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Alfonso Soriano revisisted (Merged)

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Postby The Loveable Losers » Fri Sep 15, 2006 2:34 pm

slomo007 wrote:He was probably my biggest underestimation of the year. I was thinking 20/30. :-o

Suffice it to say, I'm avoiding the high price tag next year.


I'm in the same camp. I think preseason I was putting him in the 28/35 area with poor peripherals (due to obp and terrible support) and a batting average in the 260-270 range.

I still don't think he's going to go out next year for a repeat performance and given the lack of 2b eligibility and the very likely early first round price tag I can guarantee I won't own him.
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Postby jdsun1 » Fri Sep 15, 2006 5:23 pm

The Loveable Losers wrote:
slomo007 wrote:He was probably my biggest underestimation of the year. I was thinking 20/30. :-o

Suffice it to say, I'm avoiding the high price tag next year.


I'm in the same camp. I think preseason I was putting him in the 28/35 area with poor peripherals (due to obp and terrible support) and a batting average in the 260-270 range.

I still don't think he's going to go out next year for a repeat performance and given the lack of 2b eligibility and the very likely early first round price tag I can guarantee I won't own him.


I would pick him if he fell to the end of the first round but the price tag is just too steep at number 2 or 3. No second base eligibility too is a big let down.
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Postby dyuen87 » Fri Sep 15, 2006 5:27 pm

As a Soriano supporter going into this year, I wont be targetting him as a first rounder. This year was easily a career year, not to mention he was playing for a contract. I think he'll put up some sick numbers next year again, but he'll go for way more than he'll produce.
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Fri Sep 15, 2006 6:00 pm

jdsun1 wrote:
The Loveable Losers wrote:
slomo007 wrote:He was probably my biggest underestimation of the year. I was thinking 20/30. :-o

Suffice it to say, I'm avoiding the high price tag next year.


I'm in the same camp. I think preseason I was putting him in the 28/35 area with poor peripherals (due to obp and terrible support) and a batting average in the 260-270 range.

I still don't think he's going to go out next year for a repeat performance and given the lack of 2b eligibility and the very likely early first round price tag I can guarantee I won't own him.


I would pick him if he fell to the end of the first round but the price tag is just too steep at number 2 or 3. No second base eligibility too is a big let down.


It would have to be the very tail end of the first for me. He could have another year like this or he could be a 30/35 outfielder with a painful batting average and so-so peripherals. I'd take guys like Bay over him if he was going to put up the latter.
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Postby cordscords » Sun Sep 17, 2006 1:30 am

And he has reached 40/40.

8-o
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Postby Laean » Sun Sep 17, 2006 2:12 am

highest ops ever in his career, most hr ever in his career, contract year,.

at least 30 years old (never know with latin players), i doubt this season is the result of a natural development in his baseball skills.

i think he's due for a decline in production next season. could be as low as something like 28 33 .268, or as high as 32 36 .280.

either way, i'll take him in the 2nd round. i'll take my chances in the first round with a guaranteed producer like pujols, ortiz, manny, vlad, santana, etc.
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Sun Sep 17, 2006 3:38 am

Laean wrote:highest ops ever in his career, most hr ever in his career, contract year,.

at least 30 years old (never know with latin players), i doubt this season is the result of a natural development in his baseball skills.

i think he's due for a decline in production next season. could be as low as something like 28 33 .268, or as high as 32 36 .280.

either way, i'll take him in the 2nd round. i'll take my chances in the first round with a guaranteed producer like pujols, ortiz, manny, vlad, santana, etc.


He was a second rounder this year even with the issues about being in Washington...unfortunately I had to pass on him in the second round at the time because the team was threatening to suspend him when I drafted. :~(

That 28/33/.268 line is about what I expected out of him this year. I'd say as a revised number (assuming he resigns w/ Wash) I'd go with the second line you posted (32/36/.280) for 2007. That's mid-second round numbers when they come from an outfielder and mid-late first from a second baseman.
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Postby Laean » Sun Sep 17, 2006 5:54 am

The Loveable Losers wrote:
Laean wrote:highest ops ever in his career, most hr ever in his career, contract year,.

at least 30 years old (never know with latin players), i doubt this season is the result of a natural development in his baseball skills.

i think he's due for a decline in production next season. could be as low as something like 28 33 .268, or as high as 32 36 .280.

either way, i'll take him in the 2nd round. i'll take my chances in the first round with a guaranteed producer like pujols, ortiz, manny, vlad, santana, etc.


He was a second rounder this year even with the issues about being in Washington...unfortunately I had to pass on him in the second round at the time because the team was threatening to suspend him when I drafted. :~(

That 28/33/.268 line is about what I expected out of him this year. I'd say as a revised number (assuming he resigns w/ Wash) I'd go with the second line you posted (32/36/.280) for 2007. That's mid-second round numbers when they come from an outfielder and mid-late first from a second baseman.


guess i'm saying this year didn't change my mind on him at all.
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Postby BitterDodgerFan » Sun Sep 17, 2006 6:27 am

welcome to the club alfonso. ;-D ;-D ;-D congrats!
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