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How to account for luck in Fantasy Baseball

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Postby johnsamo » Tue May 16, 2006 8:53 pm

I'd say about 1/4 of it is luck... you can't account for things like freak injuries... Your pitcher throws a great game and the closer blows it, that sort of stuff. Our a lot of your hitters are facing an ace and the ace is off that night.

Over time, luck evens out, but with "time" I'm talking decades.
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Postby benjapage » Tue May 16, 2006 9:10 pm

i'm totally venting in the wrong forum, but hudson just is getting scroood by silly bounces. that's three hits (and one consequent run) that should have been outs.

argh. stupid luck.

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Postby bleach168 » Tue May 16, 2006 10:03 pm

To account for luck, you have to assume you're going to have the worst luck imaginable. Low expectations baby!

When my CC Sabathia went down in the first game of year, I just laughed it off. I just knew something like that was gonna happen.
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Postby Rhino Tuff » Tue May 16, 2006 11:48 pm

I'm normally an extreme optimist. With fantasy baseball I'm learning that the bases are half empty...
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Postby The Miner Part 2 » Wed May 17, 2006 12:00 am

roto = skill

h2h weekly = skill and a lot of lucky moments.
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Postby Bukoski77 » Wed May 17, 2006 12:32 am

The Miner Part 2 wrote:roto = skill

h2h weekly = skill and a lot of lucky moments.



Agreed, to an extent. If you want to put in the work you can create a sophisticated enough point system and scheduling (more than 1 H-H matchup per-week), that creates an elaborate enough scoring system that your H-H league isnt about luck.

Most H-H point leagues dont even come close. Your average standard Sportsline and Yahoo H-H leagues dont come close to the skill level required for 5X5 roto.
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Re: How to account for luck in Fantasy Baseball

Postby vykeengfan » Wed May 17, 2006 3:22 am

Rhino Tuff wrote:I like to believe that Fantasy Baseball isn't about luck. Fantasy Football is all luck. In Baseball, you should be able to look at matchups and trends and numbers and make logical, informed decisions on who to play and who to sit.



I totally disagree with this comment!!! :-t
I'm assuming that when you set up your draft rankings, you pull names out of a hat? And when you have to decide between what appears to be two even players to play in a given week, you flip a coin? In fantasy football, it's ALL about "matchups and trends and numbers" when you're deciding who to play, sit, draft, pick up or cut. Before the draft, good, thorough fantasy football owners should be looking at each teams' schedule, raising/lowering the value of running backs whose schedule is weak/strong against the run, or receivers whose schedule is weak/strong against the pass. Were there any changes to a team's offensive line? That could make a big difference in a runningback and quarterback's productivity. These are just a few things that you have to consider when putting a team together. How is that any different from baseball? Where's the luck in that?
Do you think it's luck when a sleeper in football actually pans out? Do you blindly select guys in the later rounds hoping that one of them will overachieve and give you an edge in fantasy baseball? No, I'm sure you don't. Just as I'm sure you wouldn't in fantasy football, either.
During the season, you look at matchups. Do you play marginal or struggling pitchers in day games at Colorado? Probably not. Do you play marginal or struggling running backs against the Chargers run defense, who ranked #1? Probably not.
I'm done rambling, hopefully you've seen my point. I'll prob'ly bump this in the morning so you can explain how fantasy football is all luck.
BTW, if you couldn't tell, fantasy football is my thing; fantasy baseball is just something I'm doing to kill time and because my buddies needed a 10th team.
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Postby vykeengfan » Wed May 17, 2006 2:29 pm

so how is fantasy football all luck?
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Postby garf112 » Wed May 17, 2006 2:56 pm

I would argue that fantasy football has alot more of a luck element to it. In baseball, you can pretty much figure out which guys are going to be hurt year in and year out with some exceptions every year. You can also predict a guys' stats alot easier from year to year. And your stats are cumulative (at least in roto, which is the only fantasy baseball i will play).

Don't give me run-defense this pass-defense that. On a week to week basis, you can get totally screwed. Your point totals could be 110 every week, but if your opponents consistently score 111 you are SOL. I have had the 2nd most points in a league without getting into the playoffs.

Fantasy football is such a crock. I'd rather put money on a 12-1 shot in a horse race than put money into a fantasy football team. Half the time the guy that wins is the one that has his computer next to his TV so he can pick up a running back after the starter gets hurt. This is similar to closer situations in baseball, but that is only one position, and it is not the most important one.
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Postby benjapage » Wed May 17, 2006 3:08 pm

garf112 wrote:Half the time the guy that wins is the one that has his computer next to his TV so he can pick up a running back after the starter gets hurt.


waivers, hello?

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