by gostanford07 » Thu Jun 01, 2006 1:30 am
Although he is clearly one of the hottest hitters in the game right now, there are a few things that worry me. Last year, in 398 PA, he had a 22.6 LD% and a .293 BA/BIP that translated in a .268 average. This year, through 190 PA, he has an 18.1 LD% but a .326 BA/BIP that translates into a .303 average. With a lower line drive percentage, but a higher avg on balls in play, he appears to be getting a little lucky so far this year. Also, his HR/FO ratio is at 13.7%, whereas the league average is around 11%.
Plus, when Bay & Co. come back from the other universe that they are playing in right now, the Bucs are bound to put up runs at a much slower pace. Even with a promotion in the lineup, I think Castillo's #'s will not quite be as high as people expect. Still respectable for a 2B, but far from Cantu in 05 as the previous thread suggests IMO.