Despite peoples' saying he'll cool off, I'm becoming more and more the believer.
1. Killer Spring Training
2. Strong start, leading league in AVG
3. Crazy power numbers that won't die. Another 2HR night tonight
4. Even on his hitless days, he tends to go 0/2 with two walks and an SB.
He's already matched last years stolen bases.He will be moving up in the lineup . That should get him more RBI chances.I've turned down a couple of offers for him. He's hot now when I need him. Enjoy the ride!!!!
I am not ready to say that a guy who has sucked for years is the real deal based on playing well for 7 weeks. Casey Blake, at the end of the day, is still Casey Blake. Buyer beware.
I, too, am totally surprised and delighted by his production. I was nervous after his 0-5 the other night, thinking that he'd come back down to earth, but those two HRs spoke volumes. I respectfully disagree with Stumpak, 'cause Blake really hasn't been that bad over the last three years, and his power numbers have been pretty good for a guy who was a part-timer at one point. I'm not saying that this will last, but enjoy the ride. I sure am...
stumpak wrote:I am not ready to say that a guy who has sucked for years is the real deal based on playing well for 7 weeks. Casey Blake, at the end of the day, is still Casey Blake. Buyer beware.
Even though "sucked for years" is such great analysis, I'll try to offer a counter here. The average of his last three seasons:
.256, 82/23/71/5. This is not awesome for an outfielder, but certainly not sucking either. He'll end up .280-.290, 90/33/100/10 this year IMO.
.256 82/23/71/5 is indeed sucking for an OF, both in fantasy terms and real-life MLB terms. Those type of numbers would not even get an OF rostered in deep leagues. They are below the fantasy OF average production for R, RBI and SBs, way way way below average in BA and maybe average in HR. This is irrefutably poor production. People don't like to pick up Cameron because he kills BA and he is essentially .256/82/23/71 but with a lot more SBs.
Right now Blake has an 2006 OPS .300 points above his previous career average. Something like this over a full season for a 31 year old would be almost unprecedented annuls of MLB. Mora did something kind of like this in 2002, but that is really the only instance I can remember.
The only point I will concede is that is eye rate is much improved this season, moving from 1:3 to more like 1:1.5.
So if you want to roll the dice with him fine, but I woudl basically be happy with the hot start and expect nothing a whole lot better than the usual sucky Blake numbers moving forward.
Here's the ultimate study on Casey Blake's season so far:
Beyond the Box Score: Casey Blake We can agree to disagree on whether his career numbers equal "sucking" and to what degree, but the bottom line is that even if he falls back to usual level, my predicted line is certainly likely, and that means he'll finish above the average fantasy OF this season, and that his numbers from this point will still be useful.
This guy is the prototype for luck right now, but to give him credit he's obviously seeing the ball well and hitting solid line drives as well. The fact is he's going to revert back to Casey Blake of old.
Heres what I see him finishing the year with:
.267 Avg 86 R 27 HR 83 RBI 9 SB
Best Case I could see:
.280 Avg 95 R 30 HR 90 RBI 10 SB
(This is only if Blake took up the #3 spot in the lineup or something, which would be stupid)
Like Shelton, trade him now while his value is high.
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by OneLoveBoomer » Wed May 24, 2006 10:51 pm 
