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Rollins, 6th???

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Rollins, 6th???

Postby LL » Thu May 25, 2006 3:42 pm

I recently traded for Rollins as I figured he was a great Buy Low Candidate. I noticed he had weak April/May starts in both '04 and '05, and he sure is off to a weak start here in '06. Today Philly even has him batting 6th as an attempt to send him a message or something...

What I'm wondering is, do you think he'll turn it up a few notches this summer or is he just overhyped due to his hit-streak from last year???
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Postby yourgodsdice » Thu May 25, 2006 3:59 pm

I've been wondering the same thing. Here is my take.

While I think he's a decent low buy, he's probably not going to repeat his SB or power numbers he put up last year. Rollins seems to follow a pattern of a strong year or two followed by 2 "down" years. In 2001, Rollins broke into the league as a regular with a bang with 14 HR, 46 SB, and a respectable .274 avg. However, In 2002 he hit only .245. In 2003 his 20 SB's were much lower than his average of about 33/year and hit .263.

But he had another great year in 2004, followed by another solid effort last year. So I can see why he's slumping again this year based on past history.

If you look at his splits, he's 20 points higher on his career avg after the all star break while the rest of his fantasy cats are pretty even. I'd expect him to finish at around .265 at best with 25 sb and 11 HRs. Modest numbers, but top 12 ss numbers nevertheless.
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Postby warrick95 » Thu May 25, 2006 5:20 pm

yourgodsdice wrote:I've been wondering the same thing. Here is my take.

While I think he's a decent low buy, he's probably not going to repeat his SB or power numbers he put up last year. Rollins seems to follow a pattern of a strong year or two followed by 2 "down" years. In 2001, Rollins broke into the league as a regular with a bang with 14 HR, 46 SB, and a respectable .274 avg. However, In 2002 he hit only .245. In 2003 his 20 SB's were much lower than his average of about 33/year and hit .263.

But he had another great year in 2004, followed by another solid effort last year. So I can see why he's slumping again this year based on past history.

If you look at his splits, he's 20 points higher on his career avg after the all star break while the rest of his fantasy cats are pretty even. I'd expect him to finish at around .265 at best with 25 sb and 11 HRs. Modest numbers, but top 12 ss numbers nevertheless.


Expecting players to hit a certain way based on what they do after having a good year or whatever, is extremely flawed. It's even more flawed when you're going by a pattern that hasn't even repeated and is being misinterpreted.

1. You're saying that he had a great year in 2001, followed by down years of 2002 and 2003. Fine. Then, he had two great years of 2004 and 2005...and so now he's going to have a bad year this year. Why does this make no sense to me? It's not an argument at all. Up, down, down, up, up, ??? That's not a pattern at all. Instead, you should be looking at why he had good years 2004-2005...it was because he turned himself into a better hitter. He did burst onto the scene in 2001, but when pitchers made adjustments to him, he wasn't able to respond in 02-03. That may have been exacerbated by the fact that he simply wasn't ready.

2. .265 average with 25 SBs and 11 HRs. HRs looks decent, as that's pretty much what he's hit the last two years. SBs is arbitrary...I personally think he'll steal 35-40 when the year's over. There's no reason for him not to. The average you predicted is rather mind-boggling, though. This is a hitter who's hit .289 and .290 his last two seasons...which shows that he has improved as a hitter and become a .280s type guy. Why would he return to levels of immaturity? He only hit .260 last year in April and May and still ended at .290. His average can be improved drasically by a hot streak. Hell, Carl Crawford's average rose 20 or so points last night in one game!

I think Rollins is a highly recommended buy-low candidate to those of y'all who need some stolen bases.
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Postby pappymojo » Thu May 25, 2006 6:01 pm

I agree with the last poster. There is nothing to suggest that Rollins hitting follows an up year/down year pattern. Hitters grow with experience. They slump and have trouble, and then they fight their way through their trouble. The ones that improve as a result of their struggles are good hitters. The ones that don't improve aren't good hitters.

Rollins will come around. He had a very rough stretch last year where he wasnt hitting. Of course, he made up for it with his hitting streak.

He's a good buy low candidate. Don't be alarmed if he's batting lower in the order. It won't last. Rollins is just streaky, and right now he's on a down streak. Once he's on an up streak, you'll be psyched.
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Postby activechamp2006 » Thu May 25, 2006 6:31 pm

i would stay away from rollins.. hes over rated coming into this season.. the only thing that makes him decent are his sbs, and when hes not doing that hes trash :-t stop making him out to be better then he is people :-t
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Postby The Big Stick » Thu May 25, 2006 6:35 pm

I was proposed Jeter for him and I reject it :-P . What was I :-° . LOL I hope he turns it around.
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Postby yourgodsdice » Thu May 25, 2006 6:44 pm

You make fine points, warrick.

I guess I'm not trying to make a point, just an observation. I still do think he is worth owning and if you can buy low, great. And maybe he will improve as the year progresses. I hope he does, I own him in 2 leagues and trying to buy low in a 3rd. I just wouldn't be surprised if he's a little down compared to last year for any possible explanation out there...
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Postby Snakes Gould » Thu May 25, 2006 6:50 pm

WOW i just wrote this really long post but i accidently opened something else in the page! here we go again anyway



i disagree with the previous posters. Jimmy Rollins has never been a prototypical leadoff hitter. He doesnt walk, he doesnt take pitches, he doesnt work pitchers. He constantly is hitting the ball in the air and swinging at the first pitch. Before his ridiculous hitting streak last season Rollins was hitting in the .250's. And this wasnt just a few games. This was about 120 games into the season. Larry Bowa moved Rollins out of the leadoff spot numerous times before Charlie Manuel took over. The problem was that the best leadoff hitter on the team refused to move out of the 3rd hole because he was afraid his rbi and overall power numbers would suffer. The player im speaking of is Bobby Abreu. It wasnt really made that big a deal since Abreu was needed to hit 3rd with the lack of run producers in the phillies order. NOW the phillies have a prototypical 3 hitter in Chase Utley and there has been plenty of talk here in philadelphia that Rollins needs to moved out of the leadoff spot. Charlie's Manuel's response to this (2 days ago) and that i want to see what Jimmy Rollins can do. (as if he hasnt hit leadoff for the past 5 seasons. So 1 day later Shane Victorino is leading off. Oh ok, the phillies have a new leadoff hitter in Victorino. Not so fast. Aaron Rowand returns from the DL on saturday and will send Victorino back to his occasional pinch hitting/running and late inning defensive replacement duties. Only until very recently has Abreu said he would now be ok moving into the leadoff spot (a week ago he said that he didnt want to talk about the topic). So now one can only assume Victorino will leadoff in tomorrow's night game and that Abreu will hit leadoff on Saturday.

As for Rollins's value...i would have to say that his rbi's are going to go up fairly significantly if he starts hitting 2nd or 6th. if he hits 2nd, he's going to have the chance to hit behind abreu who is on base about 42 % of the time. in this spot, Rollins' other numbers should stay relatively similar but anyone expecting a .290 avg is kidding themselves. Rollins will hit around .270-.275 with 10-15 hr and 30 sb. The phils dont really seem to run that much under Manuel and with Rollins hitting 2nd, i doubt he'll be risking getting thrown out with Utley, Burrell, and Howard up to bat. While i do predict Rollins getting his 30 sb, i could easily see it being 20-25. The real difference in value is going to be Abreu. Already a great run scorer, this number is going to go up with the added at bats but his rbi's should sag as well.
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Postby Armed and Hammered » Thu May 25, 2006 8:13 pm

activechamp2006 wrote:i would stay away from rollins.. hes over rated coming into this season.. the only thing that makes him decent are his sbs, and when hes not doing that hes trash :-t stop making him out to be better then he is people :-t


Over 115 runs scored the last two years would help any team.

He's only played 5 full seasons. They avg out to .275 12 HR's 60 RBI's 35 steals and 100 runs a year in his only 5 yrs in the league. He is what he is and I would bet his numbers come very close to those career numbers before the year is over. He is 27 yrs old and there is no reason I can see that he doesn't turn this whole thing around again.
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Postby Geek » Thu May 25, 2006 8:51 pm

Armed and Hammered wrote:
activechamp2006 wrote:i would stay away from rollins.. hes over rated coming into this season.. the only thing that makes him decent are his sbs, and when hes not doing that hes trash :-t stop making him out to be better then he is people :-t


Over 115 runs scored the last two years would help any team.

He's only played 5 full seasons. They avg out to .275 12 HR's 60 RBI's 35 steals and 100 runs a year in his only 5 yrs in the league. He is what he is and I would bet his numbers come very close to those career numbers before the year is over. He is 27 yrs old and there is no reason I can see that he doesn't turn this whole thing around again.


Not if he trashes your team batting average. He's the Adam Dunn of base stealers.

Except he's not stealing bases this year. He's averaging less than one steal attempt per week. That's horrible.
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