yourgodsdice wrote:I've been wondering the same thing. Here is my take.
While I think he's a decent low buy, he's probably not going to repeat his SB or power numbers he put up last year. Rollins seems to follow a pattern of a strong year or two followed by 2 "down" years. In 2001, Rollins broke into the league as a regular with a bang with 14 HR, 46 SB, and a respectable .274 avg. However, In 2002 he hit only .245. In 2003 his 20 SB's were much lower than his average of about 33/year and hit .263.
But he had another great year in 2004, followed by another solid effort last year. So I can see why he's slumping again this year based on past history.
If you look at his splits, he's 20 points higher on his career avg after the all star break while the rest of his fantasy cats are pretty even. I'd expect him to finish at around .265 at best with 25 sb and 11 HRs. Modest numbers, but top 12 ss numbers nevertheless.
Expecting players to hit a certain way based on what they do after having a good year or whatever, is extremely flawed. It's even more flawed when you're going by a pattern that hasn't even repeated and is being misinterpreted.
1. You're saying that he had a great year in 2001, followed by down years of 2002 and 2003. Fine. Then, he had two great years of 2004 and 2005...and so now he's going to have a bad year this year. Why does this make no sense to me? It's not an argument at all. Up, down, down, up, up, ??? That's not a pattern at all. Instead, you should be looking at why
he had good years 2004-2005...it was because he turned himself into a better hitter. He did burst onto the scene in 2001, but when pitchers made adjustments to him, he wasn't able to respond in 02-03. That may have been exacerbated by the fact that he simply wasn't ready.
2. .265 average with 25 SBs and 11 HRs. HRs looks decent, as that's pretty much what he's hit the last two years. SBs is arbitrary...I personally think he'll steal 35-40 when the year's over. There's no reason for him not to. The average you predicted is rather mind-boggling, though. This is a hitter who's hit .289 and .290 his last two seasons...which shows that he has improved as a hitter and become a .280s type guy. Why would he return to levels of immaturity? He only hit .260 last year in April and May and still ended at .290. His average can be improved drasically by a hot streak. Hell, Carl Crawford's average rose 20 or so points last night in one game!
I think Rollins is a highly recommended buy-low candidate to those of y'all who need some stolen bases.