in WHIP behind. P. Martinez 0.81, M Mussina, 0.96, J Contreras 0.98, R Halladay 0.99, J Schmidt
1.03 J Santana 1.04, B Webb, 1.05 C Schilling, 1.08, C Young 1.08. Not bad if you ask me.
Second, his ranked 23 in ERA 3.39, his not even in the top 100 in hits allowed at (55) or runs allowed (28).
I am not a C Young fan but, I don't think his getting the respect he is due. If he can turn it around with the HR's he will be solid for the remainding of the season.
Yeah! Young is looking like one of my better picks this year.
I notice that many of the knocks on him sound a lot like the knocks on Randy Johnson early in his career. Now, Young developing into RJ is a stretch, but if he can be half that good, he's a good guy to have on your roster!
davidmarver wrote:He's been changing speeds real well and spotting his pitches while he's been doing so; that's going to result in a lot of popups.
However, Bay's triple and flyout were both dangerously close to homeruns, so take Young's good outings with a grain of salt.
Young's k/bb/hr numbers suggest an era around 4.71 and a whip around 1.399. He's been lucky so far to post the numbers that he's posted. I don't think he's as bad of a pitcher in the k/bb/hr areas as he's shown so far this year but he's certainly not been good so far...his k/9 is down around 7 which is good but not great. His k/bb is around 2 which again is decent but nothing to write home about. And his hr/9 is a terrible 1.5'ish.
On the bizarre is his home/away splits. He's a freakin' fly ball pitcher in PETCO and yet the numbers don't reflect that:
So what we have is a guy that's pitching great in Petco other than giving up a ton of home runs and who pitches like a #4 or #5 pitcher on the road except that he manages to keep the ball in the park and get insanely lucky with his results. All of this adds up to a your guess is as good as mine situation about where things go from here. One thing is certain though - with a 27.9% ground ball percentage Young is going to give up a LOT of home runs.
very good analysis. i was going to mention his ironic home/away splits as well, but you beat me to it.
davidmarver wrote:He's been changing speeds real well and spotting his pitches while he's been doing so; that's going to result in a lot of popups.
However, Bay's triple and flyout were both dangerously close to homeruns, so take Young's good outings with a grain of salt.
Young's k/bb/hr numbers suggest an era around 4.71 and a whip around 1.399. He's been lucky so far to post the numbers that he's posted. I don't think he's as bad of a pitcher in the k/bb/hr areas as he's shown so far this year but he's certainly not been good so far...his k/9 is down around 7 which is good but not great. His k/bb is around 2 which again is decent but nothing to write home about. And his hr/9 is a terrible 1.5'ish.
On the bizarre is his home/away splits. He's a freakin' fly ball pitcher in PETCO and yet the numbers don't reflect that:
So what we have is a guy that's pitching great in Petco other than giving up a ton of home runs and who pitches like a #4 or #5 pitcher on the road except that he manages to keep the ball in the park and get insanely lucky with his results. All of this adds up to a your guess is as good as mine situation about where things go from here. One thing is certain though - with a 27.9% ground ball percentage Young is going to give up a LOT of home runs.
My guess is that the weird splits are just the result of a small sample size, and we really shouldn't try to read too much into it. I agree that there is concern with the 27.9% ground ball as well as a BABIP of .217. This might be a good sell-high time on Young.
Is there anything fluffier than a cloud? If there is, I don't want to know about it.
WittyC wrote:My guess is that the weird splits are just the result of a small sample size, and we really shouldn't try to read too much into it. I agree that there is concern with the 27.9% ground ball as well as a BABIP of .217. This might be a good sell-high time on Young.
There's no question it's sample size that's causing the splits and maybe trying too hard at home, etc. All things though that aren't going to stay that way long-term.
Whether he's a sell high guy or not depends on whether you think his k/9 and bb/9 will go back to where they were last year (or even get a little bit better). His gb% may creep up a little bit but he really is that extreme of a fly ball pitcher. He can get away with that in the NL and especially in Petco if he puts up last year's numbers or better in k/9 and bb/9. I think he can do that so I'm not quite ready to sell high on him unless I'm getting the value I think he can put up (8-9 k/9 with a high 3's era and a whip around 1.20). He's definitely not THIS good though.
I think it is somewhat difficult to sell high on C. Young right now. For the same reason that this thread is garnering so much response, owners are still unsure of giving up too much for him.
Sure some owners out there will really like the guy and might offer decent value. But on the whole, I doubt you can really sell high on him until the all-star break comes and he's being mentioned and talked about as having a great first half.
Besides, what is Young's value in fantasy? We know he isn't elite. Does he make the top 25 or is he in the 20-30 best SP's that show great games mixed in with a few bad outings? Top 50?
In a 12+ team league he is most likely a very solid #3 SP but I doubt you get that kind of value if you trade him. Smaller leagues diminish his trade value.
I think best case scenario, he gets his K/9 up to 8 and becomes a lower end #2 fantasy SP. more than likely he will continue to do what he has been doing and will just give you solid numbers for the rest of the season. I see no reason to look at his fly ball % and get worried, he has always been a fly ball pitcher. If anything, he's gaining more confidence to continue to "pitch" that way and use every inch of the park to get outs. He's not too worried about striking everyone and letting them hit it...and sometimes they will hit it over the wall. I see 10 of 12 quality starts pitching that way and I say it works for him.
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by The Big Stick » Mon Jun 05, 2006 2:34 pm 
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