Jimmy Rollins is on his way out as the leadoff hitter in Philly. Abreu should be taking over soon and will be the best leadoff man in the majors, hands down. i just posted a long post in another topic but feel its relative here too.
Jimmy Rollins has never been a prototypical leadoff hitter. He doesnt walk, he doesnt take pitches, he doesnt work pitchers. He constantly is hitting the ball in the air and swinging at the first pitch. Before his ridiculous hitting streak last season Rollins was hitting in the .250's. And this wasnt just a few games. This was about 120 games into the season. Larry Bowa moved Rollins out of the leadoff spot numerous times before Charlie Manuel took over. The problem was that the best leadoff hitter on the team refused to move out of the 3rd hole because he was afraid his rbi and overall power numbers would suffer. The player im speaking of is Bobby Abreu. It wasnt really made that big a deal since Abreu was needed to hit 3rd with the lack of run producers in the phillies order. NOW the phillies have a prototypical 3 hitter in Chase Utley and there has been plenty of talk here in philadelphia that Rollins needs to moved out of the leadoff spot. Charlie's Manuel's response to this (2 days ago) and that i want to see what Jimmy Rollins can do. (as if he hasnt hit leadoff for the past 5 seasons. So 1 day later Shane Victorino is leading off. Oh ok, the phillies have a new leadoff hitter in Victorino. Not so fast. Aaron Rowand returns from the DL on saturday and will send Victorino back to his occasional pinch hitting/running and late inning defensive replacement duties. Only until very recently has Abreu said he would now be ok moving into the leadoff spot (a week ago he said that he didnt want to talk about the topic). So now one can only assume Victorino will leadoff in tomorrow's night game and that Abreu will hit leadoff on Saturday.
As for Rollins's value...i would have to say that his rbi's are going to go up fairly significantly if he starts hitting 2nd or 6th. if he hits 2nd, he's going to have the chance to hit behind abreu who is on base about 42 % of the time. in this spot, Rollins' other numbers should stay relatively similar but anyone expecting a .290 avg is kidding themselves. Rollins will hit around .270-.275 with 10-15 hr and 30 sb. The phils dont really seem to run that much under Manuel and with Rollins hitting 2nd, i doubt he'll be risking getting thrown out with Utley, Burrell, and Howard up to bat. While i do predict Rollins getting his 30 sb, i could easily see it being 20-25. The real difference in value is going to be Abreu. Already a great run scorer, this number is going to go up with the added at bats but his rbi's should sag as well. Utley's rbi's should go up a smidge though picking up for Abreu's slack. Victorino will be a bench player, and Rowand will be getting alot of RBI opportunities in the 6 hole and all you Howard owners dont have to worry about him hitting 6th or 7th anymore. he should be firmly planted in the 5 hole for the rest of the season.
EDIT----there is now talk about Rowand taking the leadoff spot, but i dont really see that happening.
I just don't see Abreu getting moved to the leadoff slot. I'll agree it makes sabermetrical sense but I don't see it actually happening. I actually like Utley hitting second if Abreu's 3rd.
Just going reverse obp here's what the Phillies lineup would look like based on this year's stats only:
Abreu
Burrell
Utley
Rowand
Howard
Bell
Lieberthal
Rollins
Obviously though certain players are over and under performing their talent this year so that skews things a bit...still makes for an interesting lineup.
I definetly cannot see Abreu being moved...I would cry, I need RBI from him. I though I read yesterday that Manuel said he refused to move Abreu from the 3 spot.
he didnt refuse, hes actually considering it but rollins is expected to hit leadoff on saturday, but i dont see it lasting too long considering how bad he is there.
well that doesnt really matter either because manuel will be fired by the all star break. gillick wants abreu there and gillick controls manuel's fate, i have a slight inclination that manuel will listen to gillick.
good find though, (even though the delaware journal isnt really highly regarded in philadelphia for baseball news)
i think the fact that he has a home run goes to show you how bad of a "slump" hes in. Jimmy tries to swing for the fences in every at bat. when hes not, thats when he is productive over a long period of time. its only a matter of time.....
by The Loveable Losers » Sat May 27, 2006 11:33 pm
Snakes Gould wrote:i think the fact that he has a home run goes to show you how bad of a "slump" hes in. Jimmy tries to swing for the fences in every at bat. when hes not, thats when he is productive over a long period of time. its only a matter of time.....
Actually Rollins ground ball percentage is UP every year over the last 3 - including this year. It's still low for a speedster like he is...I'd like it over 50%. But it was 43.3% in 2004, 44.4% in 2005 and 45.7% now in 2006 (was 45.5% when I wrote the article in my sig). If anything he's swinging for the fences slightly less.
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