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So, seriously, Alex Rios ...

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Postby J35J » Thu Jun 01, 2006 5:38 pm

TheRawDAWG wrote:You know what guys? Sometimes you little numbers and projections and saying a player is getting lucky just doesn't do it. Rios is killing the ball. Everytime he makes contact he drives the ball hard. He is in a zone and he's been there for 2 months. He was a great prospect now realizing his potential. His average is definately NOT lucky. He one a couple batting titles in the minors. And now he's added some pop because of a stance change and maturation. It happens ALL the time.



You are right. There are alot of people in here that WAY "over analyze" things!!!

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Postby The_Met_Threat » Thu Jun 01, 2006 5:45 pm

j24jags wrote:
mweir145 wrote:
TheRawDAWG wrote:
mweir145 wrote:
TheRawDAWG wrote:You know what guys? Sometimes you little numbers and projections and saying a player is getting lucky just doesn't do it. Rios is killing the ball. Everytime he makes contact he drives the ball hard. He is in a zone and he's been there for 2 months. He was a great prospect now realizing his potential. His average is definately NOT lucky. He one a couple batting titles in the minors. And now he's added some pop because of a stance change and maturation. It happens ALL the time.

I personally can't see him keeping this up. And even if he has changed for the better, again, the lack of walks will catch up to him. His average won't stay this high.


I'd be more concerned with him not keeping up the power more so than the average. Like i said, he's always hit for a great average. He'll hit .335

He hasn't always hit for a good average. Before this season he was hitting .273 in the major leagues, and in the minors .293 (boosted by one amazing year in double A, everything else was pretty lackluster).

This is my projection right now for his year end stats:

.315, 20 HR, 80 RBIs, 90 R, and about 15 SB. Still very good, but I'm just not sold on him yet.

Wow. He is on pace to soar past those


"On pace" what bs. Sure chris shelton was on pace for over 100 hr at the beginning of the season, Pujols is on pace for like 82, they wont hit these numbers. Just because Rios is hitting .350 1/3rd through the season doesnt mean hes gonna keep it up. He has nothing in his baseball career to indicate that, he was terrible last year. Just be happy with those numbers, but even i think they could be a little high, especially the .315 avg. I see him going through some big slumps the rest of the way.
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Postby TheRawDAWG » Thu Jun 01, 2006 6:27 pm

You'll be wrong. Like i said, he sees a ton of fast balls hitting in front of Wells and Glaus. And he's not getting lucky hitting bloopers and infeild hits. This guy is drving EVERYTHING!!! He seems to know whats coming.

Also, about shelton, he hasn't been on a tear fior 2 months. he came out and killed the ball for 2 weeks and hasn't done much since. Not really a fair comparison.

A more fair comparison would be Roberts from last year. And you kniow what? Roberts came down to earth. But he got injured and Tejada went in the tank as well. As long as he's healthy and Wells and Glaus are healthy Rios will keep it up.
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Postby TheRawDAWG » Thu Jun 01, 2006 6:33 pm

BTW, 6 walks in his last 8 games. he had 2 in his first 20. He is seeing more pitches which is what you want to see. An improvement.
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Postby j24jags » Thu Jun 01, 2006 6:50 pm

The_Met_Threat wrote:
j24jags wrote:
mweir145 wrote:
TheRawDAWG wrote:
mweir145 wrote:
TheRawDAWG wrote:You know what guys? Sometimes you little numbers and projections and saying a player is getting lucky just doesn't do it. Rios is killing the ball. Everytime he makes contact he drives the ball hard. He is in a zone and he's been there for 2 months. He was a great prospect now realizing his potential. His average is definately NOT lucky. He one a couple batting titles in the minors. And now he's added some pop because of a stance change and maturation. It happens ALL the time.

I personally can't see him keeping this up. And even if he has changed for the better, again, the lack of walks will catch up to him. His average won't stay this high.


I'd be more concerned with him not keeping up the power more so than the average. Like i said, he's always hit for a great average. He'll hit .335

He hasn't always hit for a good average. Before this season he was hitting .273 in the major leagues, and in the minors .293 (boosted by one amazing year in double A, everything else was pretty lackluster).

This is my projection right now for his year end stats:

.315, 20 HR, 80 RBIs, 90 R, and about 15 SB. Still very good, but I'm just not sold on him yet.

Wow. He is on pace to soar past those


"On pace" what bs. Sure chris shelton was on pace for over 100 hr at the beginning of the season, Pujols is on pace for like 82, they wont hit these numbers. Just because Rios is hitting .350 1/3rd through the season doesnt mean hes gonna keep it up. He has nothing in his baseball career to indicate that, he was terrible last year. Just be happy with those numbers, but even i think they could be a little high, especially the .315 avg. I see him going through some big slumps the rest of the way.

I know that pace means diddley squat but my point is that those are still way too conservative IMO
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Postby nola » Thu Jun 01, 2006 10:26 pm

dracovonborax wrote:so you'd give up the batting average of Rios for the power of Dunn..even though he's dying in the average dept. ??


Rios was in the .260s last season. Maybe he is going to stay really hot, but maybe he isn't. If the BB:K were improving too maybe I'd be buying it... but I'm not.
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Postby PinotResa » Fri Jun 02, 2006 12:29 am

TheRawDAWG wrote:I'd be more concerned with him not keeping up the power more so than the average. Like i said, he's always hit for a great average. He'll hit .335


That's quite a claim. I think he has an outside shot at it, but it's unlikely. Rios has shown he can hit for that type of average once before. In 2003 at AA New Haven, Rios hit .352 in 562 PA. That should be about equal to .333 in the majors.

In the other four years of equal playing time in the minors, Rios hit for far less, .293 career minor leauge aveage (including 2003). .273 combined average in first two season in MLB, .288 career.
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Postby TheRawDAWG » Fri Jun 02, 2006 10:31 am

nola wrote:
dracovonborax wrote:so you'd give up the batting average of Rios for the power of Dunn..even though he's dying in the average dept. ??


Rios was in the .260s last season. Maybe he is going to stay really hot, but maybe he isn't. If the BB:K were improving too maybe I'd be buying it... but I'm not.


They are improving. 6 walks the last 8 games. The pitchers are starting to take him seriously and he's not swinging at the garbage. That is improvement. But seriously, don't buy it then. We'll just have to see how it plays out.
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Postby TheRawDAWG » Fri Jun 02, 2006 11:42 am

Interesting article.


http://www.torontosun.com/Sports/Baseba ... 7-sun.html


The most interesting line:


"Alex Rios, when he came to our farm system was, for a lot of us from that old group, the best offensive player we had seen and that included Carlos Delgado and Shawn Green," Buckley said.






Now I don't know about you guys, but I think Delgado and Green have been awesome MLB players.


On a side note, i wonder who the Jays would have picked at 19 had they had a windfall of money. Would be interesting to know.
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Postby J35J » Fri Jun 02, 2006 2:57 pm

PinotResa wrote:
TheRawDAWG wrote:I'd be more concerned with him not keeping up the power more so than the average. Like i said, he's always hit for a great average. He'll hit .335


That's quite a claim. I think he has an outside shot at it, but it's unlikely. Rios has shown he can hit for that type of average once before. In 2003 at AA New Haven, Rios hit .352 in 562 PA. That should be about equal to .333 in the majors.

In the other four years of equal playing time in the minors, Rios hit for far less, .293 career minor leauge aveage (including 2003). .273 combined average in first two season in MLB, .288 career.


If Rios ends up with a .315 avg for the season, which is probably the high end, then that means he will hit .285 - .290 the rest of the way. In other words, sell high if someone will take him thinking he will continue at the .350+ pace.

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