How to account for luck in Fantasy Baseball

[josebach]

roto = skill

h2h weekly = skill and a lot of lucky moments.

Unless of course you're in a good league and everybody is roughly the same skill level. Then, luck is a huge factor... even in roto.


I drafted Abreu, Bay, A Ram, Peavy, Petitte, Sexson and Gagne with my first 7 picks. (Had the 9th pick)

Should I have expected Bay, A Ram, Petitte, Sexson and to a lesser extent Abreu to underperform like they have? What about Gagne hiding an injury and going on the DL after he pitched well this Spring?

Luck is definitely a factor... and this is coming from a guy who won two championships and finished the regular season in first the last three years of my money league.

On average I figure the skill/luck split is roughly:
30/70 in fantasy football
60/40 in H2H fantasy baseball
70/30 in Roto fantasy baeball

Of course these numbers will fluctuate greatly based on how good the league is. For example, winning a roto fantasy baseball league comprised of 10 cafe veterans might consist of 90% luck.

(unless of couse I won in which case it would be all skill)

[Jbyrdo]

Roto bothers me because you don't have to make as many tough decisions about bench pitchers. You don't have to decide between Start/Sit a bench pitcher who could give you that extra W and K's or could kill your ERA and WHIP.

H2H may be luck as far as matchups go, but it takes skill to make a team that can perform well consistently. In H2H hot and cold streaks affect your team in a huge way, so a skilled manager plays around this.

[Yoda]

roto = skill

h2h weekly = skill and a lot of lucky moments.

Agreed, to an extent. If you want to put in the work you can create a sophisticated enough point system and scheduling (more than 1 H-H matchup per-week), that creates an elaborate enough scoring system that your H-H league isnt about luck.

Most H-H point leagues dont even come close. Your average standard Sportsline and Yahoo H-H leagues dont come close to the skill level required for 5X5 roto.

I disagree H2H involves a lot of luck. It takes hell of a lot more skill to put together a consistently good team to beat any team, any given week especially when it counts.

[Grouperman941]

Roto bothers me because you don't have to make as many tough decisions about bench pitchers. You don't have to decide between Start/Sit a bench pitcher who could give you that extra W and K's or could kill your ERA and WHIP.

This is just not true. You might not see the impact right away, but if you manage your pitchers well. you can earn points in Ws, Ks, ERA, and WHIP. If you need wins, you can take risks the same as your example. Maybe you don't 'have' to make those decisions, but your team is better if you do.

As far as the original question, luck has to be an important part of the game. If you could just figure out the exact formula, plug in the players, and be pretty sure of the outcome, it would not be much fun.

You can manage perfectly based on all the data and still not do well or you can manage badly based on the data and still do well.

Over time, I think the effects of luck are reduced, which is why it seems roto is less luck.

Q: Is a guy who is 1 for his last 15 cold or is he due?

A: If I bench him, he is due; if I play him, he is cold.