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Are Walks Good or Bad in 5x5?

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Postby garf112 » Fri May 26, 2006 4:29 pm

chadlincoln wrote:They don't help. Your guys walks, next guy gets out, you have nothing to show for it. Your guy gets a single, next guy strikes out, you then have something to show for it in average. I guess it's better than 0-1, but doesn't directly help at all.


You can't say they don't help period.

They obviously help in runs scored. I'm sure you've had a guy at 0-0 with one run (and maybe even a sb) before.

There might be a slight correlation between bb and hr.

I don't think bb's have much to do with average or RsBi.
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Postby garf112 » Fri May 26, 2006 4:34 pm

The Loveable Losers wrote:
garf112 wrote:I've seen studies about aging that might help us here. A player's walk rate and his HR total go up as he gets older. Does that tell us that a more patient player will see his HR total go up? Maybe. Just food for thought.

I don't think the walks take away from HR opportunities, as the player obviously did not see a pitch that he could hit out of the park in that at bat. Unless he is Mike Piazza and watches meatballs go down the pipe on EVERY 3-0 count.

They may take away from RBI totals a little bit. Runner on 3rd less than two outs. Player walks... no rbi. Player hits the ball, but gets out... high probability of getting an rbi.


Very good points there. I think there may be something to the walk rate and hr totals going up in tandem...in fact there are definitely studies that show a correlation there. The question is how much that mitigates the fact that they did not hit a home run in the plate appearances that they walked. And there is also the fact that you mentioned that a lot of walks come because the batter did not get a pitch to drive. So you would have to adjust for that as well.

These things are all quantifiable but the problem is there are a lot of factors to consider...once we figure out all of the factors and come up with some way to measure the effect of each one it should be relatively simple to design the formulas to define the effect that a change in plate discipline would have on the 5x5 roto value of the player.


When you say "plate discipline", you are also bringing K's into the conversation. Obviously, a decline in Ks= an increase in BA. Again, aging studies play this out. As players get older, they strike out less, walk more and hit more home runs.
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Postby George_Foreman » Fri May 26, 2006 4:44 pm

Walks are irrelevant in 5x5. The only categories that truly matter are the ones that get counted. Obviously, walks will effect these other categories and should be taken into account when projecting them, but by themselves, walks are irrelevant.
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Postby garf112 » Fri May 26, 2006 4:49 pm

George_Foreman wrote:Walks are irrelevant in 5x5. The only categories that truly matter are the ones that get counted. Obviously, walks will effect these other categories and should be taken into account when projecting them, but by themselves, walks are irrelevant.


I don't think anyone said that walks by themselves matter. I think we are trying to figure out: If Batter A sees a spike in bb% from 8% to 10%, what are the effects on the 5X5 stats?
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Postby chadlincoln » Fri May 26, 2006 4:50 pm

garf112 wrote:
chadlincoln wrote:They don't help. Your guys walks, next guy gets out, you have nothing to show for it. Your guy gets a single, next guy strikes out, you then have something to show for it in average. I guess it's better than 0-1, but doesn't directly help at all.


You can't say they don't help period.

They obviously help in runs scored. I'm sure you've had a guy at 0-0 with one run (and maybe even a sb) before.

There might be a slight correlation between bb and hr.

I don't think bb's have much to do with average or RsBi.
Walks do not help you in 5X5. SB's help you. Scoring runs helps you. Walks alone don't help you. Hits alone help you, unlike walks.
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Postby garf112 » Fri May 26, 2006 4:54 pm

chadlincoln wrote:
garf112 wrote:
chadlincoln wrote:They don't help. Your guys walks, next guy gets out, you have nothing to show for it. Your guy gets a single, next guy strikes out, you then have something to show for it in average. I guess it's better than 0-1, but doesn't directly help at all.


You can't say they don't help period.

They obviously help in runs scored. I'm sure you've had a guy at 0-0 with one run (and maybe even a sb) before.

There might be a slight correlation between bb and hr.

I don't think bb's have much to do with average or RsBi.
Walks do not help you in 5X5. SB's help you. Scoring runs helps you. Walks alone don't help you. Hits alone help you, unlike walks.


See post above.

Stop contradicting me just to contradict me. If you don't think a spike in walk rate has any effect on a player Rs, HRs, RBIs, SB, BA, that's fine. But don't just say "walks don't help in 5X5." Everyone knows that, and no one was trying to make that point.
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Postby chadlincoln » Fri May 26, 2006 4:57 pm

garf112 wrote:
chadlincoln wrote:
garf112 wrote:
chadlincoln wrote:They don't help. Your guys walks, next guy gets out, you have nothing to show for it. Your guy gets a single, next guy strikes out, you then have something to show for it in average. I guess it's better than 0-1, but doesn't directly help at all.


You can't say they don't help period.

They obviously help in runs scored. I'm sure you've had a guy at 0-0 with one run (and maybe even a sb) before.

There might be a slight correlation between bb and hr.

I don't think bb's have much to do with average or RsBi.
Walks do not help you in 5X5. SB's help you. Scoring runs helps you. Walks alone don't help you. Hits alone help you, unlike walks.


See post above.

Stop contradicting me just to contradict me. If you don't think a spike in walk rate has any effect on a player Rs, HRs, RBIs, SB, BA, that's fine. But don't just say "walks don't help in 5X5." Everyone knows that, and no one was trying to make that point.
I'm not trying to contradict you. Walks alone do not help. That's the point I made. Get over yourself.
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Fri May 26, 2006 4:57 pm

garf112 wrote:When you say "plate discipline", you are also bringing K's into the conversation. Obviously, a decline in Ks= an increase in BA. Again, aging studies play this out. As players get older, they strike out less, walk more and hit more home runs.


I think you're definitely right on track with what the aging studies show us and I think there's been some regression analysis done that shows a correlation between plate discipline and hr rates irrespective of player's age. The question becomes whether that completely, partially or does not negate the fact that walking takes away all chance of hitting a home run in that plate appearance. I tend to think it's somewhere in the middle but it would take a good statistical analysis to answer that question.

garf112 wrote:
George_Foreman wrote:Walks are irrelevant in 5x5. The only categories that truly matter are the ones that get counted. Obviously, walks will effect these other categories and should be taken into account when projecting them, but by themselves, walks are irrelevant.


I don't think anyone said that walks by themselves matter. I think we are trying to figure out: If Batter A sees a spike in bb% from 8% to 10%, what are the effects on the 5X5 stats?


Exactly. Walks are obviously meaningless by themself in 5x5 leagues. But walks undeniably have an effect on all 5 roto categories. By determining some quantifiable way to measure that effect you could project what would happen to their roto stats if say for example Jose Reyes actually starts walking more or if Adam Dunn suddenly started swinging at anything near the plate. That would be useful information especially in a case with a guy that shows NO plate discipline (Soriano for example). Obviously Soriano would be a better baseball player if he learned to take a walk. But I'm not so sure he would be a better 5x5 roto player. That's the type of thing we're trying to get to the bottom of here.
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Postby garf112 » Fri May 26, 2006 5:05 pm

The Loveable Losers wrote: By determining some quantifiable way to measure that effect you could project what would happen to their roto stats if say for example Jose Reyes actually starts walking more


Jose Reyes is walking more:

2005: 4% bb rate

2006: 9% bb rate

The only thing that has not gone up as a result is his batting average, which is down .020. I think because of an inflated fb%. OBP is up, SLG is up, HR% is up, XBH% is up.
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Fri May 26, 2006 5:13 pm

garf112 wrote:
The Loveable Losers wrote: By determining some quantifiable way to measure that effect you could project what would happen to their roto stats if say for example Jose Reyes actually starts walking more


Jose Reyes is walking more:

2005: 4% bb rate

2006: 9% bb rate

The only thing that has not gone up as a result is his batting average, which is down .020. I think because of an inflated fb%. OBP is up, SLG is up, HR% is up, XBH% is up.


It's just going to take a real statistician to run the numbers to find out how much of a correlation there is there on a league-wide basis and we'll be able to measure that increase against the decrease in at bats to find out which one is more significant and put a number on the overall effect. We know what the 2 factors are for home runs (walks directly reduce the number of at bats and cause the hr% to go up in the at bats the hitter does get) so it's just a matter of finding the proper weight for both and we have our formula for hr's.

Stolen bases is just about as easy...take the (obp-ba)/ba as a percentage (ie say .400 obp and .300 average gives us a (400-300)/300 or 1/3 increase in times on base). If a batter never walked and hit .300 they would get on base 30% of the time. If they walk enough to have a .400obp they're getting on base 40% of the time. That's an increase of times on base of 33% so you would expect a 33% increase in stolen bases if a player suddenly went from never walking to walking enough to have a .300avg/.400obp.

Runs and Rbi's are going to be a lot more complicated to work out as we have a lot of issues that I've brought up as well as some that other people have brought to light (walks with runners on third and less than 2 outs for example) that seriously complicate the rbi category.

Average is simple...it's just a question of how much weight to give it. Good hitters are hurt here by walks...bad hitters are helped. That's obvious and it just becomes a question of how much that affects the overall 5x5 value.
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