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Concern for Bobby Abreu

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Concern for Bobby Abreu

Postby Slow Pitch » Fri Jun 02, 2006 2:53 pm

Please fantasy guru genius with all BABIP & flyball per hr % stuff....can you break down what is going on with Bobby A?
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Postby quitesanemax » Fri Jun 02, 2006 3:11 pm

Abreu is not doing all that bad... say as bad as Teix is now. Abreu is doing okay. He is just in a bit of a slump as of lately. Players go into slumps, then they get hot. Thats the way it goes.

Runs: Way ahead of last year's pace - on pace for 140
Hits: Just behind last year's pace - on pace for 163.
HRs: Right on pace with last year - on pace for 24
RBIs: Way ahead of last year's pace - on pace for 142
SBs: Just behind last year's pace - on pace for 27
Average: Just behind pace at .278, but way ahead of pace in OBP with .447. That would probably be because pitchers are being extra careful with him.
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Postby fbc_fan » Fri Jun 02, 2006 3:15 pm

i really don't think anything is up with bobby, he's just more valuable in real baseball terms than fantasy baseball terms. now that's not to say that he is not a stud, because he is.

anyways, per your request here are his numbers from the last few years:

P/PA
06- 4.5
05- 4.4
04- 4.3

BABIP
06- .320
05- .335
04- .334

GB%
06- 45.6
05- 47.0
04- 42.0

HR/F
06- 18.4%
05- 16.0%
04- 15.6%

LD%
06- 27.2
05- 24.1
04- 20.9

the first thing i noticed is that his p/pa is up slightly, but he also leads the major leagues in walks this year, so that may be cutting into his production. however, it is also nice because it means he is in a position to pad his R's. also, if second is open when he walks, it also contributes to his chances of stealing a base.

his babip is a bit low this year, compared to his career norms, so that should rise and in turn bring his average up. his line drive percentage is also up again for the third straight year, which is good news since line drives have the highest chance of falling in for a hit, so what we may be seeing in his babip is that he is getting more than his fair share of line drives caught, instead of having them become hits. his gb% is also higher than it was in 04 for the second straight year, which leads me to believe this is the cause for his somewhat low hr totals, though he has never hit more than 31hrs in a year, so it does not seem that unusual to me.

all things being equal, don't really think that there is anything wrong with him, he's been playing well. i believe he's on pace for something like 120/21/120/24, thats pretty darn good in fantasy terms. ;-D
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Postby hookem2003 » Fri Jun 02, 2006 5:04 pm

If I get the numbers QSM is projecting, I'm flipping thrilled.
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Postby josebach » Fri Jun 02, 2006 7:08 pm

quitesanemax wrote:Abreu is not doing all that bad... say as bad as Teix is now. Abreu is doing okay. He is just in a bit of a slump as of lately. Players go into slumps, then they get hot. Thats the way it goes.

Runs: Way ahead of last year's pace - on pace for 140
Hits: Just behind last year's pace - on pace for 163.
HRs: Right on pace with last year - on pace for 24
RBIs: Way ahead of last year's pace - on pace for 142
SBs: Just behind last year's pace - on pace for 27
Average: Just behind pace at .278, but way ahead of pace in OBP with .447. That would probably be because pitchers are being extra careful with him.


Where did you get these numbers from?

We're into June which means the season is 1/3 of the way over.
Runs: 41x3 = 123
Hits: 47x3 = 141
HRs: 7x3 = 21
RBIs: 41x3 = 123
SBs: 8x3 = 24

Still great numbers! Remember, Abre goes on tears where he'll be the number 1 player for a month. He hasn't had any tears yet, but when he does, he'll be ranked right up there with the best of them.
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Postby quitesanemax » Fri Jun 02, 2006 10:00 pm

I went by the number of at bats, assuming he would get the same number of at bats this year as last year. He's had 169 at bats this year. He had 588 last year. I took each figure and divided it by 169, then multiplied it by 588. Since 2000, he has basically been in that range, as far as at bats go.

Hits: 41/169*588 = 140. etc...

Now that I think of it, there was talk of him getting a few extra days this year to make sure he doesn't wear down too soon. So he won't get quite that many at bats. It will probably be around 550 or 560 at bats, which would leave his projected runs in the 130's.

By the way, I think he did go on one of his tears early in May... but I'm sure he has a few more in him this year.

One thing that I am concerned about is that he tends to do better at the beginning of the year... but thats why they are giving him days off every once in a while. Hopefully he will finish the year a little stronger than usual.
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Postby teddy ballgame » Fri Jun 02, 2006 10:09 pm

Well he's only about 20 AB's behind his pace of last year, so he could wind up with a similar amount of AB's.

But also don't forget that he's been walkin a lot, which takes away from his AB's.
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Postby quitesanemax » Fri Jun 02, 2006 10:14 pm

Good point, Teddy. I didn't even think of that.
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