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Postby Surfs up » Mon May 29, 2006 9:53 am

Would you trade Hillenbrand to get Sexson if you were in the need for Home runs?
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Postby OhMrScottyTrav06 » Mon May 29, 2006 11:53 am

Surfs up wrote:Would you trade Hillenbrand to get Sexson if you were in the need for Home runs?


Yes... as far as the rest of the season goes, Sexson's bound to hit for decent average to get it back up to .250 or so.
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Postby Surfs up » Mon May 29, 2006 5:36 pm

Anybody else think I should trade Hillenbrand for Sexson?
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Postby WittyC » Mon May 29, 2006 10:09 pm

Surfs up wrote:Anybody else think I should trade Hillenbrand for Sexson?


Not really the place for that (as I'm sure you know), but of course you trade Hillenbrand for Sexson.

TheYanks04 wrote:Maybe. Or maybe he is just in for a crummy season. It is not like it would be completely shocking to see him end up at 235 with 25 hrs and 80 rbis.


I would be pretty darn shocked if he ended up with those numbers this year. I'd say he's a lock to tack those numbers on to what he's already done, at the least.
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Postby klvrdude » Tue May 30, 2006 2:30 am

pibb55 wrote:Sexson, barring any hidden injuries, will turn it around....

Worst Case his numbers will look like this:
.250 85 R 30 HR 100 RBI

Best Case:
.265 95 R 35 HR 115 RBI

I think it'll end up somewhere in between:
.254 91 R 34 HR 106 RBI


I'm sorry to say it, but I think your "worst" case is really a best case. To make those #'s a reality he'll need to avg 16.5R/6.0HR/18.3RBI/.270 a month for the next 4 months.

Those #'s aren't out of his capability, b/c that is approx what he got over the last 4 mo of 2005, but he also didn't "slump" like this last year either.

He's a year older (31), on a lack luster team with no passion and possibly a year long nagging foot/heal injury.

Personally, I'm not in a position where I can wait for him to get hot. I'm going to test the "buy-low" market, b/c I don't think he's going to make huge strides this year.
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Postby Surfs up » Tue May 30, 2006 7:57 am

I'm sorry to say it, but I think your "worst" case is really a best case. To make those #'s a reality he'll need to avg 16.5R/6.0HR/18.3RBI/.270 a month for the next 4 months.

Those #'s aren't out of his capability, b/c that is approx what he got over the last 4 mo of 2005, but he also didn't "slump" like this last year either.

He's a year older (31), on a lack luster team with no passion and possibly a year long nagging foot/heal injury.

Personally, I'm not in a position where I can wait for him to get hot. I'm going to test the "buy-low" market, b/c I don't think he's going to make huge strides this year.




I'm with you Klvrdude Good call ;-D
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Postby pibb55 » Tue May 30, 2006 12:37 pm

klvrdude wrote:I'm sorry to say it, but I think your "worst" case is really a best case. To make those #'s a reality he'll need to avg 16.5R/6.0HR/18.3RBI/.270 a month for the next 4 months.

Those #'s aren't out of his capability, b/c that is approx what he got over the last 4 mo of 2005, but he also didn't "slump" like this last year either.

He's a year older (31), on a lack luster team with no passion and possibly a year long nagging foot/heal injury.

Personally, I'm not in a position where I can wait for him to get hot. I'm going to test the "buy-low" market, b/c I don't think he's going to make huge strides this year.



I wouldn't sell low on Sexson unless you truly think he's injured. He is currently getting unlucky and hasn't found his stroke yet. He has a career HR/AB of 15.15, this year its at 32.33, more than double his normal Home run rate. Also, his BA/BIP is at .268, an average hitter is around .300 at least, he is getting very unlucky and should bust out to his normal self with a 9 HR month soon.
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Postby klvrdude » Tue May 30, 2006 1:28 pm

pibb55 wrote:I wouldn't sell low on Sexson unless you truly think he's injured. He is currently getting unlucky and hasn't found his stroke yet. He has a career HR/AB of 15.15, this year its at 32.33, more than double his normal Home run rate. Also, his BA/BIP is at .268, an average hitter is around .300 at least, he is getting very unlucky and should bust out to his normal self with a 9 HR month soon.


I hear what you're saying, but I speculate (w/out looking at any #'s) that last year he had some protection in the M's lineup and this year, no one is hitting other then the hit king Ichiro.

At 31 it's very possible Sexson is on the decline with his physcial skills.

I'm not saying he's worthless, but maybe now is the time to sell him to take advantage of those who think they are getting a 'buy-low steal'?

Also, its a bit hard to take your opinion as objective with your avatar :-b
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Postby Mordraken » Tue May 30, 2006 5:43 pm

2 years ago I drafted Jason Giambi. After the first 3 months he had a .926 OPS with a .270 Average, 9 Homers (very low for him) & 20 runs / 24 RBIs in 37 games. He went on to finish the year with a .152 average, .505 OPS, 3 homers and 13/16 runs/RBIS in his final 48 games.

Last year I drafted Jim Thome. After 3 months he had a .676 OPS with 2 homers, 15 runs and 17 RBIs, and the second "half" of his season (only June) he improved to a .752 OPS with 5 homers, 11 runs and 13 RBIs in 26 games.

Looking at my wonderful pick this year, Sexson has a .640 OPS with 6 homers, 19 runs and 27 RBIs. Those are numbers right around where Thome was (but with a bit more power and RBIs).

I stuck with both Giambi and Thome for the entire year (it's a keeper league) and passed on them in their comeback year the following year. Based on my luck, you should drop them now and draft them next year.

However, based on Giambi & Thome's bad years, it is entirely possible for Sexson to suck all year long. If there was anyone in my league worth picking up, I'd make the move, but until he starts hitting better, he'll ride my bench and I'll field a team without a DH (his OBP and SLG hurts my team more than his 2-3 RBIs & Runs/week helps).

Batters seem to have a tendency to drop off the face of the earth very quickly... especially if they are my primary 1B.
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Postby WittyC » Wed May 31, 2006 12:18 am

Mordraken wrote:2 years ago I drafted Jason Giambi. After the first 3 months he had a .926 OPS with a .270 Average, 9 Homers (very low for him) & 20 runs / 24 RBIs in 37 games. He went on to finish the year with a .152 average, .505 OPS, 3 homers and 13/16 runs/RBIS in his final 48 games.

Last year I drafted Jim Thome. After 3 months he had a .676 OPS with 2 homers, 15 runs and 17 RBIs, and the second "half" of his season (only June) he improved to a .752 OPS with 5 homers, 11 runs and 13 RBIs in 26 games.

Looking at my wonderful pick this year, Sexson has a .640 OPS with 6 homers, 19 runs and 27 RBIs. Those are numbers right around where Thome was (but with a bit more power and RBIs).

I stuck with both Giambi and Thome for the entire year (it's a keeper league) and passed on them in their comeback year the following year. Based on my luck, you should drop them now and draft them next year.

However, based on Giambi & Thome's bad years, it is entirely possible for Sexson to suck all year long. If there was anyone in my league worth picking up, I'd make the move, but until he starts hitting better, he'll ride my bench and I'll field a team without a DH (his OBP and SLG hurts my team more than his 2-3 RBIs & Runs/week helps).

Batters seem to have a tendency to drop off the face of the earth very quickly... especially if they are my primary 1B.


The thing about Giambi '04 and Thome '05 is that they both spent significant time on the DL. Neither of them played more than 80 games!

Sexson has some kind of nagging foot injury, but it's nothing that should put him on the DL for an extended period of time. Basing future fantasy expectations of a guy on two guys who were on the DL is just a bad idea.
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