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Anthony Reyes =Lowe/Webb type?

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Anthony Reyes =Lowe/Webb type?

Postby Bosy Billups » Tue May 30, 2006 8:18 pm

Reyes is not a high K pitcher, but more of a groundball pitcher. Is this correct?

If so, what type of pitcher today does he have the Potential to become?
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Postby hybrid » Tue May 30, 2006 10:57 pm

The two you listed are pretty good sinker ball pitchers, so in that way Reyes isn't like them. His main pitches are a good FB and change up. I'm not going to go into comparison but he has a good chance to be a nice #3 type guy, though he would need to stay healthy.
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Postby Members Only Jackets » Wed May 31, 2006 3:28 am

hybrid wrote:The two you listed are pretty good sinker ball pitchers, so in that way Reyes isn't like them. His main pitches are a good FB and change up. I'm not going to go into comparison but he has a good chance to be a nice #3 type guy, though he would need to stay healthy.


#3? I got the impression (thru my readings and internet info) that Reyes has a chance to be a 1 or 2 Sp. Maybe i'm hoping for this.... :-D
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Postby hybrid » Wed May 31, 2006 5:31 am

He could possibly be a #2 if everything breaks great for him. I'm just not that big on him and think he is much more likely to be a middle of the rotation type guy. Very few pitching prospects have ace potential and he isn't one of them IMO.
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Postby J35J » Thu Jun 01, 2006 11:00 am

hybrid wrote:He could possibly be a #2 if everything breaks great for him. I'm just not that big on him and think he is much more likely to be a middle of the rotation type guy. Very few pitching prospects have ace potential and he isn't one of them IMO.



Agreed, not every pitching prospect is a 1 or a 2. Not every predicted 1 or 2 type pitching prospects ever turn out to be that. There isn't even 20 #1 pitchers in the majors this year, just because a pitcher is YOUR #1 pitcher doesn't mean he is a #1. There aren't many #1 pitchers out there so to expect a rookie to be that or turn into that is a mistake. I would say a #3 is about right for Reyes.

I will make a little chart of what I think 1 through 5 starters should be if put them in a category. Take this with a grain of salt as I did this in 3 minutes and didn't put a ton of thought into it. This could make for a nice discussion though........

#1 =
210+ IP a year
200+ SO a year
3.30 ERA or less a year
1.10 WHIP or less a year

#2 =
200+ IP
180+ SO
3.75 ERA
1.18 WHIP

#3
185+ IP
160+
4.00 ERA
1.25 WHIP

#4
180+
150+
4.25 ERA
1.35 WHIP

#5
175+
120+
4.50 ERA
1.45 WHIP

Anything worse is just taking up roster space IMO.


Anyway, doing this just made me want to think about it a little more to more accurately make each category. It would be fun to see what everyone else thinks each pitcher should be. ;-D

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Postby j24jags » Thu Jun 01, 2006 4:32 pm

J35J wrote:
hybrid wrote:He could possibly be a #2 if everything breaks great for him. I'm just not that big on him and think he is much more likely to be a middle of the rotation type guy. Very few pitching prospects have ace potential and he isn't one of them IMO.



Agreed, not every pitching prospect is a 1 or a 2. Not every predicted 1 or 2 type pitching prospects ever turn out to be that. There isn't even 20 #1 pitchers in the majors this year, just because a pitcher is YOUR #1 pitcher doesn't mean he is a #1. There aren't many #1 pitchers out there so to expect a rookie to be that or turn into that is a mistake. I would say a #3 is about right for Reyes.

I will make a little chart of what I think 1 through 5 starters should be if put them in a category. Take this with a grain of salt as I did this in 3 minutes and didn't put a ton of thought into it. This could make for a nice discussion though........

#1 =
210+ IP a year
200+ SO a year
3.30 ERA or less a year
1.10 WHIP or less a year

#2 =
200+ IP
180+ SO
3.75 ERA
1.18 WHIP

#3
185+ IP
160+
4.00 ERA
1.25 WHIP

#4
180+
150+
4.25 ERA
1.35 WHIP

#5
175+
120+
4.50 ERA
1.45 WHIP

Anything worse is just taking up roster space IMO.


Anyway, doing this just made me want to think about it a little more to more accurately make each category. It would be fun to see what everyone else thinks each pitcher should be. ;-D

Jason

great post
1 disagreement i have is that the standards you set are slightly high. Last year only 7 pitchers i think met your #2 starter qualifications, overall great estimates ;-D
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Postby brandnew » Thu Jun 01, 2006 10:41 pm

I actually disagree a bit. Mine are like:

1
220+ IP
200+ K
3.10 or less
1.15 or less

2
200+ IP
160+ K
3.50 or less
1.20 or less

3
185 IP
130 K
3.80 or less
1.30 or less

4
200 IP
120 K
4.10 or less
1.30 or less

5
200 IP
120 K
4.25 or less
1.30 or less
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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Fri Jun 02, 2006 4:00 pm

he is not at all like lowe/webb. as mentioned they throw sinkers (are ground ball pitchers) and anthony has been (at the request of the cardinals) struggling to incorporate a two seam sinking fastball into his arsenal. they are trying to turn him from a fly ball pitcher to a ground ball pitcher. reyes has impeccable control though (something like a 48-6 k/bb ratio so far this year in AAA). i am not sure who to compare him to. since he was a college teammate of mark prior sometimes people bring him up but i dont know how accurate that is.

his career minor league numbers are more than a k per inning. i'd expect it to drop when he pitches in the big leagues, particularly because dave duncan preaches the pitch to contact/induce grounders philosophy. although, if you got good stuff (like carpenter) you can maintain a decent k rate. he wont lead the league in k's but he should be above average in that regard.

i mostly read projections calling him a solid #2/top of the rotation type if he stays healthy, although no one really bothers to define their ranking system. you can expect better than average k's and whip. his era in the minors was higher than you would think of someone with a 1.09 whip. he gave up some homers and had some bad defense. if he can cut back on the homers by incorporating that sinking fastball/two seamer he should also have a good era. kid just needs to stay healthy. he's never had surgery but occasionally skips a start/spends 15 days on the DL.
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