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Market Value vs. Track Record

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Market Value vs. Track Record

Postby Wade Boggs' Mustache » Tue May 23, 2006 1:01 pm

Ok, this is my first post, but I've been lurking since the start of the season and nothing but great advice. I'm not sure if this is the forum that this post belongs, if not, my bad. I didn't want to post until I really felt I had something worth while to discuss and view opinions of others. I'm in a H2H points league and just recently offered a trade of Valverde/Bedard for Chris Carpenter. I didn't think it stood a chance of being accepted and was basically a setup offer, but to my surprise the owner accpeted and it has quickly gathered 5 objections. I'm assuming the objections are that I'm ripping the other owner off. Now Valverde has 30 more points than Carpenter at this point in the season, but Carpenter is obviously one of the top SP in the game and the NL Cy Young winner of 2005 to boot. So my question is, at what point do you say, hey, Valverde is producing and could keep this up given the save opportunities? Does it take half a season, 3/4's of a season, a full season to give Valverde this kind of value? I mean, Rivera for Carpenter would make more sense because they both have the "track record", but Valverde's fair value at this time has him as a top 10 pitcher in my points league. Hoping to get some good insight on this. Thanks. And once again, I know this is a trade topic, but I'm not asking for advice as to if I should do this trade, so I didn't think it belonged in that forum. If it does, my bad.
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Postby Dan Lambskin » Tue May 23, 2006 1:19 pm

nice name BTW ;-D

the reality of the situation is that your league has no business objecting to that trade. unfortunately, i dont know what kind of convincing you can try with them
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Postby garf112 » Tue May 23, 2006 1:27 pm

Excellent first post (and in the right forum as well). I'd say it is up to the individual owner to decide when a track record has been developed in-season. IMO, you can find trends better through K/9 and BB/9 rates in pitchers and k/ab and bb/ab, as well as extra base hits in hitters fairly early in the season. I think anything under 100 at bats for hitters, 20 innings for relievers, or 6 or so starts for a starter in a season is too small of a sample. Even then, I will look back at the player's history to figure out if this is an aberation, or if he could really have improved.

In Valverde's case, he is 26, which is right around the age that a pitcher matures, has shown past success both in the majors and minors, and has the opportunity to be the closer for a team that will win its fair share of close games. I'd worry a little bit about his walk rate, and probably enough so that I wouldn't trade Chris Carpenter for him, but I see why an owner would do so, especially when getting a pitcher with the upside of Bedard.

This isn't a trade that I would veto, but its also not a trade that I would do, unless I was getting Carpenter (of course, I don't know the rules of your points league, so that might change my mind).
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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Tue May 23, 2006 1:51 pm

Wade Boggs' Mustache wrote:Does it take half a season, 3/4's of a season, a full season to give Valverde this kind of value?


there is no magic answer. i think this sums it up:

garf112 wrote: I'd say it is up to the individual owner to decide when a track record has been developed in-season.


everyone is different. i apply different standards for different players. sometimes i see a player more frequently so i develop a better comfort level. to me, dan haren proved himself in 2004 so i drafted him in 2005. as a cardinals fan i followed him closely and saw him pitch often. others disagreed. i cant explain why i believed in gomes after a partial season in 2005 and not francouer. i just didnt believe in francouer. sometimes a player has a track record and i still dont believe in him.

with regards to valverde, he has done more than just this partial season. outstanding years for a middle reliever in 2003 and 2005. he was battling injuries in 2004. i've also seen him pitch. he has good stuff. thats enough to convince me he is legit. as to whether or not its a good deal depends on the point setup.
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Postby Wade Boggs' Mustache » Tue May 23, 2006 1:54 pm

Thanks for the replies thus far. Reason I'm so curious is because with the 5 objections, it's already been vetoed (10 team league), but will go to the commish for final approval (Public CBS league). I have no idea how the commish will view this trade. If it's soley on points, than it looks like I lose, but if the commish looks more indeth at the trade, he may weigh track record more heavily than fair market value. Anyone actually have a trade vetoed only to be approved by the commish in a Public CBS league?
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Postby Wade Boggs' Mustache » Tue May 23, 2006 1:59 pm

A little more info on my league and it's scoring system:

Scoring for Pitching Categories
BBI - Walks Issued (Pitchers) -0.5 points
CG - Complete Games 5 points
ER - Earned Runs -1 point
HA - Hits Allowed -0.5 points
INN - Innings 2 points
K - Strikeouts (Pitcher) 1 point
S - Saves 10 points
W - Wins 10 points

Closers can be extremely valuable with 10 points a save, just a matter of getting save opportunities. But the trade is really out of my hands at this point. Just hope the commish looks at Valverde for what he's done this year. Oh yea, I have Lidge and Rivera as well, so you might say Valverde is expendable.
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Postby noseeum » Tue May 23, 2006 2:08 pm

In CBS default settings, closers are gold.

You should speak to your commish and explain this.

This post is perfect, considering the long thread regarding vetos. Pretty funny that it came up at the same time.

Make your case and hope it goes through. Or is the commish CBS itself? I forget.
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Postby Dan Lambskin » Tue May 23, 2006 2:22 pm

Wade Boggs' Mustache wrote:Thanks for the replies thus far. Reason I'm so curious is because with the 5 objections, it's already been vetoed (10 team league), but will go to the commish for final approval (Public CBS league). I have no idea how the commish will view this trade. If it's soley on points, than it looks like I lose, but if the commish looks more indeth at the trade, he may weigh track record more heavily than fair market value. Anyone actually have a trade vetoed only to be approved by the commish in a Public CBS league?


i've played in CBS leagues like this and i dont think i've ever seen a trade overturned. i'm also not sure if they have real people assigned to this or not
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Postby Willy T 4 MVP » Tue May 23, 2006 2:30 pm

boggs, love this topic. i think its fascinating to look at the discrepancy in market value between a guy producing 3/4 through a season and that same player's value the following season. take chase utley for example. i picked up him off waivers last year. just before the h2h playoffs i tried trading him for a solid SP. no takers. fast forward to this season, and probably only johan santana was drafted ahead of chase utley. there's so much BS and hype involved in fantasy baseball player valuations that it's tough to gauge how values will be decided going forward. another example. johnny gomes vs ryan howard. both had very similar seasons last year in limited playing time. howard got all the hype from magazines, "experts", etc and no one said a word about gomes. translation: i got gomes in the 16th round and howard went in the 5th.

if you ask me, when it comes to BS and hype, nothing comes close to what goes on with closers. from a fantasy perspective, it has been shown in recent years that any good setup man can be a very solid closer. i drafted valverde in the 14th round (after picking him up off waivers last season as well). he was a good closer last year. why did he fall to the 14th? bc toolbags like brandon funston and his little friends didn't talk about him all summer. this season, ppl seem to be jumping all over the valverde bandwagon. i traded smoltz and valverde for peavy 2 weeks ago and haven't looked back. same applies to chris ray. picked him up in the 11th/12th and traded him and Carlos Lee for big papi before he got hot and also haven't looked back.

to conclude my novel, if it was a bigger "name" closer (aka meaningless BS hype) then no one would be vetoing it. if on draft day you traded Street (the posterboy for overhyped closers) and bedard for carpenter i bet you no one would have said a word. in my experience, rather than fight AGAINST the idiotic logic of ppl in a fantasy league, you should work WITH it and exploit the hell out of it.
Last edited by Willy T 4 MVP on Tue May 23, 2006 2:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby mikhayl » Tue May 23, 2006 2:39 pm

In addition to DTF's eloquent trashing of the Fantasy establishment, it sounds a lot like you've got 5 bitter betties who wish they had made a play for Carp.

Yet another reason why the veto is teh suxor.
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