In my experience it takes 3 quarters to a full season of good play for a player to make his mark as an established fantasy producer....
The only exception to this is if a young prospect who already has name recognition gets called up and produces right away.
It just takes time for managers to gain trust in a player. Carpenter is a good example.
If you tried to trade him for a top tier pitcher at the beginning of last year you would have been laughed at but now that he has produced for over a year, he has made a name for himself and his value jumped from 3rd tier to top tier pitcher.
I recently got a trade vetoed (My Arroyo and Valverde for Lidge and Willis) do to the fact that Arroyo and Valverde dont have a long enough track record.
Just the way it works....
Hype can also lower a fantasy players value and that's when you cheat the system.
Players who land on the DL more than once within a two or more year time frame become cheaper than they should be because they get labelled as injury prone and that is the key to any fantasy sport.
Players such as Halladay and Nomar could have been drafted 5 to 10 rounds later than they should have been because of negetive hype and thus become draft day steals....
Prior and Sheets, who only a year or two ago would have been drafted in the top 3 rounds but because of injuries can be had dirt cheap right now.
The pendalem works both ways......
Last edited by rippz on Tue May 23, 2006 2:54 pm, edited 2 times in total.
I think that at one time or another just about everyone turns down a trade like the above on the Carpenter side which obviously makes sense from a value standpoint but when it comes to "names" and/or reputations, stinks on the surface.
Last year, I traded John Lackey and Morgan Ensberg for Sheets before Sheets got hurt. I thought I got a great deal, and the league grumbled like crazy that I was ripping the guy off. Well, obviously I wasn't, as Lackey produced last year and has shown this year that it wasn't a fluke. We all know what Ensberg went on to do - it turns out that "I" was the one getting ripped off.
Valverde is a PERFECT example of this phenomenon, and I'm glad you brought him up. He's gonna go for 35-40 saves and 80+ strikeouts this year with respectable ratios - that puts him at the top of the second tier of closers. But no one, and I mean no one, will every pay for him as such. I drafted him late in every league I am in, and in auction leagues where closers go for low-mid 20s, I got him for $10. I then traded him for Podsednik to an owner who is a little older and knows values vs. perception is usually wrong. The league immediately started in about how I ripped him off - meanwhile it's been as fair a trade as can be. It completely helped us both - which is what a trade is supposed to do.
I believe this is my longest post ever! Great, great thread.
With those stat values and my stern belief that Valverde is going to be an awesome player for at least the next 5 years, I think you are lucky the trade was vetoed. I see why you wanted to do the trade though, Carp could very well be more valuable than Valverde. Too bad you're in a league of insecure, under experienced babies who don't know how to play the fantasy game.
Good luck with getting this overturned. Valverde is insanely valuable in your format and the only worry I'd have with him is that I'd still label him as an injury risk.
It doesn't take a long time for me to 'believe' in a new closer. If they've shown the tools to succeed in the job in their minor league careers and especially if they've extended that into quality setup work at the major league level then I don't see why we would not believe they have what it takes to succeed. Valverde is a perfect example and because of his undervaluation was a major target for me in my drafts. I'm more apt to take some time to believe in a starting pitcher since what it takes to succeed in that role at the minor league level doesn't necessarily get you by at the major league level. Once a guy's seen you once through the order you better be able to change SOMETHING (speed, different pitch, pinpoint location to set them up in a different way) or major league hitters WILL figure you out. Closers don't have to face guys twice and can get by on pure stuff more than a starting pitcher can.
by Wade Boggs' Mustache » Tue May 23, 2006 4:45 pm
Well, I'm glad I was able to spark some conversation on this subject. Seems like everyone's had their fair share of buy low, sell high circumstances. Another question, if anyone has experienced a similar situation (with a public CBS league, commish is CBS), is there any way possible to get explain why I feel it's a fair trade to the commish? Thanks.
Death To Funston! wrote:here's something else to think about....
2005 numbers: (my league counts hits)
101/15/81/46/.301 194 hits
115/12/54/41/.290 196 hits
looking at those numbers, i'd say those 2 players are almost even, with crawford's being a bit better, but that difference is easily washed away by rollins' SS eligibility.
of course we know that crawford was a "consensus" top 10 pick coming into the season and rollins was maybe a 4th or 5th rounder.
true value: approx even market value: CC - 1st Rd, JR - 5th round.
doesn't seem quite right now does it?
The RBI's are the difference here as well as stolen base upside - CC could conceivably steal 50-60 bases and Rollins probably can not. I'd be more apt to call Rollins underrated (based on his 2005 performance - not the 2006 stinker he's had so far) than to say CC was overrated (again, just looking at the 2005 numbers that you quoted).