The Miner Part 2 wrote:roto = skill
h2h weekly = skill and a lot of lucky moments.
Unless of course you're in a good league and everybody is roughly the same skill level. Then, luck is a huge factor... even in roto.
I drafted Abreu, Bay, A Ram, Peavy, Petitte, Sexson and Gagne with my first 7 picks. (Had the 9th pick)
Should I have expected Bay, A Ram, Petitte, Sexson and to a lesser extent Abreu to underperform like they have? What about Gagne hiding an injury and going on the DL after he pitched well this Spring?
Luck is definitely a factor... and this is coming from a guy who won two championships and finished the regular season in first the last three years of my money league.
On average I figure the skill/luck split is roughly:
30/70 in fantasy football
60/40 in H2H fantasy baseball
70/30 in Roto fantasy baeball
Of course these numbers will fluctuate greatly based on how good the league is. For example, winning a roto fantasy baseball league comprised of 10 cafe veterans might consist of 90% luck.
(unless of couse I won in which case it would be all skill)