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How to account for luck in Fantasy Baseball

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How to account for luck in Fantasy Baseball

Postby Rhino Tuff » Tue May 16, 2006 6:57 pm

I like to believe that Fantasy Baseball isn't about luck. Fantasy Football is all luck. In Baseball, you should be able to look at matchups and trends and numbers and make logical, informed decisions on who to play and who to sit.

This year more than ever I believe stinking luck is creeping into my fantasy baseball league. My good friend in the same brutal cutthroat league has been very good in our 12 team H2H points keeper league. He has three big guns injured: Derrek Lee, Coco Crisp, and Rich Harden. He's been able to coast to a 5-1 record by having plug ins like Casey Blake, Shawn Green, and Akinori Otsuka start getting hot. I'm not begrudging my friends scouting capability but geez, it's getting ridiculous.

Hey, lady luck finally smiled on me last night. I'm going against the guy who has Brandon Webb. Webb is cruising until he coughs up the lead to Chan Ho Park, but luckily 'Zona came back to tie and eventually win the game for my closer Valverde. Crazy game.

Is anyone else seeing luck bearing it's ugly head in their by the numbers approach? Do people know of any good voodoo rituals to get luck on their side? :-?
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Postby The_Met_Threat » Tue May 16, 2006 7:02 pm

I usually sacrifice 2 dead chickens to my computer cd rom drive before the first game starts for each day. Its kinda hard to stuff em in there but its worth it.
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Postby Rhino Tuff » Tue May 16, 2006 7:20 pm

How about something to get it to stop raining in Pittsburgh for Harang's start tonight? :-o
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Postby Howie » Tue May 16, 2006 7:48 pm

The_Met_Threat wrote:I usually sacrifice 2 dead chickens to my computer cd rom drive before the first game starts for each day. Its kinda hard to stuff em in there but its worth it.


You sacrafice chickens that are already dead? That's dedication. ;-D
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Postby The_Met_Threat » Tue May 16, 2006 8:08 pm

Howie wrote:
The_Met_Threat wrote:I usually sacrifice 2 dead chickens to my computer cd rom drive before the first game starts for each day. Its kinda hard to stuff em in there but its worth it.


You sacrafice chickens that are already dead? That's dedication. ;-D


The CD-Rom said he cant eat them when they are alive.
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Postby Thursday » Tue May 16, 2006 8:08 pm

I play in a league with idiots, so anytime i'm not in first, it's always about luck. Mine was HORRIBLE the first 4 weeks of the season, when i was playing all the hottest guys in the league, and getting crushed. Now the tables have turned, and my team also has warmed up, so i'm doing better, in 4th place.

Just to prove my point about "league with idiots", the guy i'm playing this week is employing Lyle Overbay and Brady Clark in STARTING positions.
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Postby calecalo » Tue May 16, 2006 8:12 pm

Baseball is a game of regression towards the mean. I had a buddy in my league last year run away with first place for the entire first half of the year (It was his first year of FBB). Everyone in the league was disgusted. But, After leading from basically week 1, his team cooled off after the All-Star break and he finished in 5th place. (Still respectable)

In the end, you just have to believe in the fact that the loss of Lee and Harden will eventually hurt the guy and Otsuka isn't going to carry him to a championship. 162 games is a loooooong time.
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Postby BritSox » Tue May 16, 2006 8:18 pm

Given that he's had the rotten luck of losing three top ten rounders to injuries, surely you don't begrudge him a bit of luck with his replacements?
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Re: How to account for luck in Fantasy Baseball

Postby bdrotoronto » Tue May 16, 2006 8:42 pm

Rhino Tuff wrote:I like to believe that Fantasy Baseball isn't about luck. Fantasy Football is all luck. In Baseball, you should be able to look at matchups and trends and numbers and make logical, informed decisions on who to play and who to sit.

...

in our 12 team H2H points keeper league.

...

It's really the H2H aspect that creates the luck aspect more than anything else. I think Fantasy Football would be a lot less about luck if it was played on a roto basis rather than H2H. H2H distorts things by making your stats week-by-week rather than cumulative, which puts extra emphasis on when your players go hot and cold, and also on the luck factor re: which particular team you happen to be going against any given week.

Even then, there will still always be some luck involved in roto too, though.. I don't care to count the number of times I've left multi-HR games or strong pitching performances on the bench.. :~(

(BTW, your story actually reminds me of my FFL.. the same guy has won two years in a row, every year people think he has the worst draft and then he wins every year by virtue of having the fewest points against in the league.. :-? makes no sense.. it's like he has a voodoo doll against everyone else exactly the week he plays them..)
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Postby benjapage » Tue May 16, 2006 8:47 pm

BAH.

luck's a major part of baseball in general. you can do your best to minimize it, but it will always be a factor.

looking to minimize it? study the trends. look at the numbers. it will still be subject to injury, personnel moves, weather, and acts of nature.

edit: for instance, the "earned run" just bestowed upon hudson. PLEASE. that big bouncing ball should have been fielded by renteria. :-C

second edit: AND for instance :-[ that little liner that chipper just dropped. DANG.

b
yeah, yes...
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