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Concern for David Wright

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Concern for David Wright

Postby PinotResa » Wed May 31, 2006 1:04 am

Wright's predicative indicators show he is likely headed for a decline in his 5 x 5 stats. Is there reason for concern and if so, how far is his production likely to drop?

His GPA is .341

LD% currently is 5+% less than last year, but equal to 2004.

GB% has dropped at about the same rate HR/Flyball has, while IF Flyball rate has risen. So basically he's hitting more lazy fly balls.

BA/BIP is at .387, last season .343. Numbers closer to .343 or less are normal, .387 is far to high for end of season numbers.

His BA/RISP is .359.....298 and .281 previously. It likely will drop, along with his RBI rate. Batting 5th with little protection won't help, although Floyd has been heating up (big time).

Predicted stats according to THT

Code: Select all
PrAVE   PrISO     PrSLG    PrOBP   PrOPS      OPS   OPS-PrOPS
.280     .199     .479     .365     .845     .963     .119


Predicted BA of .280 compared to actual (.332) is a huge difference. IsoP net difference is -.23, SLG -.67, OBP -.33.

BB/PA is slighly lower than last year, BB/K the same.

SB total and rate inflated by weak catchers.


Every stat I find on him says he's playing over his head, is there really cause for concern and what action (or inaction) would you take based on that?
Last edited by PinotResa on Wed May 31, 2006 2:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby The_Met_Threat » Wed May 31, 2006 1:09 am

I only see that his line drive rate is at 5% less than last year...

Also if he is playing very well with declining stats this year, it could mean he is getting lucky, but in the case of a player with his skill i actually think all those stats will improve over the season.
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Postby hybrid » Wed May 31, 2006 6:06 am

I think your reading a bit to much into his less then 200 AB's so far this season.

Wright could hit above .320 the entire season, but it's more likely that he will come back around to his .300 range. Other then that I don't see anything that is so likely to come down by that much in his stats.

While his BA/RISP could come down, it could also stay up a good amount. It isn't that unlikely for a young player to have a spike in that area. Tex had one last year and you noted Wright improved by .020 last year so why not a small improvement again? Also he should always have a good amount of people on base w/ Beltran/Delgado in front of him ... Floyd was bound to heat up like he is now (he had even less protection last year lower in the order).

He actually had similiar GB/FB/LD (like you pointed out w/ LD) stats in his rookie season and his power numbers projected around the same area.

His SB total is likely to always come against weak catchers, he isn't a big time speedster. He picks his chances wisely and tries to get a good jump, simple as that.

Anyways I think a lot of these stats are predicated due to a lucky last month. He k'd more times then has before in any other month, yet still hit .343. Which is obviously a bit odd and would tend to make his numbers on the stats you listed a bit off beat. I look for him to make improvements and get better as most young hitters do with his type of talent.
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Postby bigh0rt » Wed May 31, 2006 12:30 pm

I think hybrid hit the nail on the head with a lot of things here, though some of those numbers are interesting.

I have trouble seeing him bat .280 his 3rd year in the league, after batting .293 and .306 the past two years, and improving. While I suppose .325 isn't out of the question, I would be surprised to see it remain that high. I think he'll settle in somewhere around .310 when all is said and done.

As for his BA/RISP, I think it's far too early in his career to assume it's going to drop to what's been the mean so far in his young career. I'd say it's just as likely to remain in the range that it's in than to drop back into the area we've seen the past two seasons. Let us not forget that Wright's only 23 years old, so this jump may be a result of his maturation and experience (that may be the Met fan in me talking, though).

With the Mets getting on base at the rate they are, I don't see much of a fall from Wright's RBI numbers... especially if Beltran continues to tear, and once Delgado bounces out of this slump (which is all but guaranteed).

As for his speed, I'm basically with hybrid there. He's not a base stealer, but he runs the bases well and chooses his spots to run. That's not likely to change.

All in all, I think he'll be one of the best fantasy 3B this season and beyond, both in standard 5x5 and otherwise. I can only hope that his owner in my league is worrying about him. :-D

Good work so far Pinot, on digging up some debatable info on players like Wright, and making us think a little bit. Keep it up, for sure. ;-D
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Postby acsguitar » Wed May 31, 2006 12:55 pm

I traded him away I hope you are Wright. hahah get it Wright?!
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Postby cordscords » Wed May 31, 2006 1:03 pm

I wouldnt worry. He's been a top prospect in the minors, performed well when called up, had a great first full year, and is off to another great start again.
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Postby PinotResa » Wed May 31, 2006 2:42 pm

Thanks for the quality comments guys.

acsguitar wrote:I traded him away I hope you are Wright. hahah get it Wright?!


bigh0rt wrote:Good work so far Pinot, on digging up some debatable info on players like Wright, and making us think a little bit. Keep it up, for sure. ;-D


I was giving serious consideration to trading Wright for a comparable player like Miguel Cabrera, however if you do similar analysis on him, you get about the same amount of controversial results. :-b

That leads me to believe Wright and Cabrera's predictive numbers are partially a result of their youth and development. Resting their value on skill level and actual results should be good enough, unless or until these predictors continue and start to show in the 5 x 5 results. Still, if I can get a guy like Cabrera, Ortiz, Hafner, Bay, Pedro ect.. in a deal, I will be more open to selling Wright.

As of Monday Wright ranked 43rd overall and 29th among hitters, Cabrera was at 12th and 8th.
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Wed May 31, 2006 4:01 pm

For what it's worth THT had an article where they posted a predictor for expected BABIP. Wright's is in the .260's. The article's an interesting read and while the formula is backed by significant statistical analysis I've found it to be not very accurate in practice but I figured I'd throw that stat in to the mix. It would certainly give cause for concern though if he's hitting over .370 on balls in play when he should be in the .260's.

I'd give more weight to his career BABIP though rather than what that formula says...even then he'd be in for a dropoff in average.
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Postby RynMan » Wed May 31, 2006 6:49 pm

Can anyone explain to me why batting average on balls into play is relevant for a hitter?
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Postby The_Met_Threat » Wed May 31, 2006 6:52 pm

RynMan wrote:Can anyone explain to me why batting average on balls into play is relevant for a hitter?


I doubt that a hitter has that much control so that he can aim a hit inbetween the second basemen and the Center fielder almost every time. Im sure they can aim their hits but its very hard to pinpoint exactly where they want the ball to go, so a high BABIP would lead to the assumption that alot of his hit balls have fallen luckily. It really isn't that much of an indicator for hitters tho.
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