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Who are some players who have crazy splits?

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Postby mrider » Tue Jun 20, 2006 9:01 am

Amazing Oopah wrote:Geoff Jenkins:

career Pre ASB: .809 OPS
career Post ASB: .913 OPS

A 100 points difference in OPS 8-o


Yeh he always heats up after the ASB I will snag him during the break. Thats rediculous though 100 points I wouldn't think it would be that drastic.
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Tue Jun 20, 2006 10:57 am

DeadWinterDay wrote:Doesn't get much more crazy than AARON HARANG.


7 starts in each category.


AWAY: 1.86 ERA
HOME: 6.31 ERA


AWAY: 1 HR allowed
HOME: 9 HR allowed!


Great American is a TERRIBLE park in which to pitch if you are a fly ball pitcher because it yields so many home runs. In fact according to Rotowire, "Cincinnati - Played as the best NL park in yielding homers in 2005". That's right...better than Colorado...better than Arizona. Great American - and not Coors Field - was the Coors Field of the NL in 2005. Now it is slightly run neutral (in fact it suppressed run scoring in 2003-2004 and only reversed that trend to go to slightly good for scoring runs in 2005) but the home runs come more easily there than in any other NL park.

So what about Harang? His last 3 years ground ball percentages are 42.2%, 39.1% and 38.6% so far this year. So basically Aaron Harang is a fairly extreme fly ball pitcher pitching in an extreme home run ball park. That's not a good combination.

His home/road splits tell the entire story when you examine the component numbers. At home he's posted a 10.13 k/9 and a 2.44 bb/9 - outstanding numbers! On the road he's posted an 8.38 k/9 and a 2.23 bb/9 - not quite as good but still outstanding. However...and this is where it becomes crystal clear what's going on here...he's posted a hr/9 of 1.69 at home versus 0.19 on the road!!! That's the entire difference for Aaron Harang. He doesn't let Great American Ballpark affect his pitching...in fact he's stepped it up to a new level at home this year. But the ballpark will not be denied and 9 of those long fly balls that fly ball pitchers are wont to give up have found the bleachers (or the river !+) ) when he's pitched at home. Only 1 has made it out on the road.

Harang would be an outstanding start in one of two situations:
1) He's starting in a home run neutral to home run suppressing park. I wouldn't just avoid home starts but also avoid Coors and Arizona for example.
2) He's facing a team that has very poor home run hitters in general (even at home). Obviously even Great American Ballpark isn't going to turn Kenny Lofton into a home run hitter. The Hardball Times has hr/f ratios on their player stats page...if the team Harang is facing sports most of their players in single digits for that statistic you can probably even start Harang at home. If you see a bunch of guys in the 14-15%+ range you may want to rethink even starting him on the road.
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Postby Amazing Oopah » Wed Jun 21, 2006 12:57 am

mrider wrote:
Amazing Oopah wrote:Geoff Jenkins:

career Pre ASB: .809 OPS
career Post ASB: .913 OPS

A 100 points difference in OPS 8-o


Yeh he always heats up after the ASB I will snag him during the break. Thats rediculous though 100 points I wouldn't think it would be that drastic.


Indeed. This stat is the reason why I'm hanging onto him even though he has been awful recently (He has picked it up a bit the last few games though).

Another guy with good post ASB OPS is Austin Kearns:

career pre ASB: .798
career post ASB: .878

A very nice 80 point increase. Not as big as Jenkins' but still quite good if you can get him for a low price.
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Postby tomdoyle3 » Wed Jun 21, 2006 8:57 am

The Loveable Losers wrote:
DeadWinterDay wrote:Doesn't get much more crazy than AARON HARANG.


7 starts in each category.


AWAY: 1.86 ERA
HOME: 6.31 ERA


AWAY: 1 HR allowed
HOME: 9 HR allowed!


Great American is a TERRIBLE park in which to pitch if you are a fly ball pitcher because it yields so many home runs. In fact according to Rotowire, "Cincinnati - Played as the best NL park in yielding homers in 2005". That's right...better than Colorado...better than Arizona. Great American - and not Coors Field - was the Coors Field of the NL in 2005. Now it is slightly run neutral (in fact it suppressed run scoring in 2003-2004 and only reversed that trend to go to slightly good for scoring runs in 2005) but the home runs come more easily there than in any other NL park.

So what about Harang? His last 3 years ground ball percentages are 42.2%, 39.1% and 38.6% so far this year. So basically Aaron Harang is a fairly extreme fly ball pitcher pitching in an extreme home run ball park. That's not a good combination.

His home/road splits tell the entire story when you examine the component numbers. At home he's posted a 10.13 k/9 and a 2.44 bb/9 - outstanding numbers! On the road he's posted an 8.38 k/9 and a 2.23 bb/9 - not quite as good but still outstanding. However...and this is where it becomes crystal clear what's going on here...he's posted a hr/9 of 1.69 at home versus 0.19 on the road!!! That's the entire difference for Aaron Harang. He doesn't let Great American Ballpark affect his pitching...in fact he's stepped it up to a new level at home this year. But the ballpark will not be denied and 9 of those long fly balls that fly ball pitchers are wont to give up have found the bleachers (or the river !+) ) when he's pitched at home. Only 1 has made it out on the road.

Harang would be an outstanding start in one of two situations:
1) He's starting in a home run neutral to home run suppressing park. I wouldn't just avoid home starts but also avoid Coors and Arizona for example.
2) He's facing a team that has very poor home run hitters in general (even at home). Obviously even Great American Ballpark isn't going to turn Kenny Lofton into a home run hitter. The Hardball Times has hr/f ratios on their player stats page...if the team Harang is facing sports most of their players in single digits for that statistic you can probably even start Harang at home. If you see a bunch of guys in the 14-15%+ range you may want to rethink even starting him on the road.


The thing is, I just don't see Aaron Harang continuing to post a 1.86 era on the road. Even with that low of a road era, he still has an overall era of almost 4. Some of those fly-balls on the road are going to start going over the fence, he is getting lucky right now, and his road era is going to go up to atleast 3.5, which is going to bring his overall era up to about 5! I think he is a good sell-high, or you could just do what Loveable Losers said and start him in favorable ballparks or against favorable lineups. ;-D
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Wed Jun 21, 2006 10:10 am

tomdoyle3 wrote:The thing is, I just don't see Aaron Harang continuing to post a 1.86 era on the road. Even with that low of a road era, he still has an overall era of almost 4. Some of those fly-balls on the road are going to start going over the fence, he is getting lucky right now, and his road era is going to go up to atleast 3.5, which is going to bring his overall era up to about 5! I think he is a good sell-high, or you could just do what Loveable Losers said and start him in favorable ballparks or against favorable lineups. ;-D


Yeah, if you can get something for him I'd do it. I took the gamble and traded him with an extra low-tier closer to get Sheets.

But he can be useful if you stick with the away/favorable starts. Just not as good as he's looked.
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Postby reiser » Sun Jun 25, 2006 12:23 pm

I love splits. Nomar has a HUGE home and Away split (.423 at home).
most of the twins and the red sox are better at home.

the angels are bad pitching and hitting at home, not that they are so great on the road.
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