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How many good years does Manny have left?

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How many good years does Manny have left?

Postby GAC8666 » Thu Jun 01, 2006 8:08 pm

How many good years does Manny have left?
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Postby DevilDriver » Thu Jun 01, 2006 8:25 pm

hard to say...a couple more elite years and then a decline
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Re: How many good years does Manny have left?

Postby bceagles04 » Thu Jun 01, 2006 8:42 pm

GAC8666 wrote:How many good years does Manny have left?


2-3 at the top of his game and then 2-3 where he will still be very productice but not elite...then a steeper decline.
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Re: How many good years does Manny have left?

Postby j24jags » Thu Jun 01, 2006 9:03 pm

bceagles04 wrote:
GAC8666 wrote:How many good years does Manny have left?


2-3 at the top of his game and then 2-3 where he will still be very productice but not elite...then a steeper decline.

ditto ;-D
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Postby johnsamo » Thu Jun 01, 2006 9:12 pm

Looking at his career #s, they're remarkably consistant. He got good in 1995 and has been pretty consistent every year with no drop off whatsoever yet...

How quick a drop off sort of depends on what factors make them so good. A guy who's #s are dependent on some great physical skills, once those skills go, they can drop fast, but a guy who's more of a thinker type player tends to decline slower.

The quick decliners are usually the free swingers who don't walk much. I would say that when Vlad Guerrero loses a bit of his bat speed, he'll decline fast because he has no plate discipline.

Guys like Tony Gwynn or Jeter can play a long time because they're stats come more from their knowing how to hit.

The thing is, Mannny is both a great athlete, and a great thinking hitter, so the drop off will probably be slower and more gradual and even when he's no longer got his great bat speed, he could (if he wants to hang around) have some good years in him, just not with the awesome power he has now. His avg. and. obp. might even go up a bit if he stopped swinging for the fences as much. Odds are though, he's too proud a guy to hang around once he's not one of the top hitters in the league..

But he's got the smarts to be a Chili Davis like DH for a lot more years even after he loses his athleticism if he wants to. He'd still be a tough out.
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Postby WittyC » Thu Jun 01, 2006 11:16 pm

I think Manny will be retired in three years. Hasn't he even talked about it recently? He just always struck me as the talented but disinterested player. He seems like he's just out there because it's his job, but he can't wait to home, toke his bong and watch a few episodes of Spongebob. :*)
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