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Postby The Loveable Losers » Wed May 31, 2006 7:20 pm

The_Met_Threat wrote:
RynMan wrote:Can anyone explain to me why batting average on balls into play is relevant for a hitter?


I doubt that a hitter has that much control so that he can aim a hit inbetween the second basemen and the Center fielder almost every time. Im sure they can aim their hits but its very hard to pinpoint exactly where they want the ball to go, so a high BABIP would lead to the assumption that alot of his hit balls have fallen luckily. It really isn't that much of an indicator for hitters tho.


What he said...all a hitter can do is hit the ball with a certain amount of authority in a certain general direction - beyond that it's in the hands of luck/defense/other things outside the batter's control as to whether it falls for a hit or not. That's why you would consider a hitter varying wildly from their career norms in BABIP to either be lucky or unlucky (depending on which direction they're varying).
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Postby PinotResa » Wed May 31, 2006 7:59 pm

The Loveable Losers wrote:
The_Met_Threat wrote:
RynMan wrote:Can anyone explain to me why batting average on balls into play is relevant for a hitter?


I doubt that a hitter has that much control so that he can aim a hit inbetween the second basemen and the Center fielder almost every time. Im sure they can aim their hits but its very hard to pinpoint exactly where they want the ball to go, so a high BABIP would lead to the assumption that alot of his hit balls have fallen luckily. It really isn't that much of an indicator for hitters tho.


What he said...all a hitter can do is hit the ball with a certain amount of authority in a certain general direction - beyond that it's in the hands of luck/defense/other things outside the batter's control as to whether it falls for a hit or not. That's why you would consider a hitter varying wildly from their career norms in BABIP to either be lucky or unlucky (depending on which direction they're varying).


This discussion is so interesting from a historical viewpoint from back when hitters main goal was to be able to control the direction of a hit ball. :*) :-b ;-D
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Wed May 31, 2006 8:09 pm

You can certainly control it somewhat but you're still going to have about 21% of your fly balls, 27'ish% of your ground balls and 74'ish% of your line drives fall in for hits. That can vary a bit on a hitter by hitter basis (especially the ground ball rates for very fast players) but tends to not vary by that much.
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Postby PinotResa » Wed May 31, 2006 8:12 pm

The Loveable Losers wrote:You can certainly control it somewhat but you're still going to have about 21% of your fly balls, 27'ish% of your ground balls and 74'ish% of your line drives fall in for hits. That can vary a bit on a hitter by hitter basis (especially the ground ball rates for very fast players) but tends to not vary by that much.


You got data from 1871-1915 on that ;-)
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Wed May 31, 2006 8:19 pm

PinotResa wrote:
The Loveable Losers wrote:You can certainly control it somewhat but you're still going to have about 21% of your fly balls, 27'ish% of your ground balls and 74'ish% of your line drives fall in for hits. That can vary a bit on a hitter by hitter basis (especially the ground ball rates for very fast players) but tends to not vary by that much.


You got data from 1871-1915 on that ;-)


Nope and if I had to hazard a guess I would say that the ratios of those numbers (21 to 27 to 74 percent) would end up pretty close but all of them would be higher. I think the defense guys face today is a lot better than the average defense from that era...at least that is what Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract leads me to believe...for a long time they didnt even have gloves. :)
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Postby RynMan » Wed May 31, 2006 8:40 pm

BABIP = (hits-HR)/AB's

Right?

So how is this much better at indicating anything more relevant than what batting average tells you?
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Wed May 31, 2006 8:42 pm

RynMan wrote:BABIP = (hits-HR)/AB's

Right?

So how is this much better at indicating anything more relevant than what batting average tells you?


Close...it's this:
BABIP=(Hits - HR) / (AB - HR - K)

What it tells you is what percentage of the balls put into play are falling for hits. That's very significant for pitchers and somewhat significant for hitters (as hitters typically stay fairly consistant here unless they make large changes to their approach at the plate).
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Postby RynMan » Wed May 31, 2006 9:00 pm

The Loveable Losers wrote:
RynMan wrote:BABIP = (hits-HR)/AB's

Right?

So how is this much better at indicating anything more relevant than what batting average tells you?


Close...it's this:
BABIP=(Hits - HR) / (AB - HR - K)


Thanks for the info LL.

Why is HR and K's subtracted from AB?
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Wed May 31, 2006 9:03 pm

RynMan wrote:
The Loveable Losers wrote:
RynMan wrote:BABIP = (hits-HR)/AB's

Right?

So how is this much better at indicating anything more relevant than what batting average tells you?


Close...it's this:
BABIP=(Hits - HR) / (AB - HR - K)


Thanks for the info LL.

Why is HR and K's subtracted from AB?


Because we're only measuring the hits in play out of the total balls in play. Neither home runs nor strike outs are in play so they get subtracted out.
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Postby hybrid » Wed May 31, 2006 9:04 pm

RynMan wrote:Thanks for the info LL.

Why is HR and K's subtracted from AB?


Well a strike out isn't put in play at all, so you can't count it. Also a HR isn't really put in play, as no one has a chance to field it so it doesn't count either.

edit: LL beat me ... shucks
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