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Alfonso Soriano revisisted (Merged)

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Postby AcidRock23 » Sun May 21, 2006 9:23 am

I'll admit that I was down on him and wish I had him on my team right now. I kind of like him as a player, w/ the swing at just about everything approach, and am glad that he's doing well, even if the Nats are struggling. His fielding has been amusing to watch as well.
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Postby cordscords » Sun May 21, 2006 11:34 am

GSes wrote:
cordscords wrote:
jdsun1 wrote:
cordscords wrote:But outside of a power standpoint, he has been absoultely terrible in May.


How terrible?? He's putting up his usual stats. This is how he plays. Pure speed and power.


Heading into today he had a .229 BA and .239 OBP in the month of May.

Way below his career averages.


ya but he seems like a LOCK to hit 30HR, he is halfway there already with 8SB. Despite the crappy average in May, he has been having a big month, and that avg was part of a giant slump he had from the first 10 days of May, the last 10 days he is hitting close to 300 and doing well, he on pace for a big season and even if he starts to stink it up his HUGE first 2 months will have him end the season with good numbers.


I would say 30-35 is now the more appropriate # to project Soriano at.

He is currently on pace for 57 HR. If you take his '02-'05 HR/AB # (I'm not counting '01 because im a nice guy) he sits at 18.6

If you take his projected AB for the rest of the season (490) and divide it by his AB/HR you get 26.

26+15 = 41

And if you factor in the decline (I still think he is playing way over his head right now) he should wind up around 30-35 HR.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun May 21, 2006 11:43 am

I'm right here. And I still stand by what I said at the start. Soriano has still just played 15 of his games in RFK, where he's hitting almost 30 points worse than on the road. Right now his HR/OF rate is far, far above his lifetime rate. Notice that his overall extra base hits is right in line with his lifetime averages. His doubles are way down. As the season progresses more of those OF that he's hitting will become flyouts and doubles.

If you recall, most of us saw his value dropping not because of huge changes in HRs (where most of us saw high 20s) and SBs, but because of BA, R and RBIs.

On the road, the Nats average 4.67 runs per game.
At home they are averaging 3.5 runs per game.

Of the 119 games the Nats have left, 66 of them are at home.
Soriano's numbers will trend down. I don't have any doubt about that. In the end, his R and RBI will be about what I predicted, his BA will be about what I predicted, and he'll rank below the top 50 among all players in 5x5.
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Postby ukrneal » Sun May 21, 2006 12:31 pm

And don't forget that he's ultra-streaky. He'll put up nothing and then carry you on his own a few weeks.
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Postby NikkiSixx » Sun May 21, 2006 2:03 pm

cordscords wrote:
jdsun1 wrote:
cordscords wrote:But outside of a power standpoint, he has been absoultely terrible in May.


How terrible?? He's putting up his usual stats. This is how he plays. Pure speed and power.


Heading into today he had a .229 BA and .239 OBP in the month of May.

Way below his career averages.


Well he was 1-3 with a 3-run HR yesterday and 2 walks.


Today he is 2 for 2 with 2 stolen bases so far, his numbers are on the rise again.
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Postby NikkiSixx » Sun May 21, 2006 2:03 pm

cordscords wrote:
GSes wrote:
cordscords wrote:
jdsun1 wrote:
cordscords wrote:But outside of a power standpoint, he has been absoultely terrible in May.


How terrible?? He's putting up his usual stats. This is how he plays. Pure speed and power.


Heading into today he had a .229 BA and .239 OBP in the month of May.

Way below his career averages.


ya but he seems like a LOCK to hit 30HR, he is halfway there already with 8SB. Despite the crappy average in May, he has been having a big month, and that avg was part of a giant slump he had from the first 10 days of May, the last 10 days he is hitting close to 300 and doing well, he on pace for a big season and even if he starts to stink it up his HUGE first 2 months will have him end the season with good numbers.


I would say 30-35 is now the more appropriate # to project Soriano at.

He is currently on pace for 57 HR. If you take his '02-'05 HR/AB # (I'm not counting '01 because im a nice guy) he sits at 18.6

If you take his projected AB for the rest of the season (490) and divide it by his AB/HR you get 26.

26+15 = 41

And if you factor in the decline (I still think he is playing way over his head right now) he should wind up around 30-35 HR.


Proven player that is in his prime that is on pace to do what he has done his whole career.


Yeah, you are right, he is playing way over his head right now.
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Postby jayman » Sun May 21, 2006 2:09 pm

Add 2 more steals to that tally.

IMO -

This guy has a lot to prove. Everyone's been stuffing it in his face. Telling him what he can't do. How good he isn't. This is his contract year, if there was ever a player that had incenstive to kick butt, its Soriano. He hit < .270 once? Once. Sure, his number have been declining, but he's was playing in Texas after getting traded from the one team he loved. He's going to do just fine, and then he's going to stuff it in the Nats face when he walks.

How quickly people forget that this guy was nearly 40/40 while playing in Yankee Stadium. 1 HR short.
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Postby Zito is God » Sun May 21, 2006 2:22 pm

NikkiSixx wrote:
cordscords wrote:
GSes wrote:
cordscords wrote:
jdsun1 wrote:
cordscords wrote:But outside of a power standpoint, he has been absoultely terrible in May.


How terrible?? He's putting up his usual stats. This is how he plays. Pure speed and power.


Heading into today he had a .229 BA and .239 OBP in the month of May.

Way below his career averages.


ya but he seems like a LOCK to hit 30HR, he is halfway there already with 8SB. Despite the crappy average in May, he has been having a big month, and that avg was part of a giant slump he had from the first 10 days of May, the last 10 days he is hitting close to 300 and doing well, he on pace for a big season and even if he starts to stink it up his HUGE first 2 months will have him end the season with good numbers.


I would say 30-35 is now the more appropriate # to project Soriano at.

He is currently on pace for 57 HR. If you take his '02-'05 HR/AB # (I'm not counting '01 because im a nice guy) he sits at 18.6

If you take his projected AB for the rest of the season (490) and divide it by his AB/HR you get 26.

26+15 = 41

And if you factor in the decline (I still think he is playing way over his head right now) he should wind up around 30-35 HR.


Proven player that is in his prime that is on pace to do what he has done his whole career.


Yeah, you are right, he is playing way over his head right now.


Took the words right out of my mouth...and made me chuckle a little too. Nice post NikkiSixx.
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Postby GSes » Sun May 21, 2006 3:52 pm

I love it. A guy produces superstar numbers from 2002-2005, and now is one of the top players still in 2006! Thats 5 str8 years of production.

and they say "he is playing over his head and has a lot ot proove"

does any1 see the comedy in those statements?
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Postby NikkiSixx » Sun May 21, 2006 4:19 pm

2/2 with 2 walks and 2 SB's for Soriano today.



Update for avg. and obp. in may.

.253 avg. with a .312 obp.


Its nothing to brag about really, but everybody has these months (unless your name happens to be Albert Pujols). He has still posted 8 HR's and 5 SB's so far this month.



He is the first player that has reached 10 HR's (he has 15) and 10 SB's so far this year. The next closest is Beltran with 11 HR's and 5 SB's.



Great fantasy player, good real life player (especially in the OF rather than 2B. The only thing keeping him from great is his lack of patience at the plate...but 4 walks over the weekend is a great sign though! ;-D ).


GSes, I agree that there has been some comedy in this thread, some people are looking way too much into the negatives of Soriano and not realizing he is still the player he has always been.
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