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So, seriously, Alex Rios ...

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Postby mweir145 » Sat Jun 03, 2006 1:30 am

J35J wrote:
PinotResa wrote:
TheRawDAWG wrote:I'd be more concerned with him not keeping up the power more so than the average. Like i said, he's always hit for a great average. He'll hit .335


That's quite a claim. I think he has an outside shot at it, but it's unlikely. Rios has shown he can hit for that type of average once before. In 2003 at AA New Haven, Rios hit .352 in 562 PA. That should be about equal to .333 in the majors.

In the other four years of equal playing time in the minors, Rios hit for far less, .293 career minor leauge aveage (including 2003). .273 combined average in first two season in MLB, .288 career.


If Rios ends up with a .315 avg for the season, which is probably the high end, then that means he will hit .285 - .290 the rest of the way. In other words, sell high if someone will take him thinking he will continue at the .350+ pace.

Jason

Exactly, that's why I don't really understand why some people think my projection for Rios' end of the year line is too conservative. He's just not going to keep this up.
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Postby TheRawDAWG » Sun Jun 04, 2006 3:34 pm

mweir145 wrote:
J35J wrote:
PinotResa wrote:
TheRawDAWG wrote:I'd be more concerned with him not keeping up the power more so than the average. Like i said, he's always hit for a great average. He'll hit .335


That's quite a claim. I think he has an outside shot at it, but it's unlikely. Rios has shown he can hit for that type of average once before. In 2003 at AA New Haven, Rios hit .352 in 562 PA. That should be about equal to .333 in the majors.

In the other four years of equal playing time in the minors, Rios hit for far less, .293 career minor leauge aveage (including 2003). .273 combined average in first two season in MLB, .288 career.


If Rios ends up with a .315 avg for the season, which is probably the high end, then that means he will hit .285 - .290 the rest of the way. In other words, sell high if someone will take him thinking he will continue at the .350+ pace.

Jason

Exactly, that's why I don't really understand why some people think my projection for Rios' end of the year line is too conservative. He's just not going to keep this up.



Since we started this thread his average has actually gone up.
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Postby mweir145 » Sun Jun 04, 2006 4:03 pm

TheRawDAWG wrote:
mweir145 wrote:
J35J wrote:
PinotResa wrote:
TheRawDAWG wrote:I'd be more concerned with him not keeping up the power more so than the average. Like i said, he's always hit for a great average. He'll hit .335


That's quite a claim. I think he has an outside shot at it, but it's unlikely. Rios has shown he can hit for that type of average once before. In 2003 at AA New Haven, Rios hit .352 in 562 PA. That should be about equal to .333 in the majors.

In the other four years of equal playing time in the minors, Rios hit for far less, .293 career minor leauge aveage (including 2003). .273 combined average in first two season in MLB, .288 career.


If Rios ends up with a .315 avg for the season, which is probably the high end, then that means he will hit .285 - .290 the rest of the way. In other words, sell high if someone will take him thinking he will continue at the .350+ pace.

Jason

Exactly, that's why I don't really understand why some people think my projection for Rios' end of the year line is too conservative. He's just not going to keep this up.



Since we started this thread his average has actually gone up.

When did June 4th suddenly become to end of the season without me realizing? :-?
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Postby duckbillgates » Mon Jun 12, 2006 9:22 pm

After a mini-slump, 3 homers and a steal in the past two games. Average still hovering around .350.
So I've seen the more reasonable projections, but what do you think his ceiling is? He's looking like about a fourth rounder so far.
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Postby dracovonborax » Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:57 pm

he's suppose to be cooling off.. i just sold him in a package deal and now i must watch him hurt me with nights like these... :~(
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Postby Jester » Mon Jun 12, 2006 11:04 pm

When you watch him hit his approach is incredible. I don't see him cooling off any time soon - he seems to have settled in to this groove nicely.

Hitting the ball hard...man I love line drive hitters.
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Postby acon44 » Tue Jun 13, 2006 12:04 am

do you guys think I should package Rios, Helton, and B.Webb for M.Young, Berkman, and Vazquez??? I love rios and Webb but they are both at what "seems" to be pretty high value.....i have BB and OPS also in my league so guys like Berkman are worth a lot, but Webb and Rios are sooo hard to deal when they are playing this well....Sell high or no?
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Postby jdsun1 » Tue Jun 13, 2006 12:15 am

acon44 wrote:do you guys think I should package Rios, Helton, and B.Webb for M.Young, Berkman, and Vazquez??? I love rios and Webb but they are both at what "seems" to be pretty high value.....i have BB and OPS also in my league so guys like Berkman are worth a lot, but Webb and Rios are sooo hard to deal when they are playing this well....Sell high or no?


Why dont you post this in the correct forum.

To all the haters out there. What about the two walks today. A little more sign of patience that he looked to have lost last week at the plate.
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Postby acon44 » Tue Jun 13, 2006 12:18 am

I did post in the right forum, Just thought I could get some more thoughts on Rios here since there is so much talk about him....people take forums way to seriously sometimes.
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Postby Ursa » Tue Jun 13, 2006 1:28 am

mweir145 wrote:This is my projection right now for his year end stats:

.315, 20 HR, 80 RBIs, 90 R, and about 15 SB. Still very good, but I'm just not sold on him yet.

So we're now just over a third of the way through the season and Rios is over .350, 14 HR, 48 RBI, 42 R and 8 SB. While I think your BA projection will be fairly close, and the SB figures won't be too far off, the only way the rest of your numbers will be even close is if he gets hurt. He'd have to have a slump of monumental proportions not to sail past 20 HRs and 80 RBIs.
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